Atletico vs Real Madrid Prediction: Back Home Side

Read MyTopSportsbooks’s Atletico vs Real Madrid prediction and explore stats and the latest Copa del Rey odds.

  • Club Atletico de Madrid vs Real Madrid CF, Copa del Rey Round of 16
  • January 18, 2024
  • 3:30 PM EST
  • Civitas Metropolitan Stadium, Madrid, Spain
  • ESPN+

Atletico vs Real Madrid Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?

Real Madrid are favorites despite this event taking place in the Metropolitano. The world-famous club is priced at (+145) to win, good for an implied probability of 40.8%. Atleti is not too far behind, however, with a line of (+185). A draw would pay out at (+245), but remember: this game will end in penalty kicks. So betting a draw is betting on the game to be tied after 90 minutes.

Copa del ReyBetUS ReviewXBet ReviewBovadaMyBookie Review
Atletico Madrid+180+185+180+185
Real Madrid+145+145+145+145

To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our soccer betting tips and learn about La Liga betting odds.

Copa del Rey Odds and Format

Affectionately known by many as Copa del Rey or La Copa, The Campeonato de España–Copa de Su Majestad el Rey is the top Spanish domestic knockout tournament. The victors of the Copa del Rey secure a spot in the UEFA Europa League for the subsequent season.

Barcelona stands as the most triumphant club in the competition, boasting 31 Spanish Cup titles. Following closely is Athletic Bilbao with 23 titles and Real Madrid takes third with 20. Real Madrid, the most recent champion, clinched victory against Osasuna in the 2023 final. A total of 126 clubs from various leagues and levels across the nation vie for the prestigious trophy. This year, the final takes place at La Cartuja in Seville on April 6, 2024.

Except for the semifinals, every round is played in a single-match format. Atleti and Real Madrid entered the tournament in the second round as LaLiga members. Atleti was tasked with a visit to Lugo, which they easily dispatched by a score of 3-1 to earn their advancement to the Round of 16. Los Blancos beat Arandina by a similar score. 

Real Madrid Rumors: Ancelotti Extends, Mbappe Arrives?

Real sits at the top of the La Liga table alongside Girona, boasting an impressive 45 points with just one loss this season. Their lone defeat came against their Madrid rivals at the Metropolitano, marking their most recent stumble domestically or internationally.

In recent developments, manager Carlo Ancelotti has agreed to extend his contract until 2026 during the holiday season. Real Madrid’s long-serving president, Florentino Perez, finalized the deal after discussions with Ancelotti. The contract includes specific conditions set by Ancelotti, stipulating that Real Madrid must secure a center-back in January due to long-term injuries to Eder Militao and David Alaba.

Adding to the intrigue, rumors of Parisian superstar Kylian Mbappe joining Real Madrid after the current season have gained momentum. Although Spanish reports are often regarded as notoriously unreliable, they have further linked the World Cup winner to Real Madrid. Madrid appears to be the only team, aside from his current outfit PSG, with the financial capacity to sign a player of Mbappe’s caliber, making a potential move to Spain increasingly plausible in the coming years.

Real MadridTo Defeat Atletico Madrid
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Atletico Madrid Season Statistics and Recent H2H

In contrast to Real Madrid’s remarkable collection of 12 Super Cup trophies, Atletico has secured the coveted Spanish silverware only twice. Notably, their most recent triumph occurred in 2014 against a Real side led by Ancelotti, emerging victorious in a two-legged final.

Diego Simeone’s team is currently on the brink of elimination from the LaLiga title race. A heartbreaking 4-3 defeat to Girona has dealt a blow to their aspirations, with Girona now level with Real at the top of the table. The loss has dropped Atleti to a tie for 4th place, yet they remain strong contenders for a future European appearance.

Both clubs are returning from their Saudi Arabian escapades and jumping straight back into the fire for a Madrid derby full of consequences. The loser will be booted out of the esteemed Copa del Rey with a sour taste in their mouths, giving their fellow city foes a spot in the quarterfinals. 

Atletico vs Real Madrid Prediction and Free Betting Pick

Real is coming off a dominant victory in a complimentary Clasico courtesy of the Spanish Super Cup. Vinicius Jr. found himself in a strong return to form with a hat trick in the first half alone. Now, Vini and his jet-lagged teammates must come down from the highs of trophy jubilee and enter the Metropolitano with winning ways on their mind.

This might not come so easy for Real, as Atleti have successfully defended their home turf on 25 straight occasions. This run includes victories in 11 of the past 12 matches, at a ground where Atleti have not lost in over a year. With Atletico Madrid returning home early to prepare after being knocked out by Real in the Super Cup, they have now had 8 day’s rest. This will give them a 4-day rest advantage over their opponents which should come in handy.

I believe Atletico Madrid should win this match at home, yet the line is the other way around. Atletico Madrid defeated Real 3-1 last time they hosted their rivals. All in all, bet Atleti to win, but since our edge is small, keep it to just a half unit. These teams may very well play out to penalty kicks at the Metropolitano.

Atletico MadridTo Defeat Real Madrid
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Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports and writing as a journalist. Now, he provides detailed betting analysis to help others profit off their sports knowledge too. Will spots insights casual fans may miss and delivers his guidance in a direct, no-nonsense style. In his downtime, you can find him unwinding on the couch and watching foreign film classics.