PSG vs Toulouse Prediction: Toulouse to Lose Big

Paris Saint-Germain will play Toulouse on their home grounds to determine this year’s winner of the Trophee des Champions. A one-match tournament played between the winner of Ligue 1 and the Coupe de France, PSG will look to add to their 11-trophy cabinet. A victory would be their second consecutive Trophee des Champions win and mark their 10th win in the last 11 years, with only Lille interrupting the streak in 2021. Read on to access an expert PSG vs Toulouse prediction and explore stats and the latest Paris Saint-Germain odds.

  • Paris Saint-Germain FC vs Toulouse FC, Trophee des Champions
  • January 3, 2024
  • 2:45 PM EST
  • Parc des Princes, Paris, France
  • Fubo

PSG vs Toulouse Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?

Paris Saint-Germain are (-455) favorites to defend their home territory and earn a win at Parc des Princes. Toulouse will play the role of underdog. They are currently priced at (+900), giving them an implied probability to pull off an upset of 10%. A draw pays out at (+550) at highly-rated sportsbook BetUS.

Premier LeagueBetOnline ReviewBetUS ReviewBovada
Paris Saint-Germain-455-455-455

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What is the Trophee des Champions?

The Trophee des Champions is a French trophy determined by an annual match between the winners of Ligue 1, French’s top domestic flight, and their domestic Cup, the Coupe de France. This year’s Ligue 1 winner is Paris Saint-Germain, so they draw Toulouse, first-time winners of the Coupe de France. Typically played in a neutral location, logistical issues regarding a trip to Thailand or the Democratic Republic of the Congo led officials to settle on the famous Paris stadium for this year’s location. This decision comes much to the chagrin of Toulouse, who will now play effectively a road game for their second-ever, top-level domestic trophy.

Ligue 1 serves as the pinnacle of French football, representing the country’s premier soccer league. Traditionally comprising 20 teams, the end of the 2023-24 season will see 4 teams relegated and only 2 promoted, reducing the total to 18 teams. Ranked as Europe’s fifth-best league, Ligue 1’s landscape is largely dominated by the globally celebrated Paris Saint-Germain.

The Coupe de France is the top cup competition in France, played knockout-style since its initiation in 1917.  Coupled with unpredictable draws and single-match encounters (without replays), winning the Coupe de France can pose a challenge for larger clubs. The competition often favors amateur clubs, as it obliges higher-ranked professional teams to play as the away team when drawn against lower-league opponents if they are competing multiple levels above them.

Paris Saint-Germain Expected Goals Statistics

Paris Saint-Germain boasts the most expected goals accrued in Ligue 1 so far this season at 1.91 per game. Additionally, their expected goals allowed is quite strong at 1.25. Their actual results are even more flattering, with a whopping 2.47 goals per game to 0.82, putting them 1st and 2nd in each category, respectively.

However, it’s vital to acknowledge that the season remains in its infancy, with just ten games played. Expected goals statistics can be misleading within such limited samples, particularly due to PSG’s inclination to secure early leads in their matches. When opponents are behind, there’s a tendency for more opportunities to accumulate expected goals at an unusually rapid rate, disrupting the typical flow of the game. As a result, this accumulation of expected goals might not accurately represent the genuine performance of both teams.

Paris Saint-GermainTo Defeat Toulouse
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Toulouse at the Brink of Relegation

Toulouse is in the midst of a dire domestic situation, as the Coupe de France-winning club now finds themselves in the relegation zone. A potential 2nd trophy may serve as merely a shiny distraction to their fanbase and front office, who could quickly become disconcerted by the prospects of relegation to Ligue 2.

The club hasn’t won a French game since October 1, although they have won twice in the Europa League, including a shocker over Premier League-leading Liverpool. In fact, they have won only two domestic games all year. If Toulouse can pick things up on the attacking end, they may be able to jump back into the middle of the table. Evidenced by their Coupe de France run, they have what it takes to earn consistent results, but new manager Carles Martinez Novell has been unable to make it happen so far.

ToulouseTo Defeat Paris Saint-Germain
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PSG vs Toulouse Prediction and Free Betting Pick

Coming off an extended holiday vacation, Paris Saint-Germain should be well-prepared for this hopeful Toulouse side. Despite the clubs playing out to a 1-1 draw in August, I do not see much hope for the underdogs to succeed in this matchup. Toulouse have scored 15 goals all season in Ligue 1, compared to 42 for PSG. That number is second-worst in the country, only above bottom-dwellers Clermont Foot.

As they say in many ways around the world, good clubs win trophies. And PSG will have extra motivation to win on this occasion, with a trophy on the line and the ability to strengthen their stronghold on French soccer. The club will be well-rested, healthy, and playing in front of a home crowd in Paris. I fully expect Paris Saint-Germain to show us what they look like at full-strength.

Therefore, I like PSG to win by multiple goals in this spot. They will be aggressive even later in the match, looking for insurance goals to avoid extra time. Additionally, PSG can be lethal in the counter-attack with Mbappe even if they do choose to sit back against a potentially desperate Toulouse side. Take PSG in the asian handicap market at -1.5, but play it safe. Toulouse will be rested and prepared too, and may choose to sit back all game in hopes of a 0-0, 1-0, or 1-1 outcome.

Paris Saint-Germain -1.5 vs Toulouse
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Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports and writing as a journalist. Now, he provides detailed betting analysis to help others profit off their sports knowledge too. Will spots insights casual fans may miss and delivers his guidance in a direct, no-nonsense style. In his downtime, you can find him unwinding on the couch and watching foreign film classics.