Steve Starr
- Penrith (+140) is favored to win the NRL Premiership grand final for the third-straight year
- Brisbane (+325) sits atop the the National Rugby League ladder with 16 victories
- ACCOR Stadium in Sydney, Australia will host the NRL Grand Final on Sunday, October 1, 2023
Penrith is looking for the first NRL three-peat in over 40 years, but the Brisbane Broncos have kept pace with the Panthers atop the standings all season. With only four rounds to go until the eight-team playoffs begin, let’s look at who’s favored to win the Premiership grand final this October in Sydney.
Before we examine the odds and make our picks, check out the top Rugby Betting Sites in 2023. You can also stay up to date with the latest betting tips on the 2023 Rugby Union World Cup.
2023 NRL Grand Final Winner
| Team |  |  |  |
| Penrith Panthers | +140 | +140 | +140 |
| Brisbane Broncos | +325 | +325 | +325 |
| Melbourne Storm | +650 | +650 | +650 |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | +1100 | +1100 | +1100 |
| New Zealand Warriors | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| North Queensland Cowboys | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Parramatta Eels | +6000 | +6000 | +6000 |
| Cronulla Sharks | +6000 | +6000 | +6000 |
| Newcastle Knights | +6000 | +6000 | +6000 |
| Canberra Raiders | +6600 | +6600 | +6600 |
| Sydney Roosters | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Manly Sea Eagles | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Gold Coast Titans | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Dolphins | +75000 | +75000 | +75000 |
Penrith’s path to a three-peat
Penrith (+140) is coming off a statement victory over Melbourne (+650) in Round 23. The Panthers crushed the third-place Storm 26-6 on Friday for their eighth-consecutive home win. Having not lost since mid-June, the reigning champions have a 15-5 record, sitting atop the ladder with Brisbane.
Looking to win their first premiership since 2006, the Broncos (+325) have been crushing opponents all season. While they fell to the Panthers 15-4 back in May, Brisbane won the first meeting between the two powerhouses 13-12 in March.
FT. Storm level downgraded ππ½#pantherpride πΎ pic.twitter.com/b3KtuQ51Ts
— Penrith Panthers ππ (@PenrithPanthers) August 4, 2023
Fans buying up tickets
With Penrith and Brisbane sitting atop the NRL ladder all year, both teams’ fanbases were quick to gobble up tickets for the Premiership grand final when they went on sale last week. Together, fans of both clubs claimed 42 percent of tickets sold (21% each) for the October 1 match in ACCOR Stadium in Sydney.
Which squads could play spoiler in the postseason? Let’s examine the best longshots to upset the Panthers’ three-peat bid.
Grand Final contenders
Melbourne (+650) is seeking its third premiership in the past seven seasonsΒ as Craig Bellamy, one of the greatest coaches in NRL history, looks to go out on top. However, the Storm have been handedly defeated by Penrith twice in the past month, losing 26-6 and 34-16.
The Rabbitohs (+1100) beat both the Panthers and Broncos back in April. South Sydney hasn’t captured a Grand Final victory since their first and only championship in 2014. They have a chance this year if they recapture their early-season form. But, they’re also no lock for the playoffs with 12 teams still fighting for places in the top eight.
Reyno and Kobe will miss Saturday's XXXX Derby taking no risks this late in the season.
Full update π
— Brisbane Broncos (@brisbanebroncos) August 4, 2023
What about the Kiwis?
New Zealand (+1200) sit third in the ladder with 32 points after capturing seven of their last eight contests. Seeking their first NRL championship, the Warriors still must prove they can win against top competition. While they have 13 victories in 2023, none have come against Penrith, Brisbane, Melbourne or South Sydney.
Best Bet
While it’s never fun to pick the favorite, the Panthers look headed for the league’s first three-peat since the early 1980s. Of the team’s five losses, four came in the season’s first three months. Having suffered only one defeat since the start of May, Penrith (+140) is the clear choice to win the Premiership grand final once again.Β
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