UFC Betting News and Analysis This Month | UFC 331 Futures, Trends & Market Movement | August 2026

Trent Reinsmithby Trent Reinsmith
Updated: August 17, 2026

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In major UFC betting news, Islam Makhachev defeated Ian Machado Garry by unanimous decision in the UFC 330 main event, successfully defending the UFC welterweight title. In the co-main event, UFC strawweight champion Mackenzie Dern retained her title with a unanimous-decision win over Gillian Robertson.

Attention now shifts to UFC 331, where UFC flyweight champion Joshua Van will defend his title in a rematch against former champion Alexandre Pantoja. UFC 331 takes place on September 19 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.

The UFC schedule remains packed for August, with five fight cards taking place during the month. The Belgrade, UFC Vegas 120 and UFC 330 cards are complete, while UFC Sacramento takes place on August 22 before the month wraps up with UFC Shanghai on August 29.

Below, we break down the best betting angles, storylines and odds movement surrounding UFC 331 and the remaining August UFC events.

The biggest UFC betting storylines for UFC 331

  • The UFC has officially booked flyweight champion Joshua Van to defend his title against former champion Alexandre Pantoja in the main event of UFC 331 on September 19 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
  • Van won the title when Pantoja suffered an arm injury 26 seconds into their first meeting at UFC 323. Van has since successfully defended the belt against Tatsuro Taira, while Pantoja will return looking to reclaim the championship he lost through injury.
  • The main-event betting market is close. Van is currently available at approximately -120, while Pantoja is listed around -105. Bettors should continue to compare the moneyline because the favorite could vary between sportsbooks.
  • In the five-round lightweight co-main event, Arman Tsarukyan faces Mauricio Ruffy. Tsarukyan is currently a significant favorite at approximately -385, with Ruffy available around +300.
  • Tsarukyan is looking to strengthen his case for a lightweight title shot, but Ruffy enters the matchup on a three-fight winning streak. The underdog’s knockout power makes the method-of-victory market another one to monitor.
  • Other UFC 331 matchups include Renato Moicano vs. Brian Ortega, Patricio Pitbull vs. Doo Ho Choi, Tai Tuivasa vs. Robelis Despaigne and Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf.

The biggest UFC betting storylines for UFC Belgrade

  • UFC Belgrade took place on August 1 at Belgrade Arena in Serbia. In the main event, Uros Medic defeated Daniel Rodriguez by TKO just 30 seconds into the first round.
  • Medic extended his winning streak to four fights and recorded another knockout victory, supporting the pre-fight pick for him to win inside the distance.
  • Medic closed as a substantial betting favorite after opening around -500. Rodriguez entered the contest as the betting underdog.
  • In the co-main event, Navajo Stirling defeated Jan Blachowicz by TKO in the opening round.

The biggest UFC betting storylines from UFC Vegas 120

  • A lightweight bout headlined the UFC’s August 8 UFC Fight Night card in Las Vegas, with Mateusz Gamrot facing Quillan Salkilld.
  • Salkilld continued his unbeaten UFC run by submitting Gamrot with a rear-naked choke at 4:25 of the first round.
  • The result gave Salkilld his fifth finish in six UFC appearances and established him as a rising contender in the lightweight division.
  • The pre-fight betting pick backed Salkilld to continue climbing the rankings, although the victory came by submission rather than knockout.

 

The biggest UFC betting storylines for UFC Sacramento

  • On August 22, the UFC is at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California for a UFC Fight Night with a main event between middleweight contenders Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues.
  • Hernandez (15-3-1) recently saw his eight-fight UFC winning streak end when he fell to Sean Strickland via third-round TKO in February. Hernandez is the No. 6-ranked UFC fighter at 185 pounds.
  • Rodrigues (19-6) is riding a three-fight winning streak and is 6-1 dating back to August 2023. His most recent win was a March first-round KO of Brunno Ferreria. He is ranked at No. 11.
  • Current betting odds have Hernandez as approximately a -170 favorite, with Rodrigues available around +160. Prices vary between sportsbooks and could continue moving before fight night.
  • The betting pick is for Rodrigues to win his 13th career fight via knockout.

The biggest UFC betting storylines for UFC Shanghai

  • The final UFC event for August is scheduled for the 29th in China. In the headlining bout, No. 3-ranked UFC bantamweight Umar Nurmagomedov meets the No. 6-ranked Song Yadong.
  • Nurmagomedov (20-1) is looking to get back to a title shot. His only career loss was his UFC 311 decision setback to then-UFC champ Merab Dvalishvili. He is 2-0 since that loss with wins over Mario Bautista and, most recently, Deiveson Figueiredo in January.
  • Song (23-9-1-1), at 28, has been with the UFC since 2017. He is 3-2 dating back to December 2023 with wins over Chris Gutierrez, Henry Cejudo and, most recently, Figueiredo in May. Song’s losses have come to former UFC champs Petr Yan and Sean O’Malley.
  • The betting line has moved since opening, with Nurmagomedov now available at approximately -480 and Song around +420. The exact price varies between sportsbooks.
  • The betting pick is for Nurmagomedov to take another step toward a second UFC title shot with a decision win in Shanghai.

UFC futures market check

  • There are five UFC events scheduled for August, with the Belgrade, UFC Vegas 120 and UFC 330 cards now complete.
  • Islam Makhachev and Mackenzie Dern both retained their titles by unanimous decision at UFC 330.
  • Uros Medic and Quillan Salkilld both delivered first-round finishes in their respective August Fight Night main events.
  • The next betting focus is the August 22 card in Sacramento, where Anthony Hernandez is favored over Gregory Rodrigues.
  • The month ends in Shanghai, where Umar Nurmagomedov is a substantial favorite over Song Yadong in the bantamweight main event.

Betting trends we’re watching this month

  • There is a lot to look forward to in August with five UFC events on the books.
  • The co-main event of the August 1 card is a light heavyweight matchup between former UFC light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz and the undefeated Navajo Stirling. Sterling has moved from -200 to -315, while the ex-champ has gone from +170 to +265. There is some value in picking Blachowicz, but he is winless since May 2022 (0-2-2), so the surging Sterling is a favorite for a reason.
  • Two veterans who could be fighting for their jobs on August 15 are Geoff Neal and Chidi Njokauni. Neal is 1-4 dating back to May 2023 and his foe, Njokuani is 3-5 since September 2022. Both men are on two-fight losing skids, so that’s a fight to keep an eye on.
  • The co-main event of the China event is a women’s strawweight matchup between recent title challenger Yan Xiaonan and Denise Gomes. Yan is ranked No. 4 and Gomes is at No. 13. The betting odds have not been released for the upcoming contest.

What could move odds before next UFC update

For UFC 331, the Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja rematch is the market most likely to move. The closely matched opening line means either fighter could become the clearer favorite as more action arrives. Van’s recent title defense could attract support, while bettors backing Pantoja may view the first fight’s injury stoppage as unrepresentative. Tsarukyan is likely to remain a significant favorite over Ruffy, although the underdog’s knockout power could attract interest if his price moves beyond +300.

Previous UFC betting news updates

  • [August 2026] Islam Makhachev successfully defended the UFC welterweight title against Ian Machado Garry by unanimous decision at UFC 330. Mackenzie Dern also retained the strawweight title with a unanimous-decision win over Gillian Robertson.
  • [July 2026] Betting favorites are 11-9 in UFC main events in 2026. The UFC 327 main event between Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg, which ended with Ulberg winning the vacant UFC light heavyweight title via TKO, closed with even odds, as did the UFC Perth matchup between Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates, which ended with a Prates knockout win.
  • [July 2026] betting favorites went 10-1 in the recent UFC Abu Dhabi fight card. 
  • [July 2026] Debuting fighters went 5-1 in Abu Dhabi.
  • [July 2026] Max Holloway defeated Conor McGregor by first-round TKO in the UFC 329 main event after McGregor suffered a knee injury 69 seconds into the fight.
  • [July 2026] Paddy Pimblett submitted Benoit Saint Denis in the UFC 329 co-main event. Mario Bautista defeated Cory Sandhagen by unanimous decision, Brandon Royval defeated Lone’er Kavanagh, and King Green stopped Terrance McKinney.
  • [June 2026] Betting favorites went 5-1 on the UFC Freedom 250 card.
  • [May 2026] Betting favorites went 8-5 on the UFC 328 fight card.
  • [April 2026] Betting favorites went 7-2 on the UFC 327 fight card. Two fights had even odds on fight night and one contest ended in a draw.
  • [March 2026] Betting favorites went 8-4 on the UFC 326 card.

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Trent Reinsmith

Trent is a professional sports journalist specializing in UFC, MMA, and esports coverage. His work has been featured in prestigious publications such as USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively. Trent's connection to MMA dates back to the early days when he and his friends pooled their resources to purchase the pay-per-...

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