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- What: Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
- Date: Monday, March 4, 2024
- Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- How to Watch: NESN, ESPN+
Two clubs in the NHL’s Eastern Conference, who are both near the top of the Atlantic Division standing and heading in opposite directions, face off tonight in Canada when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Boston Bruins at Scotiabank Arena.
The Boston Bruins (35-13-14) recently ceded the top spot in the Eastern Conference to the Florida Panthers. The Bruins were among the most dominant teams during the first half of the 2024 NHL season. However, the team has slipped since late January. Boston is 6-5-5 since that date, winning three of those games in overtime. The good news for the Bruins is that despite their struggles, they still picked up points in their five OT setbacks. Boston is 16-6-9 on the road in 2024.
The Toronto Maple Leafs (35-17-9) trail the Bruins by six points in the Atlantic Division. Toronto is 12-3 going back to January 24 and are currently riding a two-game winning streak, with both those victories taking place on home ice. Toronto has a 17-11-2 record at Scotiabank Arena.
Before we look at the betting breakdown for tonight’s game between the Boston Bruins and the Toronto Maple Leafs, check out our betting picks to win the 2024 Stanley Cup and our tips for betting on the NHL.
Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs betting picks – March 4, 2024
 | Puck Line | Money Line | Total |
| Boston Bruins | +1.5 (-200) | +116 | Ov 6 (-116) |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | -1.5 (+170) | -130 | Un 6 (+100) |
Boston Bruins betting breakdown
Team defense has been one of the keys for the Boston Bruins. The team has averaged 2.76 goals against per game in 2024, which ranks them fifth in the Eastern Conference. Boston has allowed those goals on 31.5 shots allowed per game, which is the 10th highest shots allowed per game in the league. Boston’s goal differential of plus-34 ranks third in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the Bruins are 10th in average goals scored per game with 3.31 on the 19th most shots taken per game at 30.1.
David Pastrnak is the offensive leader of the Bruins. The winger has a team-leading 87 points. Pastrnak also leads the club in goals (34) and assists (49). Pastrnak is fourth in the NHL in scoring on the season. He is on pace to set a career-high in points. Brad Marchand is second in team scoring with 53 points (26 goals, 27 assists). Look for the Bruins to pick up some offensive help at the NHL trade deadline.
Boston’s goaltending duo of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman have split time in net for the Bruins, and both are playing well. The duo has combined for a 2.76 goals against average and a .919 save percentage. The Bruins have mostly alternated the two as starters over the past few weeks.
Boston is No. 8 in the NHL in power play (23.3 percent) and ninth on the penalty kill (81.4 percent).
Toronto Maple Leafs betting breakdown
The Toronto Maple Leafs made it past the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2023 for the first time since 2004, and while many felt the team should have gone further than that, the team’s success in the postseason had fans looking forward to 2024. Things did not turn out well for the Leafs early in 2024, but the team is surging as of late, including a seven-game winning streak, which is the team’s best run since 2003.
Ilya Samsonov has not played well this season. The team waived him and then loaned him to the Toronto Marlies of the AHL after he went unclaimed on waivers. Samsonov has played better as of late, going 10-2-0 in his past 12 starts, but look for Joseph Woll to start picking up more starts. Woll returned to the ice on February 29 after missing 35 games with a high-ankle sprain.
William Nylander leads the team in scoring with 83 points. He is also tops on the team in assists with 50. Meanwhile, Auston Matthews topped the 50-goal barrier for the second time in his career. Matthews has 53 goals in 59 games. Matthews scored 15 goals during February. He is the only player in the NHL with more than 43 goals this season.
The Leafs are the top goal-scoring teams in the league, with an average of 3.65 goals per game. However, the club is in the bottom half of the NHL in goals allowed per game, with an average of 3.15. Toronto ranks second in the NHL in power play efficiency, scoring at a clip of 28.4 percent. The team’s penalty kill is 21st in the league at 78.1 percent.
Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs betting trends
The Toronto Maple Leafs have been the betting favorite 50 times in the 2024 NHL season and have won 30 of those games. The Boston Bruins have been the betting underdog six times this year and have pulled off the upset in three of those contests.
The Maple Leafs have averaged 4.7 goals per game over their past 10 outings and have given up an average of 2.7 goals during that same time. Meanwhile, the Bruins scored an average of 2.9 goals per game in their 10 most recent games and surrendered an average of 3.6 goals in those matchups.
The Maple Leafs and Bruins have played twice this year. Boston has won both games, beating Toronto 3-2 in a shootout in Boston and topping them 4-3 in OT in Toronto. The first of those games occurred in early November, and the second took place in early December.
Best bets for Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Expect a close game tonight in Toronto, but the Maple Leafs are simply playing better as a team than the Bruins right now. The betting pick is for the Maple Leafs to beat the Bruins.
Boston is struggling to get wins this year, but the team is still an effective scoring unit; add to that fact that the Maple Leafs are missing several defensemen due to injury, and the betting pick is for the Bruins and Maple Leafs to combine for over six goals.
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