Sergio Perez to win Japanese Grand Prix and get Red Bull back on track

The seemingly impossible has finally happened, with Red Bull failing to win the Singapore Grand Prix last Sunday. The F1 roadshow is in Suzuka for the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix this weekend, where Red Bull will be looking to bounce back with a win, and Max Verstappen is favored to do so at -300. In our latest Formula 1 betting picks, we tell you what the best F1 bets are and if that includes backing Verstappen or not.

  • What; 2023 Japanese Grand Prix – Round 17
  • Where; Suzuka International Racing Course, Suzuka, Japan
  • When; Sunday, September 24th, 2023
  • Time; 1 am ET
  • Laps; 53
  • Race Distance; 307.471 km

It has felt like Groundhog Day writing picks for Formula 1 races. Every weekend Max Verstappen is favored. And most weekends – as his odds are way too short – we have to look elsewhere for our picks.

Thankfully, in Singapore last Sunday, we finally had what we can call a proper Formula 1 race. Going into the final lap, Carlos Sainz was the leader, with Lando Norris, George Russell, and Lewis Hamilton all within a couple of seconds of the leader. Realistically, any of the four could have won.

In the end, Russell crashed out while pushing hard for the win, and Sainz held out to become the first non-Red Bull driver to win a race in 2023.

Are we likely to see more exciting finishes like this? Or is it back to normal – with Verstappen dominating – at Suzuka this weekend? Let’s see what the bookmakers think.

Betting to win the 2023 F1 Japanese Grand Prix

If the bookmakers have got things right, then – huge sigh – it looks like last weekend was simply a one-off race. The best Formula 1 betting sites make Max Verstappen -300 to win the Japanese Grand Prix. This is slightly longer odds than he has been lately, as he has been as short as -425 in recent weeks.

Behind Verstappen in the betting is his Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez, who is +1200. Perez is the second favorite every week in what has become an all too predictable betting market.

Then comes the rest of the field. This week, the best of the rest are headed up by the top two from the podium last Sunday, Carlos Sainz and Lando Norris, who are both +1600.

Lewis Hamilton is +2000, with Charles Leclerc at +2200 and George Russell at +2500. Showing how far Aston Martin has slipped in recent weeks, Oscar Piastri of McLaren is next in the betting at +3300, with No.1 Aston Martin driver Fernando Alonso down at +5000.

Full race betting is available below on our F1 odds table.

DriverBovadaBetOnline ReviewMyBookie Review
Max Verstappen-300-300-300
Sergio Perez+1200+1200+1200
Carlos Sainz+1600+1600+1600
Lando Norris+1600+1600+1600
Lewis Hamilton+2000+2000+2000
Charles Leclerc+2200+2200+2200
George Russell+2500+2500+2500
Oscar Piastri+3300+3300+3300
Fernando Alonso+5000+5000+5000
Lance Stroll+25000+25000+25000
Esteban Ocon+25000+25000+25000
Pierre Gasly+25000+25000+25000
Alex Albon+50000+50000+50000
Valtteri Bottas+50000+50000+50000
Guanyu Zhou+100000+100000+100000
Kevin Magnussen+100000+100000+100000
Yuki Tsunoda+100000+100000+100000
Nico Hulkenberg+100000+100000+100000
Logan Sargeant+100000+100000+100000
Liam Lawson+100000+100000+100000

Is everything okay at Red Bull?

For now, we have to assume it is. Christian Horner may have sounded a bit perplexed in this Sky Sports interview after his drivers were knocked out of qualifying in Q2, but he later said that they got the car right for the race.

We can only go with what we saw. The two Red Bulls were fighting their way through the field until the Safety Car effectively put an end to their respective races. So maybe it was just that Red Bull got the setup of the car for qualifying wrong, and they are unlikely to make the same mistake again anytime soon.

Our Japanese Grand Prix Picks

Even though Red Bull just looks to have had a bad day (or weekend) at the office, we’re still not going near Max Verstappen to win at -300 in our F1 betting picks. It’s just too risky at those short odds.

We do feel Red Bull will bounce back. And if we look at the race here last year, they had a 1-2 on the podium, with Verstappen taking the victory after starting on Pole Position. Verstappen won by over 27 seconds on the day, so there is no doubt that Red Bull can set their car up to win on this circuit.

Back Perez to further frustrate Verstappen

But as we said, Verstappen is too short at -300. So this weekend, we are going to back his teammate Sergio Perez to win the race instead. Before the poor showing from his Red Bull team last week, Perez finished second in Italy, fourth in the Netherlands, second in Belgium, and third in Hungary.

The Mexican has had a good run lately, so it could be his turn to stand on top of the podium this Sunday in Japan.

Sergio PerezTo win 2023 Japanese F1 Grand Prix
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Ferrari are worth a small wager

Ferrari also showed a liking for this circuit in the 2022 race. Charles Leclerc started from second on the grid, with Carlos Sainz in third position. Leclerc went on to finish third, but unfortunately, Sainz succumbed to an accident and had to retire.

Can the team score back-to-back wins with a victory at Suzuka? It does sound like a long shot, considering how dominant Red Bull has been. But this is one of those occasions where we end up kicking ourselves if a Ferrari wins again and we haven’t backed them.

At odds of +900, we think a bet on any Ferrari winning is worth a small wager.

Any FerrariTo win 2023 Japanese F1 Grand Prix
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Dean Etheridge

Dean is primarily a fan of English football who regularly attends games, and combining his hobby with his job, he is now a full-time sports betting writer.  Rather than going down the educational route into sports journalism, Dean learned his trade by writing for his English football betting website since 2009, where he now boasts nearly 15 years of experience. After writing about football daily for years, Dean has taken the skills he learned and now uses them to great effect writing for numerous affiliate sites across the internet.  A general all-around sports enthusiast with a passion for English football and cricket, Dean is also well able to turn his hand to writing about golf, tennis, F1, boxing, snooker, darts, and North American sports. Combining his extensive knowledge and experience with British humor and wit, Dean has developed into a trusted voice within the sports betting industry.