Porto vs Arsenal Prediction: Dragons No Match for Gunners

Porto faces off against red-hot Arsenal in the first leg of their Round of 16 tie in the Champions League. The Portuguese side are dealing with significant injuries on their backline. Thus, they will need all the luck they can get if they are to slow down Arsenal, who have scored 11 in their last two games. Continue reading to access an expert Porto vs Arsenal prediction and explore stats and the latest Arsenal odds in 2024.

  • FC Porto vs Arsenal FC, Champions League Round of 16, Leg 1 of 2
  • February 21, 2024
  • 3 PM EST
  • Estadio do Dragao, Porto, Portugal
  • ViX, Paramount+

Porto vs Arsenal Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?

Porto are rather large underdogs in this opening clash with the North London club, despite their home status. The Dragons are priced at (+456) to enter Emirates Stadium with a goal advantage. Arsenal, on the other hand, are tagged at (-145) to continue their winning streak. This number is good for an implied winning probability of 59.2%.A draw pays out at (+285), currently available at Bovada.

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Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about Champions League betting strategy.

Porto Team News and Recent Games

Porto stands as the sole Portuguese team remaining in Europe’s premier competition, securing a spot in the elimination rounds for the sixth time in the last seven seasons. 

With their 12-point accumulation in the group stage, the Primeira Liga giants have an opportunity to rectify past shortcomings in the Champions League. Since the 1993-94 tournament, they have been unable to advance beyond the last eight. 

In seven out of Porto’s last eight Champions League knockout ties against English opponents, the Portuguese team have been sent home packing. Now two decades later, Conceicao’s squad welcomes Arsenal with a strong record, boasting a 10-game unbeaten streak across all tournaments at the Estadio do Dragao. Their recent 2-0 victory against Estrela Amadora in the Primeira Liga marked their fifth consecutive clean sheet on home turf.

Porto’s recent victory against Estrela over the weekend was marred by an unfortunate incident for Conceicao. The left-back, Zaidu Sanusi, had to be stretchered off in the 32nd minute due to a complete anterior cruciate ligament rupture, sidelining the Nigerian for the rest of the season.

Adding to Conceicao’s defensive challenges, Ivan Marcano, another Dragons defender, is also grappling with an ACL injury, with only a slim chance of returning before the campaign concludes. Furthermore, the status of midfield linchpin Stephen Eustaquio remains uncertain after the Canadian missed the recent triumph over Estrela. 

PortoTo Defeat Arsenal
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Arsenal Recent Form and Injury Updates

In the 2023-24 season, the Gunners have conceded a division-low 11 goals on the road. They have also struck 21 times in the last five games and 11 in the last two alone. A rain-soaked pitch didn’t even stop them from putting 5 past Burnley’s last line of defense over the weekend. 

Emile Smith Rowe returned in time from an ankle concern to be included on the bench against Burnley. However, Gabriel Jesus, Oleksandr Zinchenko, and Takehiro Tomiyasu did not receive clearance to play and remain uncertain for upcoming matches.

Jurrien Timber is recovering from an ACL injury and has been included in the Gunners’ squad for the knockout rounds. Meanwhile, Thomas Partey and Fabio Vieira are making progress in their comebacks from operations.

Although Vieira has a chance of featuring against his former club, any participation by the Portuguese player is likely to be from the bench. Manager Arteta, satisfied with his in-form starting XI, will more than likely see no need for alterations at this point.

Kylian Mbappe to Arsenal Rumors

The ongoing Kylian Mbappe saga has taken a new turn this week, as reports suggest that the prominent French international has communicated his desire to leave Paris Saint-Germain in the upcoming summer. This anticipated departure is anticipated to result in an annual saving of approximately $215 million for the French champions. Arsenal has emerged as a contender in the race to secure Kylian Mbappe’s transfer to the Emirates Stadium, with the French forward indicating interest in a move to north London. 

Although Real Madrid has long been considered as Mbappe’s probable destination, the intense competition within the Premier League poses a formidable challenge for Los Blancos. Arsenal, previously linked with Mbappe during his departure from Monaco, may rekindle their interest in the World Cup winner. It is rumored that Mbappe harbors a desire to join Arsenal with the aim of replicating the accomplishments of Thierry Henry, the club’s all-time leading scorer.

Porto vs Arsenal Prediction and Free Betting Pick

In Arsenal’s last two games, I tipped the match to go over 2.5 goals. Arsenal thrashed West Ham’s back line in a 6-0 win, and followed up with an equally 5-0 performance over Burnley. Arsenal’s last six matches have now gone over 2.5 goals.

However, considering the circumstances of this European affair, I am more inclined to back them outright rather than in the total market. Arsenal is on a purple patch, winning 5 in a row since their disappointing loss to Liverpool in the FA Cup. They avenged their loss in a 3-1 win at home, and have looked like one of the world’s best clubs since. 

I think Arsenal are packing more than enough firepower to earn the nod over Porto. This hunch is backed by Porto’s recent injury woes on the defensive end. That being said, the home domination of the Dragons concerns me. I am willing to reduce my unit size in half to account for a potential continuation of such success. Bet Arsenal to win on the road against Porto at a half unit play.

ArsenalTo Defeat Porto
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Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports and writing as a journalist. Now, he provides detailed betting analysis to help others profit off their sports knowledge too. Will spots insights casual fans may miss and delivers his guidance in a direct, no-nonsense style. In his downtime, you can find him unwinding on the couch and watching foreign film classics.