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- What: UFC 325 Featherweight Championship Fight
- Who: Diego Lopes vs. Alexander Volkanovski
- When: Saturday, January 31, 2026
- Where: Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia
Alexander Volkanovski defends his featherweight title against Diego Lopes in a rematch. The pair first met at UFC 314 in April 2025. Volkanovski won that fight via unanimous decision to capture the vacant championship belt.
Volkanovski enters with a 27-4 MMA record and ranks number one at featherweight. The 36-year-old champion is fighting at home in Australia for the first time in three years. This marks the first defense of his second reign with the featherweight belt. In their first meeting, Volkanovski overwhelmed Lopes 158-63 in significant strikes.
On the other side of the octagon, Lopes holds a 27-7 MMA record and is ranked fourth in the featherweight division. The Brazilian rebounded from his loss to Volkanovski with a second-round TKO over Jean Silva in September. He knocked Volkanovski down during their first fight, but couldn’t capitalize. He has finished four of his last five opponents, all within two rounds.
Before we look at the best bets for Diego Lopes vs. Alexander Volkanovski on the UFC 325 card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find out how to bet the UFC as well.
UFC 325: Diego Lopes vs. Alexander Volkanovski Odds
| Winner |  |  |  |
| Diego Lopes | +127 | +124 | +127 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | -147 | -147 | -147 |
Volkanovski’s path to victory relies on his superior tactical control and volume striking. In their last fight, his quick footwork and sharp jab kept Lopes off balance. He controlled the distance, making Lopes chase him the whole time.
The champion won three rounds last fight, despite suffering a knockdown in the second round. Volkanovski’s superior conditioning and championship experience give him an edge in close rounds. He found smart counters and movement to control the pace of the fight.
Lopes attacked in short bursts, but couldn’t keep up the pressure for the whole fight. He needs to rely on his strong finishing power and unpredictable boxing. His knockout threat remains the great equalizer in this matchup. He demonstrated he can hurt Volkanovski, evidenced by the round two knockdown.
In safe hands 🏆
@AlexVolkanovski is ready to defend his title at #UFC325![ SAT JAN 31 | LIVE on @ParamountPlus ] pic.twitter.com/9ObJhvk9t3
— UFC (@ufc) January 26, 2026
Lopes’ boxing is fast, heavy and unpredictable against conventional opponents. His tough chin allows him to survive and force chaotic exchanges in the ring. These moments favor his explosive power over Volkanovski’s technical approach. His best chance is to land a knockout or accumulate repeated knockdowns. Lopes has finished four of his last five opponents inside two rounds.
For Lopes to have any chance in this rematch, he will need to turn those short exchanges into longer attacks. An upset bid will require perfect timing and constant pressure from the opening bell. Volkanovski’s age is a worry, especially after two straight knockout losses in a row. This raises real questions about his durability. Lopes is younger and has improved, as seen in his knockout win over Jean Silva last year.
All of this makes me think an upset is on the horizon. Lopes has the momentum and looks like he’s reaching his peak as a fighter.
I’ll take him to pull off the upset at +127 odds at Bovada.
Total Rounds
| Rounds | | | |
| Over 4.5 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Under 4.5 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
The total rounds market correlates to the winner of the fight. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Volkanovski. Lopes’ aggressive style and power suggest he is seeking an early stoppage. His knockout threat is the equalizer in this matchup.
The Brazilian must pressure Volkanovski relentlessly from the opening bell. A finish before round five means Lopes wins by knockout or technical knockout.
https://twitter.com/ufc/status/2015605861784371435
If Volkanovski can use his conditioning and cardio to survive early exchanges with Lopes, he will win a fight that goes to decision.
Since I’m taking Lopes to win the fight, I’m expecting it to be a shorter fight than anticipated. Under 4.5 rounds at -110 odds is the pick.
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