- S.L. Benfica vs Real Sociedad, UEFA Champions League
- October 24, 2023
- 3 PM EST
- Estádio da Luz, Lisbon, Portugal
Real Sociedad visits Benfica in Lisbon for the first match in their Champions League double. The Basques will put their unbeaten record in the UCL this season on the line vs Benfica, who have yet to accrue any points so far. Benfica will be desperate to earn a result at home and stay within reach of advancing out of their group. Continue reading to access betting odds, stats and expert insights on why this Real Sociedad Champions League squad is no fluke.
Benfica vs Real Sociedad Champions League: Betting Odds
Despite recent struggles, bookmakers like their chances of earning a win in Lisbon considerably. The Eagles are priced to win at (+106) odds according to highly-rated online sportsbook MyBookie. For the visitors, backers can earn up to (+250) in the event they continue their winning ways in this illustrious European competition. This implies that the probability Real Sociedad wins is 28.6%. A stalemate would cash at a current line of (+260).
To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our tips for how to bet on soccer in 2023.
Real Sociedad and Benfica Champions League Group: Inter Milan Frontrunners
In the last Champions League matchday, a pair of Real Sociedad first-half goals were all that was necessary to put away RB Salzburg. Meanwhile, S.L. Benfica journeyed to San Siro but failed to put one up on the scoreboard. The Portuguese lost the match 1-0 after a fantastic score by Marcus Thuram, leaving them still with no points in this Champions League group stage.
With Salzburg’s win over Benfica in Lisbon in the first matchday, Benfica now find themselves at the bottom of the group with 4 games remaining. Thankfully, their domestic results have looked promising. The players will enjoy an international break for two weeks prior to their clash with their Iberian foes, giving them plenty of time to rest and strategize for a critical match in their Champions League run.
Real Sociedad will host a La Liga match vs bottom-feeder Mallorca just a few days prior to the Benfica fixture. The domestic game may result in a weary, exhausted squad unfit to perform well in Europe. But it may also be the perfect tune-up after such a long international break. It remains to be seen which club will benefit from the scheduling of this inaugural European affair, but if either team fails to separate themselves, punters can enjoy a juicy moneyline price at Bovada.
Meet Real Sociedad’s Budding Star Takefusa Kubo
Real Sociedad seemed to have struck gold in Japanese youngling Takefusa Kubo. The 22-year old viewed his arrival to San Sebastian as a last chance to make it big in Europe. La Real represents the 8th club of his professional career, including stints at Barcelona and Villareal. Kubo now has eclipsed all expectations, becoming one of the lead scorers in La Liga and earning plenty of Man of the Match awards along the way.
Kubo’s playstyle meshes perfectly with Real Sociedad’s tactics. The white-and-blue-striped outfit loves to press high and attack whenever possible, which is music to the ears of Kubo and his finishing partiality. Similarly, his success has been watched passionately by the proud eyes of the Japanese fanbase, a country who loves football but has few international stars to speak of. Perhaps his scoring will be the difference maker for Real Sociedad in a thrilling Champions League battle.
Benfica vs Real Sociedad Champions League: First-ever Matchup
Despite over 213 combined years of soccer history, Benfica and Real Sociedad have never faced off against each other. October 24th will mark the first-ever meeting between these two clubs. So how can we compare the two sides?
Traditionally, La Liga has been the superior domestic flight compared to the Portuguese Primeira Liga. La Liga teams have enjoyed greater success on the European stage than Primeira Liga members, who have only won 4 Champions League titles compared to La Liga’s 19.
Expected goals is a useful metric in soccer to determine, based on the quantity and quality of scoring opportunities, which team performed better in a given match. Benfica has an xGD to actual of +0.36 in the Primeira Liga. This indicates that luck has profited the Portuguese with a 0.36 goal difference over their opponents, both offensively and defensively.
Similarly, Real Sociedad have enjoyed an expected goals differential to actual of +0.78, making them more than twice as fortunate as Benfica. However, one should keep in mind that we are working with a small sample size so far this year, and these clubs play in different leagues with different playstyles. It is possible that these metrics do not reflect their true performance, and should merely be used as one of many factors to consider when betting.
Benfica vs Real Sociedad Champions League Prediction and Free Betting Pick
While Benfica are enjoying greater domestic success and are the better club on paper, Real Sociedad cannot be easily written off. They have performed well under the bright lights of the UEFA Champions League so far, and a trip to Lisbon is not a long journey.
I believe Benfica is fielding a poorer lineup than many have yet to believe, and we are getting a discount on the club from the more superior La Liga. La Real have already seen some of the best opposition in their group and have met them head-on with great success. I do not see why Benfica should be favored at such odds, especially considering their lack of scoring in recent games.
I think the best play is a win or draw bet on Real Sociedad. Benfica will be dying for any points they can get, and if put in such a situation, I could see Benfica holding out late and securing a point at home without taking risks in the counterattack. Give me La Real and the draw for a double chance currently sitting at (-120) on BetUS.
Odds are accurate at the time of writing, but subject to change.
Top Sportsbooks to Bet on Real Sociedad and Benfica Champions League Group
Explore some of the best sportsbooks for online betting below. Each website is reviewed by MyTopSportsbooks for user experience, customer service and member promos. See our Champions League betting tips and odds page to learn more about how to bet on soccer with these sportsbooks.