Burnley vs Arsenal Prediction: Keep the Goals Coming

Burnley and Arsenal face off at Turf Moor in what is shaping up to be a lopsided Premier League clash. The title-chasing Gunners are massive favorites despite making the trek to Burnley after a 6-0 thrashing of West Ham. Will the goal-scoring festivities continue this weekend? Continue reading to access an expert Burnley vs Arsenal prediction and explore stats and the latest Arsenal odds.

  • Burnley FC vs Arsenal FC, English Premier League
  • February 17, 2024
  • 10 AM EST
  • Turf Moor, Burnley, Lancashire, England
  • USA, Peacock, Fubo

Burnley vs Arsenal Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?

Arsenal will look to make their traveling supporters proud as a (-315) favorite at Turf Moor. Meanwhile, Burnley hopes to make the most out of a tall task at home. The Clarets are tabbed at (+875) to win, for an implied probability of just 10.3%. A draw, in which the participating clubs are tied after a full 90 minutes, is lined at (+475).

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Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about English Premier League betting odds.

Burnley Team News and Recent Games

Facing the largest-ever crowd at Anfield for a Premier League match, Burnley surprisingly headed into halftime on even terms, with Dara O’Shea responding in the air to Diogo Jota’s initial goal. However, in the second half, Burnley failed to counter Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez’s headers.

Still in pursuit of their first victory in 2024, Burnley is currently in the 19th position. The Clarets only hold a goal difference advantage over bottom-placed Sheffield United, who secured an unexpected win at Luton Town last weekend. The gap to 17th-placed Hatters, who have played one game less, has widened to seven points.

Long-term absentees Nathan Redmond (hamstring) and Luca Koleosho (knee) continue to be sidelined on the Burnley byline. Lyle Foster, unexpectedly absent against Liverpool due to a chronic injury, has undergone surgery since. Jordan Beyer’s thigh injury persists, but Charlie Taylor’s shoulder issue might recover in time for Saturday’s fixture. Hannes Delcroix may continue at left-back if necessary, having recently returned from injury at Anfield.

BurnleyTo Defeat Arsenal
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Arsenal Recent Form and Injury Updates

West Ham was no match for the Gunners last weekend, as Arsenal came, saw, and conquered with 6 goals in the 90 minutes played. Arsenal showcased their prowess in set-piece situations with the victory at London Stadium. This season, they have excelled in scoring from corners, leading the Premier League with the highest number of goals from such situations (11). Notably, their last three goals were all headers from center-backs, with two from Gabriel and one from Saliba.

In addition to Arteta’s abundance of attacking talent, Arsenal’s starting lineup for Saturday’s match could receive a significant boost from the return of several key players. Gabriel Jesus, Fábio Vieira, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Emile Smith Rowe, and Oleksandr Zinchenko are all potential comeback candidates. However, Jurriën Timber and Thomas Partey are still sidelined due to injuries.

In the 2023-24 season, the Gunners have conceded a division-low 11 goals on the road. This stat indicates that they are poised to create another chapter in club history against Burnley, a team they defeated 3-1 at the Emirates in November. Moreover, Arsenal has maintained an undefeated streak in their last 10 Premier League visits to Turf Moor, although half of those matches ended in draws.

ArsenalTo Defeat Burnley
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Kylian Mbappe to Arsenal Rumors

The Kylian Mbappe circus has gained further traction this week with reports that the star French international has informed Paris Saint-Germain of his intentions to leave the club in the summer. Mbappe’s departure is expected to save the French champions around $215 million annually. 

Arsenal is reportedly in the running to secure Kylian Mbappe’s move to the Emirates Stadium, as the French forward expresses interest in relocating to north London. While Real Madrid has been considered Mbappe’s likely destination for a while, the formidable competition in the Premier League might pose a significant challenge for Los Blancos. Arsenal, having been linked with Mbappe when he departed Monaco, could potentially rekindle their interest in the World Cup winner. It is believed that Mbappe desires to join Arsenal with the aspiration of emulating the achievements of Thierry Henry, the club’s all-time leading scorer.

Burnley vs Arsenal Prediction and Free Betting Pick

Last week, I tipped West Ham and Arsenal to go over 2.5 goals at (-150). Arsenal thrashed West Ham’s back line in a 6-0 win. Arsenal’s last five matches have now gone over 2.5 goals.

Similar to last week, both teams appear to be in good shape with recently rested players and well-managed lineups, minimizing the risk of injuries. Historically, home teams with the odds stacked against them tend to engage in high-scoring matches, as the home advantage typically leads to increased goal-scoring. However, the challenge of defending against a significantly superior opponent can also lead to conceding goals, surpassing the anticipated total.

To add more fuel to the fire, Burnley have scored in their last four matches, with the last 3 going over 2.5 goals. Naturally, I think there are plenty of reasons to go back to the well, but I will stress caution. Arsenal’s defense has looked very strong, especially on the road. A shutout is not off the table. Therefore, I will recommend another half unit play on this match going over 2.5 goals at (-165).

Over 2.5Total Goals
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Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports and writing as a journalist. Now, he provides detailed betting analysis to help others profit off their sports knowledge too. Will spots insights casual fans may miss and delivers his guidance in a direct, no-nonsense style. In his downtime, you can find him unwinding on the couch and watching foreign film classics.