Dee Friedman
- #15 Texas faces #5 Georgia on January 1 in New Orleans.
- The Longhorns are in their first major bowl since 2009.
- UGA was the first school left out of the four-team College Football Playoff.
After Georgia gave Alabama a heavyweight fight in the SEC Championship Game, many argued that they should be among the team’s invited to the College Football Playoff. When the committee opted for Oklahoma, that left the Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl, not ideal but a solid consolation prize.
Once-mighty Texas is back in prime-time after becoming a regular in the Alamo Bowl in recent seasons. Tom Herman’s squad beat Oklahoma the first time they played, but lost to the Sooners in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Let’s examine the latest odds from Bovada (as of Dec. 21).
2019 Cotton Bowl Odds
| Team | Spread at Bovada | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| #15 Texas | +13 (-110) | +375 | Over 58 (-110) |
| #5 Georgia | -13 (-110) | -550 | Under 58 (-110) |
After three forgettable seasons under Charlie Strong, Herman assumed the reins in Austin last year and went 7-6. This year, the Horns have four losses but haven’t been embarrassed once. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger is a Heisman candidate to consider in the future.
Consensus is that Georgia is the best two-loss team in the country. Their only regular-season setback was at LSU, and everybody knows how hard it is to play in Death Valley. Falling to ‘Bama in a tight game is better than most team’s wins. However, the spread is big, so what do the numbers show?
Texas vs Georgia Statistical Comparison
| 2018 Stat | Texas | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-4 | 11-2 |
| S&P+ Defensive Rank | 55th | 16th |
| S&P+ Offensive Rank | 28th | 3rd |
| S&P+ Overall Rank | 36th | 3rd |
It is no surprise that the stats strongly prefer Georgia. They could very easily be preparing for a playoff game. However, Texas has played well against all comers, and they are getting a boat load of points. Herman is 7-2 against the spread at Texas as an underdog. When he was at Houston, his Cougars beat both Florida State and Oklahoma.
How to Bet the Sugar Bowl
While Texas is building, Georgia is already there. So long as the Bulldogs show up and are enthused to play despite missing the playoffs, they have much better players, many of whom are battle tested. The Dogs won the Rose Bowl and played in the Championship Game last year. Quarterback Jake Fromm took major steps as a sophomore, and everybody will be watching him closely next year.
There is a reason this spread keeps going up. Get it before it hits two touchdowns
