Luis Enrique’s high-flying Paris Saint-Germain look to continue their run of good form vs Montpellier on Friday. The Parisians have won their last four matches in all competitions after an uncharacteristic 4-1 loss to Newcastle in the Champions League. Meanwhile, Montpellier have only lost one of their last five games. Continue reading to access MyTopSportsbooks’s PSG vs Montpellier prediction and explore PSG betting odds and stats.
- Paris Saint-Germain Football Club vs Montpellier Hérault Sport Club, Ligue 1
- November 3, 2023
- 4 PM EST
- Parc des Princes, Paris, France
- FuboTV, beIN Sports
PSG vs Montpellier: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?
Paris Saint-Germain are unsurprisingly expected to win this primetime match on Friday. The home club is favored to win at a price of (-335) according to highly-rated online sportsbook Bovada. The visiting Montpellier faces an uphill battle at gaining 3 points, with a large moneyline price of (+825). If both teams remain level after the full time allotted, a draw would pay out at (+535).
Ligue 1: France (and Monaco)’s Top Flight
Ligue 1 stands as France’s premier soccer league, representing the pinnacle of the country’s football hierarchy. Traditionally comprising 20 teams, the league will witness 4 teams facing relegation and only 2 being promoted at the end of the 2023-24 season, reducing the total to 18 teams. Regarded as the fifth-best league in Europe, Ligue 1 is largely dominated by the globally acclaimed Paris Saint-Germain.
What adds an intriguing twist is the presence of AS Monaco in Ligue 1, making it technically a cross-border competition. Monaco maintains its status as an independent city-state and microstate on the French Riviera. Renowned for its gambling establishments like the Monte Carlo Casino, the city-state has been a popular destination for leisure and gambling enthusiasts, attracting visitors since the 19th century, facilitated by a direct railway connection from Paris.
Why are PSG Betting Odds So High?
PSG finds itself 2nd on the table in Ligue 1 after a 6-win start through their first 10 matches, including the last 4 straight. In their last outing, the club was able to sneak by sixth-placed Brest thanks to a late strike from superstar Kylian Mbappe. PSG were awarded a penalty after Randal Kolo Muani was fouled in the box, giving Mbappe a chance to end it with a spot-kick just one minute before stoppage time. The goalkeeper made a strong save, but it was to no avail as Mbappe hammered the rebound into the net.
Paris Saint-Germain have gained an expected goals vs actual of (0.5) in Ligue 1 so far. This indicates that on average, PSG have enjoyed an extra 0.5 goals per game compared to what advanced statistics believed they should have earned. Montpellier have gained a similar number at (0.45) expected goals vs actual. We can conclude that these teams have been fortunate to achieve their results based on their expected performances.
Nevertheless, it’s crucial to recognize that the season is still in its early stages with only ten games played. Expected goals statistics can be deceptive in such small sample sizes, especially considering PSG’s tendency to take early leads in their matches. When opponents are trailing, there tend to be more chances to rack up expected goals at an unusually high pace, deviating from the usual rhythm of the game. Therefore, this buildup of expected goals might not truly reflect the genuine performance of both teams.
Montpellier Performing as Expected This Season
Montpellier HSC has consistently been a mid-table club in France for many years now, and it appears this season is no exception. The club sits right in the middle at 11th, but do have an impressive goals differential of +4. The club is tied for fourth in the league in this metric, thanks to a number of impressive results.
One of those impressive results occurred last week when Montpellier took care of Toulouse at home, 3-0. The shutout was the club’s third in the last four games. Offensive output was powered by a brace from the Nigerian forward Akor Adams. Now, Montpellier faces a gauntlet of a 4-game schedule, including the current top-3 Ligue 1 clubs in PSG, Nice, and Monaco.
PSG vs Montpellier Prediction and Free Betting Pick
With all due respect to Montpellier and their recent run of results, PSG should have no expectation but to dominate this match. An always raucous Parcs des Princes crowd will be on hand, and they will be disappointed by anything less than a multi-goal win. Luis Enrique’s club needs to keep producing solid results. They cannot afford to lose focus in a winnable home match here if they hope to catch up with Nice at the top of the table.
However, betting on an asian handicap with a large favorite is a popular play, one sportsbooks will be wise to lay extra juice on. Bovada’s line of -1.5 (-125) for PSG is not particularly generous, so I will play this game more conservatively at a smaller stake. Take PSG and the goals, but keep it safe. All PSG really wants is the 3 points.
Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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