UFC Betting News and Analysis This Month | UFC 331 Futures, Trends & Market Movement | September 2026

by Trent Reinsmith

Updated: September 2, 2026

In major UFC betting news, Islam Makhachev defeated Ian Machado Garry by unanimous decision in the UFC 330 main event, successfully defending the UFC welterweight title. In the co-main event, UFC strawweight champion Mackenzie Dern retained her title with a unanimous-decision win over Gillian Robertson.

Attention now shifts to UFC 331, where UFC flyweight champion Joshua Van will defend his title in a rematch against former champion Alexandre Pantoja. UFC 331 takes place on September 19 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.

With the August UFC schedule now complete, betting attention turns to September and the buildup to UFC 331.

Below, we break down the best betting angles, storylines and odds movement surrounding UFC 331, along with the latest results and market trends.

🚨 BREAKING: The UFC just announced the main card for UFC 331 on September 19 👀

Main Event – Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja

Co-main Event – Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy pic.twitter.com/Wgws22FV2p

— Championship Rounds (@ChampRDS) August 5, 2026

The biggest UFC betting storylines for UFC 331

• The UFC has officially booked flyweight champion Joshua Van to defend his title against former champion Alexandre Pantoja in the main event of UFC 331 on September 19 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
• Van won the title when Pantoja suffered an arm injury 26 seconds into their first meeting at UFC 323. Van has since successfully defended the belt against Tatsuro Taira, while Pantoja will return looking to reclaim the championship he lost through injury.
• In the five-round lightweight co-main event, Arman Tsarukyan faces Mauricio Ruffy. Tsarukyan is currently a significant favorite at approximately -380, with Ruffy available around +300.
• Tsarukyan is looking to strengthen his case for a lightweight title shot, but Ruffy enters the matchup on a three-fight winning streak. The underdog’s knockout power makes the method-of-victory market another one to monitor.
• Other UFC 331 matchups include Renato Moicano vs. Brian Ortega, Patricio Pitbull vs. Doo Ho Choi, Tai Tuivasa vs. Robelis Despaigne and Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf.

The biggest UFC betting storylines for UFC Belgrade

• UFC Belgrade took place on August 1 at Belgrade Arena in Serbia. In the main event, Uros Medic defeated Daniel Rodriguez by TKO just 30 seconds into the first round.
• Medic extended his winning streak to four fights and recorded another knockout victory, supporting the pre-fight pick for him to win inside the distance.
• Medic closed as a substantial betting favorite after opening around -500. Rodriguez entered the contest as the betting underdog.
• In the co-main event, Navajo Stirling defeated Jan Blachowicz by TKO in the opening round.

The biggest UFC betting storylines from UFC Vegas 120

• A lightweight bout headlined the UFC’s August 8 UFC Fight Night card in Las Vegas, with Mateusz Gamrot facing Quillan Salkilld.
• Salkilld continued his unbeaten UFC run by submitting Gamrot with a rear-naked choke at 4:25 of the first round.
• The result gave Salkilld his fifth finish in six UFC appearances and established him as a rising contender in the lightweight division.
• The pre-fight betting pick backed Salkilld to continue climbing the rankings, although the victory came by submission rather than knockout.

The biggest UFC betting storylines from UFC Sacramento

• UFC Sacramento took place on August 22 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California, with Gregory Rodrigues defeating Anthony Hernandez by unanimous decision in the middleweight main event.
• Rodrigues won by scores of 48-47, 49-46 and 48-47 after five rounds.
• Hernandez closed as approximately a -220 favorite, while Rodrigues was around +180, making the result a notable underdog win.
• Our pre-fight pick backed Rodrigues to win, although the victory came by decision rather than knockout.

The biggest UFC betting storylines from UFC Shanghai

• UFC Shanghai closed out the August schedule on the 29th, with Song Yadong knocking out Umar Nurmagomedov in the bantamweight main event.
• Song landed the finishing right uppercut at 1:48 of the second round, handing Nurmagomedov the second loss of his career.
• Nurmagomedov closed around -600, while Song was approximately +440, making it one of the biggest UFC betting upsets of August.
• The result strengthens Song’s position in the bantamweight title picture after consecutive wins over Deiveson Figueiredo and Nurmagomedov.

The 360° angle of Song Yadong’s KO over Umar Nurmagomhee at #UFCShanghai 📹

via @ufc pic.twitter.com/MRp94oBn84

— UFC on TNT Sports (@ufcontnt) September 1, 2026

UFC futures market check

• UFC 331 is the main futures focus for September, with Joshua Van defending the flyweight title against Alexandre Pantoja on September 19.
• Van is currently around -115, with Pantoja near -105, making the title fight close to a pick’em.
• Arman Tsarukyan remains a significant favorite over Mauricio Ruffy in the five-round lightweight co-main event, at approximately -380 to Ruffy’s +300.
• Song Yadong’s knockout of heavily favored Umar Nurmagomedov was one of the biggest results from the August betting slate.

Betting trends we’re watching this month

• The closest major market we are watching in September is Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 331. Van is around -115 and Pantoja is near -105.
• Arman Tsarukyan remains heavily favored against Mauricio Ruffy, but Ruffy’s +300 underdog price and knockout power make the market worth monitoring.
• The August results also provided two reminders about backing large favorites: Gregory Rodrigues defeated favored Anthony Hernandez, while Song Yadong knocked out Umar Nurmagomedov despite closing around +440.

What could move odds before next UFC update

For UFC 331, the Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja rematch is the market most likely to move. The closely matched opening line means either fighter could become the clearer favorite as more action arrives. Van’s recent title defense could attract support, while bettors backing Pantoja may view the first fight’s injury stoppage as unrepresentative. Tsarukyan is likely to remain a significant favorite over Ruffy, although the underdog’s knockout power could attract interest if his price moves beyond +300.

Previous UFC betting news updates

• [August 29, 2026] Song Yadong knocked out Umar Nurmagomedov with a right uppercut at 1:48 of the second round in the UFC Shanghai main event.
• [August 22, 2026] Gregory Rodrigues defeated Anthony Hernandez by unanimous decision in the UFC Sacramento main event.
• [August 2026] Islam Makhachev successfully defended the UFC welterweight title against Ian Machado Garry by unanimous decision at UFC 330. Mackenzie Dern also retained the strawweight title with a unanimous-decision win over Gillian Robertson.
• [July 2026] Betting favorites are 11-9 in UFC main events in 2026. The UFC 327 main event between Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg, which ended with Ulberg winning the vacant UFC light heavyweight title via TKO, closed with even odds, as did the UFC Perth matchup between Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates, which ended with a Prates knockout win.
• [July 2026] betting favorites went 10-1 in the recent UFC Abu Dhabi fight card. 
• [July 2026] Debuting fighters went 5-1 in Abu Dhabi.
• [July 2026] Max Holloway defeated Conor McGregor by first-round TKO in the UFC 329 main event after McGregor suffered a knee injury 69 seconds into the fight.
• [July 2026] Paddy Pimblett submitted Benoit Saint Denis in the UFC 329 co-main event. Mario Bautista defeated Cory Sandhagen by unanimous decision, Brandon Royval defeated Lone’er Kavanagh, and King Green stopped Terrance McKinney.
• [June 2026] Betting favorites went 5-1 on the UFC Freedom 250 card.
• [May 2026] Betting favorites went 8-5 on the UFC 328 fight card.
• [April 2026] Betting favorites went 7-2 on the UFC 327 fight card. Two fights had even odds on fight night and one contest ended in a draw.
• [March 2026] Betting favorites went 8-4 on the UFC 326 card.

Trent Reinsmith

Trent is a professional sports journalist specializing in UFC, MMA, and esports coverage. His work has been featured in prestigious publications such as USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively. Trent's connection to MMA dates back to the early days when he and his friends pooled their resources to purchase the pay-per-...

Read More About the Author