The seemingly impossible has finally happened, with Red Bull failing to win the Singapore Grand Prix last Sunday. The F1 roadshow is in Suzuka for the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix this weekend, where Red Bull will be looking to bounce back with a win, and Max Verstappen is favored to do so at -300. In our latest Formula 1 betting picks, we tell you what the best F1 bets are and if that includes backing Verstappen or not.
- What; 2023 Japanese Grand Prix – Round 17
- Where; Suzuka International Racing Course, Suzuka, Japan
- When; Sunday, September 24th, 2023
- Time; 1 am ET
- Laps; 53
- Race Distance; 307.471 km
It has felt like Groundhog Day writing picks for Formula 1 races. Every weekend Max Verstappen is favored. And most weekends – as his odds are way too short – we have to look elsewhere for our picks.
Thankfully, in Singapore last Sunday, we finally had what we can call a proper Formula 1 race. Going into the final lap, Carlos Sainz was the leader, with Lando Norris, George Russell, and Lewis Hamilton all within a couple of seconds of the leader. Realistically, any of the four could have won.
In the end, Russell crashed out while pushing hard for the win, and Sainz held out to become the first non-Red Bull driver to win a race in 2023.
— SingaporeGP (@F1NightRace) September 17, 2023
Are we likely to see more exciting finishes like this? Or is it back to normal – with Verstappen dominating – at Suzuka this weekend? Let’s see what the bookmakers think.
Betting to win the 2023 F1 Japanese Grand Prix
If the bookmakers have got things right, then – huge sigh – it looks like last weekend was simply a one-off race. The best Formula 1 betting sites make Max Verstappen -300 to win the Japanese Grand Prix. This is slightly longer odds than he has been lately, as he has been as short as -425 in recent weeks.
Behind Verstappen in the betting is his Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez, who is +1200. Perez is the second favorite every week in what has become an all too predictable betting market.
Then comes the rest of the field. This week, the best of the rest are headed up by the top two from the podium last Sunday, Carlos Sainz and Lando Norris, who are both +1600.
Lewis Hamilton is +2000, with Charles Leclerc at +2200 and George Russell at +2500. Showing how far Aston Martin has slipped in recent weeks, Oscar Piastri of McLaren is next in the betting at +3300, with No.1 Aston Martin driver Fernando Alonso down at +5000.
Full race betting is available below on our F1 odds table.
Is everything okay at Red Bull?
For now, we have to assume it is. Christian Horner may have sounded a bit perplexed in this Sky Sports interview after his drivers were knocked out of qualifying in Q2, but he later said that they got the car right for the race.
"It's very very confusing" 😕
Christian Horner on a frustrating qualifying session for Red Bull, and admits starting from outside the top 10 will make things difficult 💬 pic.twitter.com/tibkpx843a
— Sky Sports F1 (@SkySportsF1) September 16, 2023
We can only go with what we saw. The two Red Bulls were fighting their way through the field until the Safety Car effectively put an end to their respective races. So maybe it was just that Red Bull got the setup of the car for qualifying wrong, and they are unlikely to make the same mistake again anytime soon.
Our Japanese Grand Prix Picks
Even though Red Bull just looks to have had a bad day (or weekend) at the office, we’re still not going near Max Verstappen to win at -300 in our F1 betting picks. It’s just too risky at those short odds.
We do feel Red Bull will bounce back. And if we look at the race here last year, they had a 1-2 on the podium, with Verstappen taking the victory after starting on Pole Position. Verstappen won by over 27 seconds on the day, so there is no doubt that Red Bull can set their car up to win on this circuit.
Back Perez to further frustrate Verstappen
But as we said, Verstappen is too short at -300. So this weekend, we are going to back his teammate Sergio Perez to win the race instead. Before the poor showing from his Red Bull team last week, Perez finished second in Italy, fourth in the Netherlands, second in Belgium, and third in Hungary.
The Mexican has had a good run lately, so it could be his turn to stand on top of the podium this Sunday in Japan.
Ferrari are worth a small wager
Ferrari also showed a liking for this circuit in the 2022 race. Charles Leclerc started from second on the grid, with Carlos Sainz in third position. Leclerc went on to finish third, but unfortunately, Sainz succumbed to an accident and had to retire.
Can the team score back-to-back wins with a victory at Suzuka? It does sound like a long shot, considering how dominant Red Bull has been. But this is one of those occasions where we end up kicking ourselves if a Ferrari wins again and we haven’t backed them.
At odds of +900, we think a bet on any Ferrari winning is worth a small wager.
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