- Oklahoma is favored by how much vs Oklahoma State?
- Boston College isn’t great, but they’re good enough.
- Let’s not take the points in that Michigan/Rutgers game. Let’s just not.
We went 1-1 again last week, bringing us to 18-14-0 for the season. As the season winds down, we get into rivalry games that tend to produce weird results, which is great for our contrarian betting style.
College Football Week 11 Picks
Here’s the games we’ve circled this week. These odds are from Bovada.
Clemson (#2) at Boston College (#17)
|Clemson (#2)||-20.5 (-110)|
|Boston College (#17)||+20.5 (-110)|
All we do is fade road favorites, and Clemson is the second-biggest road favorite of the week. Michigan’s favored by 39.5 points at Rutgers, but I’m nervous about Rutgers generally.
Clemson at Boston College Statistical Comparison
|2018 Stat||Clemson||Boston College|
|S&P+ Defensive Rank||2nd||28th|
|S&P+ Offensive Rank||7th||65th|
|S&P+ Overall Rank||2nd||38th|
Is Clemson going to win this game? Of course. Is Boston College overrated by the Playoff Committee? You bet. Is a 20.5 point spread a little too much for a road favorite in November? Yes.
You’re not just throwing a flag on the spread here. Boston College is certainly a fine team, and they’ve done some great things against the hollowed-out ACC this year. They don’t have the talent to keep up with Clemson, but they’ll keep things tighter than Clemson fans would like. AJ Dillon is a great running back who might even get some Heisman votes. The pass defense is good enough that Clemson will prefer to run the ball, and that eats clock and prevents a blowout.
Betting Tip: I’ll bet against a 20-point road favorite, no problem.
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (#6)
|Oklahoma State||+21.0 (-110)|
|Oklahoma (#6)||-21.0 (-110)|
Ever hear the phrase “take the points in a shootout?” Well…
Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State Statistical Comparison
|2018 Stat||Oklahoma||Oklahoma State|
|S&P+ Defensive Rank||53rd||67th|
|S&P+ Offensive Rank||1st||13th|
|S&P+ Overall Rank||4th||23rd|
I understand that Oklahoma’s defense has been improving ever since Mike Stoops was shown the door, and thus season-long stats aren’t going to be perfectly accurate. I also understand that Oklahoma gave up 46 points to Texas Tech last weekend, and Mike Stoops was nowhere to be seen.
Oklahoma will eventually win this game, but not before Mike Gundy dials up some weird nonsense and the Pokes break off some big plays. Any betting cliche you care to name, be it rivalries, or shootouts, or trap games, or whatever, has this as a tighter, fightier game than a 20.5-point spread allows.
Betting Tip: I take the points in this game every time the spread gets big and I’ve yet to be disappointed.