Granada vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Atleti Are Safe Bet

Granada will hope to improve one of their worst home records in La Liga when they invite Atletico Madrid to their grounds on Monday. The weekday primetime matchup pits a relegation candidate against a squad with European aspirations. Can Atleti strike through on the road and earn a critical 3 points? Read on to access an expert Granada vs Atletico Madrid prediction and explore stats and the latest Atletico Madrid odds. 

  • Granada CF vs Club Atlético de Madrid, La Liga
  • January 22, 2024
  • 3 PM EST
  • Estadio Los Cármenes, Granada, Spain
  • ESPN+, ESPN Deportes

Granada vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?

Atletico Madrid are odds-on favorites to win in Granada, with an almost unanimous price of (-140) across the internet’s best sportsbooks. The Nazaries will look to reverse their role as underdog by the time the final whistle blows, as the club is currently sitting at a line of (+395) to win. A draw is priced around 3:1 or (+300), an implied probability of 25%.

LaLigaBetOnline ReviewBetUS ReviewBovadaXBet ReviewMyBookie Review
Atletico Madrid-138-140-140-140-140

Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about La Liga betting odds.

Granada Season Breakdown

There is no way around it: Granada is one of the worst teams in the top-flight of Spanish football. Their measly 11 points only better newly-promoted Almeria, and they have failed to win more than once in 18 matches across all competitions. In fact, their sole victory was one over fellow relegation candidate Cadiz, aided by a sending-off of a Cadiz player early in the second half. The victory was only their 2nd all year, with both coming at home.

Granada’s home performance in La Liga this season has been subpar, largely due to a defense that struggles to prevent goals. In eight home matches at Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes, they have conceded thirteen goals, placing them among the teams with the poorest defensive records in the division.

Under Robert Moreno’s management, Granada has managed only one clean sheet in these eight matches. Despite defensive challenges, their offensive prowess is evident, with Granada scoring in seven out of those eight outings.

GranadaTo Defeat Atletico Madrid
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Atletico Madrid Season Statistics and Recent H2H

Antoine Griezmann and Rodrigo Riquelme secured a 4-2 derby triumph for Atletico Madrid in extra time. The result secured a spot in the Copa del Rey quarterfinals on Thursday. This victory, orchestrated by Diego Simeone’s side, came a week after the intense clash between the two rivals.

Real Madrid emerged victorious with a 5-3 win in the Spanish Super Cup semifinals held in Saudi Arabia. The rematch at a lively Metropolitano stadium unfolded as a spirited contest, ultimately decided by two extra-time goals, this time favoring Atleti.

Diego Simeone’s team is currently on the brink of elimination from the LaLiga title race. A heartbreaking 4-3 defeat to Girona has dealt a blow to their aspirations, with Girona now level with Real at the top of the table. The loss has dropped Atleti to a tie for 4th place, yet they remain strong contenders for a future European appearance.

Atletico Madrid’s defensive struggles continue, as they have gone six games without a clean sheet and conceded 20 goals in just 17 matches. This defensive performance marks the worst record for goals conceded per match among the top six teams. 

It is unexpected for a Diego Simeone-managed side to be porous at the back. However, the team compensates with a strong offensive display, having already scored 14 goals on the road, with only Real Madrid boasting a more potent attack. Perhaps these results are simply signs of growing pains as part of what appears to be a new strategy for Simeone. His squad has been much more aggressive as of late, sending numbers on the counter-attack heavily and looking to play it over the top often.

Granada vs Atletico Madrid Prediction and Free Betting Pick

Atletico Madrid remains a longshot candidate to win it all this season, currently sitting 5th in the table. On the flip side, Granada is a candidate to be sent down to the second division with only 11 points in 20 games so far. Atleti defeated Real Madrid in extra time on Thursday in an exhilarating, yet somewhat bewildering affair. The club will have to turn their heads around quickly and focus on their Southern foes Granada on just 4 days’ prep.

Granada is liable to concede in this match after their defensive woes, and their home record is far from enviable. Atletico will hope to build on their offensive firepower showcased in Saudi Arabia against Real Madrid and in their Copa del Rey classic. Admittedly, their La Liga performance has stagnated. But a heartbreaking loss to top-ranked Girona on the road and #3 Athletic Club is nothing to hang one’s head on.

In conclusion, this isn’t the ideal spot coming off such short rest. Typically, I’d lean towards the home side with the rest advantage. But I think you can trust in Atleti to get it done against a Granada side that just can’t buy a win. (-138) is a discount when looking deeper into the recent form of both clubs. Take Atletico Madrid to win with confidence.

Atletico MadridTo Defeat Granada
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Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports and writing as a journalist. Now, he provides detailed betting analysis to help others profit off their sports knowledge too. Will spots insights casual fans may miss and delivers his guidance in a direct, no-nonsense style. In his downtime, you can find him unwinding on the couch and watching foreign film classics.