Newcastle vs Manchester City Prediction: Magpies Down But Not Out

Newcastle will look to snap their poor run of form against one of the league’s best in Manchester City. January 13 at St. James’ Park will play the setting of this Premier League edition of a fixture that most recently resulted in City being dumped out of the League Cup. Newcastle topped Manchester City 1-0 back on September 27. Read on to access an expert Newcastle vs Manchester City prediction and explore the latest Manchester City odds.

  • Newcastle United FC vs Manchester City FC, Premier League (England)
  • January 13, 2024
  • 12:30 PM EST
  • St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, England
  • Universo

Newcastle vs Manchester City Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?

Newcastle are big underdogs at (+450) despite their prowess at home and their recent success against Manchester City. This may underscore the binary directions each club is going in as Newcastle struggles with injuries. A draw pays out at (+348), good for an implied probability of 22.3%. Manchester City will head up north as (-170) favorites, in the midst of their typically strong second-half season form. 

Premier LeagueBetOnline ReviewBetUS ReviewBovada
Manchester City-175-177-180

To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our soccer betting tips and learn about English Premier League betting odds.

Newcastle Falling Apart, but Reinforcements to Come

Newcastle successfully navigated the potential stumbling block of a Tyne-Wear Derby defeat in the FA Cup last weekend, but their upcoming challenge against Manchester City at St James’ Park looms much larger.

In their recent Premier League fixture at Anfield, Newcastle endured a record 7.27 expected goals against them. With five defeats in their last six top-flight matches, securing a positive result against the formidable Manchester City would be nothing short of a surprising feat.

Despite progressing in the FA Cup, Eddie Howe’s team had been struggling before their triumph at the Stadium of Light. Their form was dismal, marked by six defeats in their last nine matches, leading to exits from the Champions League and Carabao Cup, and currently placing them ninth in the Premier League table. The stretch has brought questions regarding his current ability to lead the club, but with such a massive injury list to grapple with, a longer leash should be extended.

Joelinton, Jacob Murphy, Sandro Tonali, Harvey Barnes, Joe Willock, Callum Wilson, and Nick Pope are all unavailable. A limited number of changes is anticipated after their recent victory against Sunderland.

NewcastleTo Defeat Manchester City
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Manchester City Injury Report

Despite currently trailing the table leaders by five points, the reigning Premier League champions have typically demonstrated a tendency to elevate their performance in the latter part of the season. Heading into the north-east with a commendable run, they have secured seven wins and a draw in their last eight matches.

In the recent FA Cup fixture, Pep Guardiola’s team, as expected, convincingly defeated Championship relegation candidate Huddersfield. However, one of the standout moments was the return of Kevin De Bruyne, who made a comeback from a prolonged period on the sidelines. Additionally, Jeremy Doku’s recovery from injury added to the team’s joy. Erling Haaland is still a question mark to play this weekend, but Manchester City are left in capable hands with the return of the beloved de Bruyne and Doku. 

The 4th round draw of the FA Cup took place this week, and Manchester City drew an unenviable tie in Tottenham. Having to face not only a fellow Premier League team, but a title contender, is not the most ideal situation for the Cityzens. However, key members of the outfit do not seem too concerned about the draw, according to recent reports. In fairness, Tottenham has been on quite the skid in recent months, falling far from their incredible start to the season.

In other roster news, John Stone is still injured. Bernardo Silva, however, is expected to recover from a recent illness and be available for Saturday’s game.

Manchester CityTo Defeat Newcastle
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Newcastle vs Manchester City Prediction and Free Betting Pick

Betting on Newcastle in this run of form is a scary proposition. They have looked like a shell of their former dominant selves, and Eddie Howe may be on the chopping block for it. However, there comes a time during any poor stretch when there is value to “buy low” on a club. And I think this is that time.

Newcastle is playing at home yet are massive underdogs. But this is no normal home advantage: this is St. James’ Park, up in the cold tundra of Tyne where few opponents return home victorious. And while Manchester City may very well do so, I can’t help but believe they will have considerable trouble doing so. 

In the asian handicap market, we can buy a goal on Newcastle at close to an even number. So in the event Newcastle loses by just one goal, our bet will be refunded. But if the Magpies can earn a point at home with a rest advantage and key players returning, we will cash. I think that is worth taking, but it’s important to stress staying conservative with such an “ugly” bet.

Newcastle +1vs Manchester City
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Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports and writing as a journalist. Now, he provides detailed betting analysis to help others profit off their sports knowledge too. Will spots insights casual fans may miss and delivers his guidance in a direct, no-nonsense style. In his downtime, you can find him unwinding on the couch and watching foreign film classics.