French Side are Live Underdogs in Milan vs Rennes

Milan hosts Rennes in the first leg of the Round of 16 in Europa league competition. The Italians will look to gain a lead on aggregate on home turf before they must return the favor in France. Rennes have been on an incredible run of form, winning their last 8 matches across all competitions. Continue reading to access an expert Milan vs Rennes prediction and explore stats and the latest Europa League odds.

  • AC Milan vs Stade Rennais FC, UEFA Europa League Round of 16, Leg 1 of 2
  • February 15, 2024
  • 3 PM EST
  • San Siro, Milan, Italy
  • Paramount+

Milan vs Rennes Betting Odds

Milan are slight odds-on favorites to win in 90 minutes, with a line of (-145) available courtesy of XBet and MyBookie. The visitors will be considerable underdogs to pull off a victory, as Rennes are currently priced as low as (+413). A potential draw, which would favor Rennes as they return home for the second leg, is pegged at (+300).

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AC Milan Team News and Recent Games

Milan and Rennes are set to face each other in a competitive fixture for the first time. Milan has a strong track record against France, having advanced in four out of their last five knockout ties against French opponents in major European competitions. Their latest victory came in the quarter-final stage of the 2005/06 UEFA Champions League, where Milan eliminated Lyon.

In the 2023/24 UEFA Champions League group stage, Milan (5 goals) registered the second-lowest goal tally, with only PC Salzburg (4) scoring fewer. Surprisingly, despite having the fourth-highest number of shots among all teams (95), the Rossoneri underperformed their expected-goals tally by the largest margin (-4.9) compared to any other team in the group stage.

Milan faced ongoing defensive challenges on Sunday when captain Davide Calabria had to be substituted in the first half of the victory against Napoli due to an adductor problem. As a result, Calabria is expected to be sidelined for a certain period.

The defensive concerns persist with Pierre Kalulu and Fikayo Tomori remaining unavailable. However, there is a positive note as Malick Thiaw, recovering from a two-month hamstring injury, is now back in contention. Meanwhile, winger Samu Chukwueze has been released from Nigeria duty.

MilanTo Defeat Rennes
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Rennes Recent Form and Injury Updates

Rennes is gearing up for their fifth encounter with an Italian opponent in the UEFA Europa League. Their previous experiences include two group-stage clashes with Udinese during the 2011/12 season (resulting in one draw and one loss) and a face-off with Lazio in the 2019/20 campaign (culminating in one win and one draw). In their most recent match, Rennes secured a 2-0 victory at home against Lazio.

Having secured victories against Panathinaikos on MD3 and Maccabi Haifa on MD5 during the 2023/24 UEFA Europa League group stage, Rennes is on the verge of achieving a remarkable milestone. If they win their next away match, it will mark the first time in the club’s history that they have won three consecutive away games in major European competition.

In other interesting news, AC Milan striker Olivier Giroud shared insight into his connection between Rennes. The French club expressed interest in signing the Frenchman in the past, but a Giroud return to Ligue 1 never materialized. Olivier Giroud and Rennes owner Francois Pinault were once good friends and neighbors for a period of time living in London.

Olivier Giroud has played a pivotal role in nine UEFA Europa League knockout-stage matches, contributing to a total of 11 goals (7 goals and 4 assists). At the age of 37 years and 138 days, the Frenchman has the potential to become the fourth-oldest player to score in the knockout stages of the competition, following Jorge Molina (38y 323d), Walter Samuel (37y 332d), and Miroslav Klose (37y 261d).

RennesTo Defeat Milan
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AC Milan vs Rennes Prediction and Free Betting Pick

Rennes has found the back of the net in all but one of their last 16 Europa League matches, showcasing a consistent scoring record. Additionally, their impressive performance on the road is evident with eight wins in 12 European away games.

Rennes have also been on a tear in French competition, winning their last 8 matches. I believe Rennes are being overlooked against a popular Italian team on the road and have the potential to not only keep this game close, but to win outright.

On the other side of things, Rennes have scored multiple goals in 6 of their last 7 matches, for a total of 19 during that span. Milan have scored 20 goals in their last 8 Serie A matches. Bettors may be wary of backing an over in a European competition involving Milan, who struggled mightily on the offensive end in the Champions League group stage. Yet their shot production and expected goals tally indicated a terrible streak of luck for the Rossoneri in finishing. 

Milan’s defensive concerns due to injury further add reason to expect more goals in this match. Therefore, I am advocating for two bets in this match. Rennes +0.75 (+100) and over 2.5 Total Goals (-118), each for a half unit. I think both have value and there is still the potential to “middle” or cash both.

Rennes +0.75vs Milan
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Over 2.5Total Goals
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Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports and writing as a journalist. Now, he provides detailed betting analysis to help others profit off their sports knowledge too. Will spots insights casual fans may miss and delivers his guidance in a direct, no-nonsense style. In his downtime, you can find him unwinding on the couch and watching foreign film classics.