Champions League Final: Real Madrid vs Dortmund Betting Value on Total

The day has finally come, as Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund meet in the cherished Wembley Stadium to complete the 2023-24 Champions League season. It has been a long road for both teams, although for Dortmund it is much more unexpected that they are in the final. A win for Real would extend their record to 15 titles, and would mark their 6th continental triumph in the last 11 tries. Read on for an expert Real Madrid vs Dortmund betting prediction and explore tips and stats for Champions League odds in 2024.

  • Real Madrid CF vs Borussia Dortmund
  • Champions League Final
  • Saturday, June 1, 2024
  • 3 PM EST
  • Wembley Stadium, London, England
  • Paramount+

Champions League Odds for 2024 Final

It is Spainiards who are most likely to be rejoicing Saturday night around the world as Real Madrid is the favorite to hoist the prestigious Champions League trophy. The club is (-155) favorites, a considerably high number for a final in a neutral venue. Dortmund fans can enjoy a 4:1 payout if their team wins in 90 minutes. But if both clubs are unable to separate themselves after the allotted time, draw bettors will cash at (+320). 

Champions LeagueBetOnline ReviewBetUS ReviewBovadaXBet ReviewMyBookie Review
Real Madrid-157-155-155-160-160

Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about Champions League betting strategy.

Real Madrid Team News and Latest Results

Real Madrid is by far the most successful team to ever compete in European competition. An incredible 14 title victories precedes this final, including in 2021-2022 most recently. The organization is accustomed to being in this position, with helmsman Carlo Ancelotti now coaching his 6th-ever Champions League final. If history is any indication, Ancelotti’s side should have the edge, considering he has won 4 of his 5 final appearances. It will be a chance for a double this year as well for Real Madrid, having won La Liga this year.

Questions remain around the goalkeeping situation for Real Madrid. Legendary Belgian keeper Thibault Courtois has seen limited action as he struggles with the replications of an ACL injury, leaving Andriy Lunin to start many games for Real this season. Ancelotti has suggested he does not know who he will choose until the last minute. Lunin has been dealing with a fever but should be ready for Saturday, and Courtois came back earlier this month, recording a clean sheet in a 3-0 win for the club.

Real MadridTo Win
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Will Borussia Dortmund Win the Champions League?

With no disrespect meant to Dortmund, their appearance in the final is just short of a miracle. The club finished first in this year’s Group of Death, a stacked group with the likes of Paris Saint-Germain, AC Milan and Newcastle United. That honor gave them a matchup against the mighty Dutch side PSV Eindhoven, who they dispatched 3-1 on aggregate.

Next up was a tie with Atletico Madrid, who many picked to pull through thanks to the tactical genius of Diego Simeone and the firepower of that side, who had recently knocked Real Madrid out of the Copa del Rey. However, Dortmund defied the odds in a thrilling 4-2 win in the 2nd leg after losing the first, advancing 5-4 on aggregate. Following that, they were assigned the task of getting past PSG after just playing them in the group stage. After drawing 1-1 in that preliminary stage, Dortmund won both legs of the semifinal tie to remarkably advance 2-0. Such a result was not only unlikely but remarkable given Dortmund’s ability to hold PSG scoreless in both games. 

The most recent meeting between these two sides was back in 2017. The two faced off in the group stage of the Champions League, with Real Madrid winning on both occasions. They had also met the year prior in similar circumstances, although a pair of draws could not separate the two.

DortmundTo Win
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Champions League Odds, Real Madrid vs Dortmund Betting Prediction

Dortmund’s incredible defensive performances in the Champions League, while commendable, feel more fortuitous than earned. PSG hit the post 7 times in their tie vs the Germans, a feat very difficult to even try to achieve. They seemed to be able to get into the box and get good looks at will. It feels as if Dortmund controlling the ball for longer periods of time than expected threw many teams off, including Atletico, who were still able to score 4 times in their tie.

Real Madrid, meanwhile, have consistently been a part of highlight-reel games full of scoring. They have stepped it up in key moments and have found offensive production from many different sources. Real have scored multiple times thrice in their last 4 Champions League ties, and gave up 3 to Manchester City and 2 to Bayern Munich in two of those. Real should control possession for the majority of the game, leaving Dortmund’s chances down to counter-attacks.

This total is only justified if Dortmund continues its ridiculous defensive performances from their PSG tie. It is not like they are some stalwart domestically, giving up 43 goals, more than Stuttgart and high-flying RB Leipzig. Real Madrid should get plenty of chances to score, and if they go behind, they will be forced to push men forward. I think the over has plenty of value here, so enjoy rooting for a high-scoring final on Saturday.

Over 2.75Total Goals
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Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports and writing as a journalist. Now, he provides detailed betting analysis to help others profit off their sports knowledge too. Will spots insights casual fans may miss and delivers his guidance in a direct, no-nonsense style. In his downtime, you can find him unwinding on the couch and watching foreign film classics.