Al Okhdood vs Al Fayha FC: Wrong Team Favored

  • Al Okhdood Club vs Al Fayha FC, Saudi Pro League
  • October 20, 2023
  • 11 AM EST
  • Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Najran, Saudi Arabia
  • FOX Soccer Plus

Al Okhdood host Al Fayha in a clash of mid-table clubs this Friday. Both teams have managed only two wins so far this season, but Fayha’s 5 draws have earned them the 9th spot. Fashion Sakala has led Al Fayha with 4 goals this season as an import from Zambia. Can he make the difference in what should be a tightly-contested affair? Continue reading to access betting odds, news, stats and an official prediction for the match.

Al Okhdood vs Al Fayha FC Betting Odds

Al Okhdood are the underdogs in this contest despite playing at home. The club has been given a price of (+190) to win the match. At highly-rated online sportsbook BetUS, the visitors are lined at (+132), meaning their implied probability to gain all 3 points sits around 43%. A draw, which has been a common outcome for Al Fayha so far, is priced rather low at (+235). This indicates the sportsbooks’ strong belief in a potential 1-1 tie, in which both clubs share in the spoils.

Saudi Pro LeagueXBet ReviewBetUS ReviewBovadaMyBookie Review
Al Okhdood+190+184+185+190
Al Fayha+126+132+130+126

To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our soccer tips and learn to make bets online.

The Power of the “Big 4” Teams in the Saudi Pro League

The Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund has played a pivotal role in the nation’s substantial sports investments in recent years, notably taking a bold step into the world of golf with the establishment of the LIV golf league. Moreover, the Fund has recently assumed ownership of four of the top teams in the Saudi Professional League, namely Al Nassr, Al Ittihad, Al Ahli, and Al Hilal. This newfound financial backing has empowered these clubs to engage in extensive player acquisitions. This includes global stars such as Neymar, Cristiano Ronaldo, and the previous year’s Ballon d’Or recipient, Karim Benzema.

Consequently, these clubs enjoy a significant edge over their less financially endowed rivals. Their players benefit from superior facilities, perform in stadiums with larger seating capacities, and receive robust social media support. In the realm of sports betting, it is hardly surprising that these clubs consistently feature as heavy favorites. Any bettor should exercise caution when considering these prominent factors that tilt the odds in favor of a select few teams in the league.

Al Okhdood Club Breakdown

Along with Al Fayha, Al Okhdood represents one of the smaller clubs in the Saudi Pro League who have not benefited from the influx of European talent. In fact, there is a notable absence of any such prominent players, with only the young midfielder Alex Collado coming from western Europe by way of Spain. So far, the 24-year-old has amassed 12 shots but has yet to score, good enough for 2nd on the team. Leandre Tawamba, a Cameroonian forward, has been the most active offensive player and will look to score his 3rd goal in this 2023-24 campaign on Friday.

Al Okhdood’s primary goalkeeper, Paulo Vitor of Brazil, has performed fairly well this season. The 6’5” giant’s save-to-goal ratio is right on par with the average at 71%. 12 shots have passed the keeper by, which is not a bad metric considering more than half the league has conceded just many.

However, the club has been unfortunate on the other team’s end of the pitch. Al Okhdood have managed an average of 0.82 expected goals per game, but have only actually scored 0.56. This reveals a possibility that Al Okhdood have actually been better on paper than they have performed on the pitch, which could be accredited to unlucky shots near goal. In fact, Al Okhdood have scored just 5 goals all year, the worst total of any Saudi Pro League club.

If you believe Al Okhdood’s scoring woes continue, you can bet Al Fayha to win at plus-money odds currently.

Al FayhaTo Defeat Al Okhdood
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Al Fayha FC Results and Statistics

Al Fayha have been one of the best defensive teams all season, allowing just 7 goals. This has helped the team to a favorable position in the table considering their poor offensive output. Sakala has done well for the club, but he is really the only member of Al Fayha with any consistent production. This begs the question: is Al Fayha’s run of form sustainable? They currently sport a positive goal differential, but regression to the mean may catch up to them.

Expected goals statistics indicate Al Fayha’s defense may not be as stout as it seems. The club has conceded an average of 0.78 goals per game, but expected goals trump 1.3. With almost half a goal difference per game, bettors and pundits should be wary of potential regression. Al Fayha have been fortunate to allow such few goals and they may not be so lucky the next time out.

Al Fayha is riding a 5-match unbeaten streak across all competitions. Back-to-back matches against Al Riyadh proved fruitful for the Al Majma’ah residents, who were able to win both. Earlier in the season, Al Fayha managed to draw the league-best Al Hilal with a strike from none other than Fashion Sakala. Earning points against quality opponents, and taking care of business against the rest, is a recipe for success in any soccer league.

If Al Fayha are to pick up some points on the road, it’s likely they will do so in a low-scoring affair. This makes 0-0 and 1-1 outcomes highly likely. If you agree, you can bet on a level score at BetUS.

DrawAl Okhdood vs Al Fayha
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Al Okhdood vs Al Fayha FC Prediction and Free Betting Pick

Al Fayha clearly look like the better team, but the underlying statistics tell a different story. This team is on a roll, but many games have been against worse opponents and in different competitions, like the AFC Champions League and the Saudi King’s Cup.

Al Fayha’s defense has been more than lucky to allow only 7 goals all season. Additionally, the team relies heavily on Fashion Sakala for offensive production. If their star does not perform to standards, where else can this team turn to?

Home advantage is a big factor in the Saudi Pro League. Al Okhdood will host this match at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Najran with support from their fans. After an unfortunate series of results, it feels like this team is being undervalued in a home spot. I think Al Okhdood should be the favorites in this matchup, but the line is not reflecting that.

I am advocating for a play on Al Okhdood at anything better than (+165). So at (+190), we are getting clear value in what should be a draw or home win. However, in a lesser-known league, volatility is likely. Be conservative in your betting approach and consider a smaller stake.

Al OkhdoodTo Defeat Al Fayha
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Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports and writing as a journalist. Now, he provides detailed betting analysis to help others profit off their sports knowledge too. Will spots insights casual fans may miss and delivers his guidance in a direct, no-nonsense style. In his downtime, you can find him unwinding on the couch and watching foreign film classics.