Copa del Rey Prediction: Can Mallorca Score in Final?

The Copa del Rey will commence with two unlikely finalists squaring off in Estadio La Cartuja on Saturday in Seville, Spain. Athletic Club will look to win their first Copa in more than 40 years. Real Mallorca will look to do the same in their first triumph since 2003. Continue reading to access an expert Copa del Rey prediction and explore stats and the latest Copa del Rey odds for 2024.

  • Athletic Club vs RCD Mallorca, Copa del Rey Final
  • April 6, 2024
  • 4 PM EST
  • Estadio La Cartuja, Seville, Spain
  • ESPN+

Copa del Rey Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?

The Spanish Cup is favored to return to Basque Country this year, as Athletic are favored at a line of (-145). The island side Mallorca will hope they can keep their dream alive one final time as (+425) underdogs. If extra time is necessary, draw bettors will cash out a price of (+270).

Copa del ReyBetOnline ReviewBetUS ReviewBovadaXBet ReviewMyBookie Review
Athletic Club-145-145-145-145-145

Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about La Liga betting odds.

Copa del Rey Summary and 2024 Results

Established in 1903, the competition stands as the oldest Spanish football tournament played nationally. Winning the Copa del Rey secures qualification for the UEFA Europa League in the subsequent season, as well as entry into the Spanish Supercup.

Every round consists of single-leg ties, where lower division teams host the matches, a new development. The majority of top-level clubs enter at the First Round, except for four teams participating in the Supercopa de España, who join in the Third Round, the last 32. Athletic notably has adapted well to this format, triumphing in a total of 21 single-leg ties, thereby securing a spot in the two-legged semi-finals in each of the initial five seasons under this structure. The final is played as a one-off match at a neutral location. 

Athletic Club Copa del Rey History

The Lions triumphed over Rubi, Cayon, Eibar, Alaves, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid on their journey to this season’s final. Their stellar performance in the semi-finals, where they outclassed Atletico 4-0 on aggregate, was deserving of a final position. And a 4-2 victory over Barcelona in the quarterfinals makes it hard to argue against their place in the final.

Athletic Club are the second-most frequent holders of the Copa del Rey trophy, winning the Spanish Cup 23 times in their history. However, they haven’t won it all since 1984, despite 6 trips to the finals in that span. This drought includes back-to-back runners-up finishes in 2020 and 2021. Their impressive total highlights their success in the early part of the 20th century, before clubs like Real Madrid and Barcelona began to dominate.

Athletic is concerned about Nico Williams’ fitness, as he grapples with a muscular problem. A last-minute decision is anticipated regarding the Spain international’s participation this weekend. Yeray Alvarez is also uncertain, having been replaced early in the match against Real Madrid.

In La Liga, Julen Agirrezabala ranks behind Unai Simon in the goalkeeping hierarchy. However, Agirrezabala is poised to maintain his position for the final in the Copa del Rey.

Athletic ClubTo Win
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Mallorca Season Breakdown and Copa del Rey Odds

Mallorca’s journey to the final of the Copa del Rey is of considerable historical significance, as it will be just their 4th appearance ever. The islanders will hope to repeat their 2003 performance over Recreativo de Huelva, which concluded in a 3-0 victory thanks to two strikes from Samuel Eto’o. They are priced at (+200) to hoist the trophy this year.

Mallorca is expected to field Dominik Greif, who also serves as the club’s second-choice goalkeeper, in the upcoming match. Unfortunately, Omar Mascarell will be absent due to a hamstring injury sustained against Valencia. Additionally, Martin Valjent is uncertain to play due to a thigh issue and will undergo assessment before the match. Samu Costa, Toni Lato, Dani Rodriguez, and Antonio Raillo are likely to return to the starting lineup after being on the bench in the previous match, likely in anticipation of this weekend’s showpiece event.

MallorcaTo Win
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Copa del Rey Prediction and Free Betting Pick

The last time these two clubs met, it wasn’t even close. Athletic Club dominated the scoresheets on all fronts, winning 4-0 on February 2. Mallorca mustered only 0.37 expected goals from 6 shots on the road. From an all-time head-to-head perspective, Athletic are ahead also, losing only twice in 16 total competitions.

Mallorca is expected to employ a defensive strategy in the Spanish Cup final, yet containing the likes of Inaki Williams and his teammates proves to be a formidable challenge. Meanwhile, prior to a match against Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu last time, Athletic Club shut out 4 opponents in a row, including Atletico Madrid and Barcelona. 

While initially considering a play on the under, the line has blown up too much for me to see value. A play on Athletic Club is also too wide. But an angle to back both of these sentiments remains in the team total market. I think another clean sheet for Athletic in a slow, grinding affair is more likely than not, giving us some value on the (-105) line. I’ll take that for a half unit.

Under 0.5 GoalsMallorca
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Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports and writing as a journalist. Now, he provides detailed betting analysis to help others profit off their sports knowledge too. Will spots insights casual fans may miss and delivers his guidance in a direct, no-nonsense style. In his downtime, you can find him unwinding on the couch and watching foreign film classics.