Atalanta vs Sporting Lisbon: Sporting is Undervalued

Atalanta welcome Sporting Lisbon to Italy for the reverse fixture in the Europa League Group D. Thursday’s match is critical to the outcome of the group, with an Atalanta win guaranteeing the top spot. Atalanta upset Sporting in Portugal last time they played in early October. Continue reading to access an expert Atalanta vs Sporting prediction and explore the latest statistics for the Sporting Lisbon Europa League group.

  • Atalanta BC vs Sporting CP, Europa League Group Stage
  • November 30, 2023
  • 12:45 PM EST
  • Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo, Italy
  • Paramount+

Atalanta vs Sporting Lisbon Betting Odds

Atalanta are the favorites in the second meeting between Sporting this fall, currently available across the market at (+110). Sporting Lisbon are given (+225 odds) by highly-rated online sportsbook BetOnline, good for an implied probability to win of 30.8%. If neither club can break a tie after 90 minutes of play, a draw will pay out sharp bettors at (+270). 

Europa LeagueBetUS ReviewBovadaMyBookie ReviewXBet Review
Sporting Lisbon+225+225+220+220

To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our soccer betting tips and discover Europa League betting odds.

Sporting Lisbon Ending 2023 on a High Note

Sporting CP’s recent schedule has been full of Ws in the win/loss column. Domestically, no one is placed higher than Sporting, who have won 9 of the first 11 games.  In their first Europa League match this season, Sporting CP were able to take care of business vs Austrian counterparts Sturm Graz. Two late goals were enough to complete the comeback after falling down a score.

However, the reverse was true in their second match. Atalanta took firm control of the game after a shot by Matteo Ruggeri made it 2-0 in the first half. Sporting attempted another comeback but fell short, with only one goal earned via penalty kick. 

Sporting’s loss to Benfica last time out was their first in any competition since they fell to Atalanta in early October. A red card picked up at the beginning of the second half spelled their demise. This has been a frequent issue for Sporting, whose defense is tackle-heavy and is not afraid to engage defenders. After going down a man, Benfica picked up two goals in stoppage time to complete the comeback.

Sporting LisbonTo Defeat Atalanta
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Atalanta and Sporting Lisbon Europa League Group D

In this group, the competition seems close, but realistically, it’s a battle mainly between Sporting Lisbon and the Italian side Atalanta. Sturm Graz and Raków Częstochowa aren’t anticipated to progress or seriously challenge the top clubs. There’s a noticeable disparity in talent and experience, largely due to the domestic leagues these teams compete in. Serie A in Italy and Portugal’s Primeira Liga hold more prestige and are considered superior compared to Austria’s Bundesliga or Poland’s Ekstraklasa, where Raków originates.

The Europa League, while seen as a step below the Champions League, still holds significant esteem as Europe’s secondary tournament. Sporting made an impressive run last year, even surpassing Arsenal in the Round of 16 after finishing 3rd in their Champions League group. Sporting picked up results in both editions of their fixture against Rakow recently, picking up a draw on the road and a win at home. With only two games left to go, Thursday’s match against Atalanta could very likely decide the winner of the group.

Although Atalanta and Sporting CP are favorites for the UEFA Europa League this season, it’s highly probable that a strong club, unable to progress from the Champions League group stage, will make a substantial impact in the lower tier. Clubs like PSG, AC Milan, and Dortmund, facing tough challenges in the “Group of Death” scenario in the UCL, could potentially cause chaos in the Europa League.

AtalantaTo Defeat Sporting Lisbon
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Atalanta vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction and Free Betting Pick

To put it simply, Atalanta is overperforming in the Europa League. While still a great team and capable of winning it all, an undefeated start is quite surprising for a club that has won only half of its dozen domestic matches. Sporting is undoubtedly inconsistent and is still struggling to keep all 11 players on the pitch. However, they can compete with the top teams in Europe any day.

I think this line is putting way too much stock in Atalanta’s win in Lisbon last month. Sporting did look slow against Rakow as well, but the Polish are a tough out, especially when at home. I think Sporting is clearly the side to back in this match, but how should we do so?

Sporting’s moneyline has been steamed heavily by sharp bettors. Opening at as high as (+319) on some sportsbooks, their line is now down almost a whole dollar from that initial price. At (+225), I think most of the value has been zapped. 

XBet and MyBookie are both hanging a (-130) line on the double chance market for Sporting. I like this angle as it covers both a win or a draw. Sporting will be looking for a result to stay firmly in the second spot and still keep hopes alive at winning the group outright next matchday. Therefore, trust in Sporting to get a result in Italy.

Sporting Lisbon +0.5vs Atalanta
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Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports and writing as a journalist. Now, he provides detailed betting analysis to help others profit off their sports knowledge too. Will spots insights casual fans may miss and delivers his guidance in a direct, no-nonsense style. In his downtime, you can find him unwinding on the couch and watching foreign film classics.