UFC Betting News and Analysis This Month | McGregor Vs. Holloway 2 Anchors July, Fight Card Trends & Market Movement | July, 2026

Trent Reinsmithby Trent Reinsmith
Updated: July 1, 2026

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In major UFC betting news, the promotion has two new champions following UFC Freedom 250. In the main event of that card, betting underdog Justin Gaethje upset Ilia Topuria to become the undisputed UFC lightweight champion. Meanwhile, in the co-main event, Ciryl Gane defeated Alex Pereira in a pick ’em fight to become the interim heavyweight champion, setting up a potential unification bout with heavyweight titleholder Tom Aspinall. In more recent UFC action, June closed with Rafael Fiziev knocking out Manuel Torres.

The big UFC news in July is the return of former two-division champion Conor McGregor. McGregor, who has not set foot inside the Octagon since he suffered a TKO loss to Dustin Poirier in July 2021, faces ex-featherweight and BMF titleholder Max Holloway in the main event of UFC 329 in a welterweight contest. McGregor defeated Holloway in August 2013, winning a decision in what was McGregor’s second UFC fight and Holloway’s sixth contest with the promotion. That matchup was at 145 pounds.

Following that July 11 event, the UFC holds two UFC Fight Night events to close out the month. On July 18, the promotion will be at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City for Dricus du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman and then in Abu Dhabi on July 25 for Magomed Ankalaev vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.

Below, we break down the best betting angles, storylines, odds movement, and what bettors should be watching heading into the upcoming UFC events. For all UFC betting news, check out our UFC Betting Guide, which contains all things MMA related, as well as our up-to-date UFC betting odds.

The biggest UFC betting storylines for UFC 329

  • The UFC has officially booked Conor McGregor to return against Max Holloway in the main event of UFC 329 during International Fight Week in July.
  • The 37-year-old McGregor is 1-3 since 2018. His losses came to Khabib Nurmagomedov (submission), and Dustin Poirier (TKO x 2). McGregor’s most recent win was a January 2020 TKO over Donald Cerrone.
  • Holloway, at 34, has fought eight times since McGregor last competed. His record over that time is 5-3 and includes two fights for the featherweight belt (losses) as well as competing for the symbolic BMF title (win) and a defense of that belt (loss). Holloway’s losses have been to Charles Oliveira (BMF title), Ilia Topuria (featherweight title), and Alex Volkanovski (featherweight title). Holloway’s wins have been against Yair Rodriguez (decision), Arnold Allen (decision), Korean Zombie (KO), Justin Gaethje (KO), and Dustin Poirier (decision).
  • The betting odds opened with Holloway as a significant betting favorite (-550) over McGregor (+420). Those odds have tightened, but Holloway remains a favorite (-225) over McGregor, who is the +190 betting underdog.
  • Max Holloway is the pick to win, but it might be worth holding off on a wager. As more money comes in on McGregor, expect Holloway to have more attractive betting odds. With that being said, if McGregor does win, it is likely to come via early knockout when he is fresh and still has power, so a value bet on that outcome makes sense.

The biggest UFC betting storylines for UFC Oklahoma City

  • The early betting line for the main event of the UFC Fight Night in Oklahoma City has former UFC middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis as the -315 betting favorite over former UFC welterweight titleholder Kamaru Usman, who checks in as the +265 betting underdog.
  • Du Plessis (23-3) has not fought since losing his title to Khamzat Chimaev in a one-sided affair in August 2025. The loss to Chimaev ended Du Plessis’s unbeaten run (9-0) in the UFC. Usman (21-4) is 1-3 since August 2022. He is 0-1 at 185 pounds, losing a decision to Chimaev in October 2023. Usman’s last fight was a June 2025 decision win over Joaquin Buckley at 170 pounds.
  • If Usman can use his wrestling to get Du Plessis down and keep him on the mat, he has some chance of winning. However, Du Plessis has a size and strength advantage that will make that difficult. The former middleweight champ is also a much more powerful (and awkward) striker.
  • A safe bet is Du Plessis to win. As for the outcome, it’s either going to be a knockout or decision. For those looking at getting some money on the underdog, pick Usman via decision.

The biggest UFC betting storylines for UFC Abu Dhabi

  • Magomed Ankalaev (20-2-1-1) looks to bounce back from his October 2025 UFC light heavyweight title losing setback to Alex Pereira when he faces Khalil Rountree (14-7-0-1) on July 25 in Abu Dhabi. Rountree is also coming off a loss, falling to former UFC 205-pound kingpin Jiri Prochazka via KO in October.
  • Ankalaev is currently the -310 betting favorite over the +260 Rountree.
  • Ankalaev was on a 15-fight unbeaten streak before falling to Pereira via knockout. In his previous outing, Ankalaev won the title with a decision over Pereira. Rountree, who fought Pereira for the UFC light heavyweight crown in October 2024, losing via knockout, is 1-2 in his past three outings. Before that, he was on a five-fight winning streak.
  • Ankalaev is a patient striker with good defense. He is a strong counter striker. Rountree is a tough and resilient striker, who often absorbs more strikes than he lands. His power and strong chin allow him to fight in this style.
  • The betting pick is an Ankalaev decision win. However, if Rountree can use his power to do more damage, he has an outside chance of stoppage victory or by picking up enough points to dissuade the judges from giving the decision to the more controlled Ankalaev.

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UFC futures market check

  • UFC 329, which takes place during International Fight Week is the big UFC event to focus on. The card is scheduled for July 11.
  • The headlining bout at UFC 329 is Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway 2, while in the co-main event, Paddy Pimblett faces Benoit Saint Denis in an important lightweight contest.
  • Pimblett is currently listed as the +150 betting underdog to the -175 Saint Denis.
  • The next title fights are scheduled for UFC 330 in Philadelphia on August 15. In the main event, Islam Makhachev (-365) defends his title against Ian Machado Garry (+290), while in the co-main event, strawweight champ Mackenzie Dern (-220) faces Gillian Robertson (+185)

Betting trends we’re watching this month

Along with the main event and co-main event of UFC 329, the UFC has announced other bouts for the UFC 329 main card. Below are those fights and the current betting odds:

  • Cory Sandhagen (-145) vs. Mario Bautista (+125)
  • Brandon Royval (+185) vs. Lone’er Kavanagh (-220)
  • King Green (+135) vs. Terrence McKinney (-155)

What could move odds before next UFC update

Look for Conor McGregor fans to continue to get behind their favorite fighter as UFC 329 nears. It would be a surprise to see McGregor move to a betting favorite because of his inactivity, but the odds still have room to get tighter and that could happen.

Previous UFC betting news updates

    • [June 2026] Betting favorites are 8-9 in UFC main events in 2026. The UFC 327 main event between Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg, which ended with Ulberg winning the vacant UFC light heavyweight title via TKO, closed with even odds, as did last week’s UFC Perth matchup between Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates, which ended with a Prates knockout win.
    • [June 2026] Betting favorites went 8-3 on the recent UFC Baku card.
    • [June 2026] Debuting fighters went 2-2 on the UFC Baku card.
    • [June 2026] Betting favorites went 5-1 on the recent UFC Freedom 250 card.
    • [May 2026] Betting favorites went 8-5 on the recent UFC 328 fight card.
    • [April 2026] Betting favorites went 7-2 on the recent UFC 327 fight card. Two fights had even odds on fight night and one contest ended in a draw.
    • [March 2026] Betting favorites went 8-4 on the UFC 326 card.

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