Brentford vs Liverpool Prediction: Bees Still Undervalued

Table-topping Liverpool will make the trek down to West London to face Brentford on Saturday. One of the earlier games on the slate, the Bees will look to shock late-risers with a scoreline that favors them. The Bees are coming off an impressive 2-0 win over Wolves in their last match. Read on to access an expert Brentford vs Liverpool prediction and explore stats and the latest Liverpool odds.

  • Brentford FC vs Liverpool FC, English Premier League
  • February 17, 2024
  • 7:30 AM EST
  • Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, West London, England
  • USA, Fubo, Peacock

Brentford vs Liverpool Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?

Brentford are considerable underdogs despite playing at home in West London, sporting a price tag of (+425). Liverpool will look to defend their lofty (-163) number as a road favorite with a big win. A draw will not satisfy title-chasing Liverpool, but it will satisfy those who bet on the (+352) outcome.

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Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about English Premier League betting odds.

Liverpool Team News and Recent Games

The title race is on, and we are nearing that lovely time of year when every match week seems to be of critical importance to determining which club will hoist the Premier League trophy. Manchester City is trailing the Reds by just two points, holding a game in hand and poised to capitalize on any misstep in the title race. Nevertheless, a victory would temporarily extend the Reds’ lead to five points over City, at least until the latter faces Chelsea later in the day.

Liverpool and Brentford have crossed paths 20 times in their history, dating back to 1906. Liverpool’s first clash with Brentford at the Gtech in September 2021 marked their initial meeting in any competition in 32 years and their first league encounter since 1947, following Brentford’s promotion to the top flight. The match concluded in a thrilling 3-3 draw, with Diogo Jota, Mohamed Salah, and Curtis Jones finding the net for Klopp’s side.

In the previous season, on January 2, Brentford notched their first win over Liverpool in any competition since 1938, securing a 3-1 victory in London. Their most recent meeting on November 12, 2023, at Merseyside resulted in a victory for Liverpool, with Jota and a brace from Salah securing the win. 

LiverpoolTo Defeat Brentford
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Brentford Recent Form and Transfer Rumors

Ivan Toney’s grand return to soccer after a gambling-related suspension has brought great joy to Brentford supporters. Toney has already scored 3 goals for the club in just 4 matches, catching the eye of suitors around the world. Unfortunately, his Brentford days may already be coming to an end.

According to TEAMTALK, Arsenal is among the clubs closely monitoring the situation as contract negotiations between Ivan Toney and Brentford have reached an impasse. With Toney’s current deal set to expire in just over a year, Brentford might consider a summer sale if an agreement on a contract extension is not reached.

Adding to Arsenal’s potential interest, Football Transfers reports that Brentford is actively exploring striker options in the transfer market. Of note, they are eyeing Jonathan David from Lille, suggesting a possible plan to replace Ivan Toney this summer, as David is seen as a player who could secure a starting position in most Premier League teams.

Sure enough, Brentford made a move on Wednesday to bring in attacking support. Brentford officially secured the acquisition of Igor Thiago from Club Brugge, finalizing a five-year contract for an estimated transfer fee of $38 million.

The prolific Brazilian striker, with a notable record of 16 goals in 24 Belgium Pro League matches, is set to become part of the team starting in July. Thomas Frank, the manager of Brentford, expressed enthusiasm about the new addition, stating on the club’s website, “Thiago is a highly promising striker who perfectly complements the role within our team.” It remains to be seen if this is the last of Brentford’s transfer news, but Thiago’s arrival certainly leaves many to wonder if Toney’s time in West London is nearing a close.

BrentfordTo Defeat Liverpool
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Brentford Expected Goals and Advanced Stats

Brentford have consistently underperformed their expected goals tallies. This leaves observers like ourselves to come to only one conclusion: Brentford are a strong team that have struggled in finishing. Considering the volatile nature of finishing ability, there is good reason to believe that Brentford may be discounted by the market and are better than their results have shown.

Opta Analyst, a site that compiles various advanced statistics related to the outcome of soccer matches, predicts Brentford to win at just 23%, with a draw occurring 26% of the time. However, a 23% hit rate implies a (+335) price tag, compared to the widely available (+420) number seen across the market for Brentford. Additionally, bookmakers are lining a draw at (+352), yet Opta sees this outcome happening at an implied (+285). Therefore, we can see the potential edge on this match to be closer than sportsbooks are expecting. 

Brentford vs Liverpool Prediction and Free Betting Pick

Another wrinkle in favor of Brentford backers is the return of one Ivan Toney. The outcast gambler served his 8-month suspension and is now making an immediate impact with 3 goals in 4 matches. Accurately pricing such a critical striker into a team’s win rate is very difficult considering his long absence. I still believe that bookmakers have yet to adequately account for his return, providing us with affordable prices on the Bees on a weekly basis. 

Liverpool is the best team in England now, if not in the world. Yet Brentford is simply not poor enough to justify this line. The Bees should keep this match within one goal when all is said and done, if not earning a result for their efforts. Give me Brentford +1 for a full unit. I have a hard time envisaging Brentford getting thoroughly beaten at home after a morale-boosting win on the road.

Brentford +1vs Liverpool
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Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports and writing as a journalist. Now, he provides detailed betting analysis to help others profit off their sports knowledge too. Will spots insights casual fans may miss and delivers his guidance in a direct, no-nonsense style. In his downtime, you can find him unwinding on the couch and watching foreign film classics.