Necaxa vs Cruz Azul: Two Struggling Sides Clash

  • Necaxa vs Cruz Azul, Liga MX Apertura
  • October 4, 2023
  • 9 PM EST
  • Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes, Mexico 
  • FuboTV

In this late weeknight matchup, Cruz Azul takes on Necaxa in a Liga MX battle at the bottom. Considered one of the first modern stadiums, Necaxa have made Estadio Victoria their home since moving out of Mexico City. Now the club hosts one of their former capital rivals Cruz Azul, who currently share their place in last. Which team will shake off their woes and return to the winning column? Continue reading for a prediction of this Necaxa vs Cruz Azul game and discover betting odds, tips, stats and much more.

Necaxa vs Cruz Azul Prediction: Who Do Sportsbooks Think Will Win?

Necaxa is a slight underdog despite playing in front of home fans on Wednesday. The club is priced at (+225) to secure the maximum haul. Conversely, Cuatro Grandes member Cruz Azul boasts a line of (+130) as visitors. A draw would pay bettors (+252). To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our tips for soccer betting.

Liga MXBetOnline ReviewBetUS ReviewBovada
Cruz Azul+130+118+125

Liga MX: Los Cuatro Grandes and a Divided Season

Liga MX is similar to the Saudi Pro League and many other smaller soccer leagues across the world. These domestic competitions are typically dominated by a small group of elite clubs, who are the most popular, successful, and financially supported. In Mexico, these clubs are Club America, Chivas Guadalajara, Cruz Azul and Pumas UNAM, with only Chivas located outside of the capital. They represent Los Cuatro Grandes and are well respected across the globe. 

The season is divided into two tournaments: Apertura and Clausura. Clubs compete in the league to earn qualification for the liguilla. So after one calendar year, two champions are crowned. This exciting format adds relevance to each game, with results more valuable than in other leagues whose seasons last from the fall to late spring.

How is Cruz Azul Doing This Season?

Cruz Azul approach this game with confidence following an impressive victory against San Luis. Despite their opponent making a strong push early with numerous scoring opportunities, Cruz Azul remained strong. At the onset of the second half, Cruz Azul managed to break the deadlock and take the lead at the 52-minute mark. San Luis recovered to level the scoreline in the 70th minute, before Cruz Azul struck the winning blow late.

Overall, the club’s performance this campaign has been characterized by inconsistency, marked by losses at home but commendable results in away games. Notably, Cruz Azul has remained unbeaten in their last three away matches, showcasing their mettle on the road. This ability to secure crucial points, especially in away fixtures, underscores their potential for success in future encounters.

Slow Playstyle Not Enough in Liga MX

Necaxa’s propensity to slow games down and try to keep scoring at a minimum has been good enough for draws, but not wins. While the team has gone four straight games without losing, they only have 6 points to show for it. This playstyle is not a great fit for a league like Liga MX, which prizes goal scoring ability. It’s not surprising the Aguascalientes residents have found themselves at the bottom of the table. 

In fact, Necaxa has only two multi-goal games since February 15. A horrific drought like this one is difficult for teams to climb out of without a change in manager. Whether for a change in pace, boost in morale, or simply to use a scapegoat, managerial changes are typically beneficial in the short term.

Necaxa Front Office: A Downright Mess

Unfortunately, the old managerial switcheroo tactic may have been exhausted. Necaxa has now had 4 different managers in the last 5 months, and no success is in sight for all their troubles. The front office has been in complete shambles as well. Controversial general manager José Hanan has performed poorly in assembling the team’s roster, and further tarnished the club’s reputation by instigating a brawl with Atlético de San Luis officials during a summer friendly match.

The tipping point might have been Necaxa’s handling of an offer from Barcelona for the promising young talent Heriberto Jurado as the transfer window came to a close. Despite interest from the Spanish giants, Necaxa refused to budge from its steep asking price of $10 million dollars. This decision stands in stark contrast to Cruz Azul, who managed to sell Santiago Giménez – a key player for the team – to Feyenoord for $8 million dollars just last year.

Necaxa vs Cruz Azul Prediction and Free Betting Pick

While Necaxa is the home side, they have been terrible and a stretch of close draws does not convince me things have gotten any better. Necaxa are a poorly run organization that will need time – and most importantly – change, to improve their place in the table. 

Cruz Azul have struggled this season also, but the underlying statistics tell a different story. Expected goals for the team indicate a more potent offense than what is reflected in the box score. Additionally, they have suffered from some bad luck on defense as well. In total, Cruz Azul have endured a -0.54 expected goals per game differential compared to actual results. Expected goals are a great tool to make good soccer betting picks and predictions.

I think Cruz Azul are the worthy favorite despite making the trip to Aguascalientes, and should be near – money here. At a market-best price of (+130) at highly-rated online sportsbook Betonline, we are getting a very playable line on Cruz Azul to take home all 3 points. I think this is a great spot to take advantage and possibly earn money off sportsbooks who are putting too much stock in a recent Necaxa win over also-bad Santos.

Take Cruz Azul to continue their away success and defeat a reeling Necaxa side.

Cruz AzulTo Defeat Necaxa
Bet now

Top Sportsbooks to Bet on Cruz Azul Game

Explore the top-rated online soccer betting platforms featured here. Enhance your soccer betting journey with these reputable sportsbooks and enjoy a superior betting experience.

Badge ranking partner




50% up to $1,000

Bet Now
Badge ranking partner




125% Sports Bonus - up to $2,500

Bet Now
Badge ranking partner




50% up to $1,000

Bet Now

Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. He regularly attends games in the area such as those of the Boston Red Sox, Boston Bruins, Boston Celtics, New England Patriots, New England Revolution. He also enjoys the world of mixed martial arts (MMA), having made the trek down to New York to see major ufc events like UFC 268. Beyond typical American pro and college sports, Will devours practically any type of sports that crosses his path, including F1, tennis, and golf. During his college years, Will found a way to fuse his unwavering passion for sports with his natural talent for writing, embarking on a journey as a sports journalist. This career path allowed him to blend his keen insights with his knack for storytelling, capturing the essence of athletic events and personalities in vivid detail. Today, Will has evolved into a trusted figure in the realm of sports betting analysis. Drawing on his extensive knowledge and intuitive grasp of the intricacies of various sports, he provides meticulous insights aimed at helping others capitalize on their own sports expertise. What sets him apart is his ability to uncover nuanced observations that often elude casual observers, presenting his findings with a straightforward, no-frills approach that resonates with his audience. When he's not meticulously dissecting sports matchups or analyzing betting odds, you'll likely find Will unwinding on his couch, delving into the captivating narratives of foreign films or picking up the odd book here and there. This eclectic mix of interests reflects his deep appreciation for both the thrill of competition and the artistry of storytelling.