Contentious Battle Expected in Turin Derby

  • Juventus FC vs Torino FC, Serie A
  • Saturday, October 7, 2023
  • 12 PM EST
  • Allianz Stadium, Turin, Italy
  • Paramount+

The Turin Derby takes place this Saturday as Juventus and Torino meet up in Allianz Stadium. Juve has not looked like their usual dominant selves this season and have only scored once in the past two games. Torino is in the midst of a horrific streak vs the Old Lady, as they have not won in the last 16 Serie A matches. Continue reading to find out if they have hope to break the curse and learn more about the past Juventus vs Torino results.

Turin Derby Betting Odds: Who is Expected to Win?

Juventus is pegged to claim victory on Saturday in Turin according to bookmakers. Juve is lined at (-118) to take home all 3 points. Well-reviewed online sportsbook BetOnline is the most generous to prospective Torino bettors, offering a juicy (+415) price to win the match. If teams cannot break a deadlock, “draw” ticket-holders will cash out at a line of (+255).

Serie ABetOnline ReviewBetUS ReviewBovadaMyBookie ReviewXBet Review

To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our tips for soccer betting.

Serie A and the Seven Sisters of Italian Soccer

Serie A stands as one of the most prestigious and enduring soccer leagues in the world. Renowned clubs such as Juventus, AC Milan, and Inter Milan are global giants, capturing the imagination of fans worldwide. Together with Lazio, Fiorentina, Roma, and Napoli, these teams form the illustrious “Seven Sisters” of Italian soccer.

Despite the occasional triumphs of smaller teams, the Seven Sisters typically dominate Serie A. Their unmatched popularity, substantial financial support, historical significance, and player allure place them in an advantageous position against their competitors. Notably, Juventus, AC Milan, and Inter Milan have clinched an impressive 59% of all Serie A titles. Remarkably, until Napoli’s recent victory, one among these three had claimed every league title since 2002.

Why Has Juventus Been So Inconsistent?

Outside of the Turin Derby, Juventus have been wildly inconsistent this season. A 4-2 loss to Sassuolo, marred by own goals on each side, is a clear red flag. Moreover, Juve was held scoreless twice against Atalanta. 

But there have been bright spots for the Old Lady. The club firmly defeated Lazio 3-1 and looked impressive in a club friendly vs Real Madrid. So what has been the issue with Juventus? Perhaps it has been a series of controversial events off the pitch.

Star Paul Pogba tested positive for testosterone and faces a 4-year ban for doping. The club also acted in financial rules breaches. Punishments included a docking of 10 points in Serie A and expulsion from the Europa Conference League. To make matters worse, ex-captain Leonardo Bonucci announced he plans to sue Juve manager Massimiliano Allegri after being left off the squad in late August.

These distractions are not doing Juventus any favors, but they are still expected to win in the Turin Derby at an implied probability of 54.1%. If you think those odds are too low, you can take them to defeat Torino at BetUS using the link below.

JuventusTo Beat Torino
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Past Juventus vs Torino Results: Can We Still Call it a Rivalry?

The Turin Derby has been a one-sided affair to say the least. Torino has won only one game vs Juventus since 1995. Keep in mind this fixture is played twice a year in Italy’s top flight, let alone any cup ties or European tournaments. While Juve are clearly the better team historically compared to Toro, a streak of such dominance is near-unexplainable.

Torino, as well as its traveling supporters, will be aware of their struggles against their fellow Turin citizens. From a betting perspective, a consistent trend like this one should be factored into a wagering decision. Despite changes in managers, front office, and players, it feels Torino is cursed in the Derby. This perception could negatively affect the club psychologically and having to make the short trip to Allianz Stadium won’t make things any better.

Is it possible Torino turn things around in the Turin Derby and finally beat Juve for the first time since 2015? Absolutely, but the odds are not in their favor. If you like their chances, you can take Torino to win using the link below.

TorinoTo Beat Juventus
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Juventus Expected Goals Statistics Worth Noting

Juventus have accumulated 1.39 expected goals per game in this 2023-24 campaign. But in reality, they have scored 1.71 goals per game. Additionally, their expected goals allowed add up to 1.24 goals per game, but they have been fortunate enough to only give up 0.86.

These discrepancies in expected goals to actual goals would lead soccer pundits to hypothesize that the Old Lady have been getting lucky this season. It is quite possible that Juve are not actually as good as they seem, and their inconsistencies on the pitch may reflect that.

Nevertheless, it’s crucial to recognize that we’re only seven games into the season. Expected goals statistics can be deceptive in limited sample sizes, especially considering that Juventus has often taken the lead early in their matches. When teams are trailing, there are more chances to accumulate expected goals at an unusually high rate, deviating from the usual flow of the game. This can lead to expected goals accumulation that is not reflective of both teams’ actual performances.

Turin Derby Prediction, Free Pick and How to Bet Match

It is usually beneficial to be contrarian when betting on soccer. The sport attracts many casual fans, who take one look and trust their hard-earned money on whatever team should be better on paper. 

But betting on Torino in the Turin Derby is a tricky proposition. Getting in front of such a poor streak is not something I advocate doing. While I would be tempted to take the draw in this Turin Derby, I still can’t get myself to the window. The betting odds simply aren’t good enough to risk a wager at (+250).

However, what I can put my faith on is for this match to be low scoring. Juve have only put one shot in the back of the net in their last three hours of playing time. A sputtering offense, combined with a Torino side coming into the Derby with low confidence, is a recipe for a grinding affair. I will be laying the juice and taking this edition of the Turin-based fixture to end under 2.5 goals at (-150) on Bovada.

Under 2.5 GoalsJuventus vs Torino
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Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports and writing as a journalist. Now, he provides detailed betting analysis to help others profit off their sports knowledge too. Will spots insights casual fans may miss and delivers his guidance in a direct, no-nonsense style. In his downtime, you can find him unwinding on the couch and watching foreign film classics.