UFC Betting News and Analysis This Week | UFC Macau and Conor McGregor Returns, Fight Card Trends & Market Movement | May 20, 2026

Trent Reinsmithby Trent Reinsmith
Updated: May 20, 2026

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On Saturday, May 16, Ronda Rousey returned to the cage for the first time since December 2016 and did what she does best, ending her fight against Gina Carano quickly via armbar. The total time for the bout, which headlined the first MVP MMA fight card, was 17 seconds. Also on that card, former UFC heavyweight champ Francis Ngannou made short work of Philipe Lins, earning a knockout at 4:31 of Round 1. Mike Perry also earned a stoppage, getting a TKO win over Nate Diaz at 5:00 of Round 2.

In UFC action, Arnold Allen earned a unanimous decision over Melquizael Costa in the featherweight main event of UFC Vegas 117 at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas. The win keeps Allen inside the top 10 of the UFC’s 145-pound division.

There is no UFC event this coming weekend. The next fight card on the UFC schedule is the May 30 UFC Macau event at Galaxy Arena in Macau. In the main event of the Paramount+ streaming card, Song Yadong (22-9-1-1) faces former UFC flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo (25-6-1) in a bantamweight bout. Song is the No. 5 fighter in the UFC’s 135-pound rankings, while Figueiredo checks in at No. 7.

The big news coming out of the past weekend was the UFC announcing the return of former two-division champion Conor McGregor (22-6). McGregor, who has not set foot inside the Octagon since he suffered a TKO loss to Dustin Poirier in July 2021, is booked to face ex-featherweight and BMF titleholder Max Holloway (27-9) in the main event of UFC 329 in a welterweight contest. McGregor defeated Holloway in August 2013, winning a decision in what was McGregor’s second UFC fight and Holloway’s sixth contest with the promotion. That matchup was at 145 pounds.

Below, we break down the best betting angles, storylines, odds movement, and what bettors should be watching heading into the upcoming UFC events. For all UFC betting news, check out our UFC Betting Guide, which contains all things MMA related, as well as our up-to-date UFC betting odds.

The biggest UFC betting storylines this week

  • The main event of UFC Macau features two skilled battlers looking to bounce back from losses. Song Yadong is coming off a January decision setback to former champion Sean O’Malley, while Deiveson Figueiredo looks to come back from a January decision loss to Umar Nurmagomedov. Figueiredo also missed weight for that contest, coming in at 138.5 pounds for the 135-pound scrap.
  • This is an important matchup for these two veteran competitors. Song has been near the top of the division for a few years, however, recent losses to O’Malley and Petr Yan have prevented him from earning a 135-pound title shot. At 38, Figueiredo, who is 1-3 in his past four outings, is desperately in need of a victory if he hopes to get a chance at the bantamweight title before his career ends.
  • When the betting line opened for Song vs. Figueiredo, Song was the -300 betting favorite over the +250 Figueiredo. Today, Song is listed at -550, while Figueiredo checks in as the +420 betting underdog.
  • At 28, Song still has time to make a run at UFC gold. A win over a fading Figueiredo won’t get him that shot, but it could earn him a title eliminator bout.
  • The betting pick is for Song to earn his first knockout since he stopped Ricky Simon in 2023. The pick is for that stoppage to come before the fourth round.

Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway 2 betting outlook

  • After several false starts and rumors, the UFC has finally booked Conor McGregor for a return to the Octagon, and while he isn’t competing for a title, his fight against Max Holloway has been deemed notable enough for the fight to headline the UFC’s International Fight Week in July.
  • The 37-year-old McGregor is 1-3 since 2018. His losses came to Khabib Nurmagomedov (submission), and Dustin Poirier (TKO x 2). McGregor’s most recent win was a January 2020 TKO over Donald Cerrone.
  • Holloway, at 34, has fought eight times since McGregor last competed. His record over that time is 5-3 and includes two fights for the featherweight belt (losses) as well as competing for the symbolic BMF title (win) and a defense of that belt (loss). Holloway’s losses have been to Charles Oliveira (BMF title), Ilia Topuria (featherweight title), and Alex Volkanovski (featherweight title). Holloway’s wins have been against Yair Rodriguez (decision), Arnold Allen (decision), Korean Zombie (KO), Justin Gaethje (KO), and Dustin Poirier (decision).
  • The betting odds opened with Holloway as a significant betting favorite (-550) over McGregor (+420). Those odds have tightened, but Holloway remains a big favorite (-400) over McGregor, who is the +330 betting underdog.
  • The early betting pick is Max Holloway to win, but it might be worth holding off on a wager. As more money comes in on McGregor, expect Holloway to have more attractive betting odds. With that being said, if McGregor does win, it is likely to come via early knockout when he is fresh and still has power, so a value bet on that outcome makes sense.

Drop you’re fight predictions below⚔️⬇️

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UFC futures market check

  • UFC Freedom 250 on June 14 is the big card to watch. UFC Freedom 250 is scheduled for the White House lawn in Washington, D.C.
  • The headlining bout at UFC Freedom 250 is also a title fight. In that contest, the undefeated Ilia Topuria (17-0) puts his lightweight belt on the line against interim champion Justin Gaethje (27-5). Topuria, a former UFC featherweight titleholder, opened as the -600 favorite in that matchup, while Gaethje was +425. Today, the champ is a staggering -800 favorite over the challenger, who is listed at +550.
  • The second title fight on the UFC Freedom 250 card is for the interim heavyweight title. With champion Tom Aspinall on the sidelines with an eye injury, former two-division champion Alex Pereira (13-3) looks to add the interim heavyweight title to the middleweight and light heavyweight belts in his trophy case. Former interim champ, Ciryl Gane (13-2-0-1) will look to stop Pereira from becoming the first UFC three-division titleholder. Gane opened as the -200 favorite to the +170 Pereira. Those odds have tightened. Today, Pereira is -105, while Gane is -115, making the bout a pick ’em.

With the UFC fight odds being what they are for these upcoming bouts, the play might be to sit and wait to see how far the odds will move on the betting underdogs. As fight night nears, the analysis might be to focus on how much the odds change on the challengers and place a wager on the underdogs to score upsets in the upcoming UFC title fights.

Betting trends we’re watching this week

  • Along with McGregor vs. Holloway 2, the UFC also announced four other bouts for the UFC 329 main card. Blow are those fights and the current betting odds:
    • Paddy Pimblett (+150) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (-175)
    • Cory Sandhagen (-150) vs. Mario Bautista (+130)
    • Brandon Royval (+145) vs. Lone’er Kavanagh (-170)
    • Gable Steveson (-2100) vs. Elisha Ellison (+1100)

What could move odds before next UFC update

The fight to watch ahead of the next update is at the top of the Freedom 250 card. With the money on Ilia Topuria to retain his title against Justin Gaethje, expect the challenger to become an even bigger betting underdog. With that, the betting value is going to rest on finding the right time to get a wagers in on Gaethje. Waiting too long to place that wager could leave bettors with little value. However, not waiting long enough could make the risky underdog bet less lucrative should it pay off. Either way, while the UFC betting analysis says go with the underdog in that fight, don’t risk too much, because the chances of an upset are not all that great.

Previous UFC betting news updates

    • [May 2026] Betting favorites went 9-4 on the recent UFC Vegas 117 fight card.
    • [May 2026] Betting favorites went 8-5 on the recent UFC 328 fight card.
    • [May 2026] Betting favorites are 6-8 in UFC main events in 2026. The UFC 327 main event between Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg, which ended with Ulberg winning the vacant UFC light heavyweight title via TKO, closed with even odds, as did last week’s UFC Perth matchup between Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates, which ended with a Prates knockout win.
    • [May 2026] Debuting fighters went 2-2 on the UFC Vegas 117 card.
    • [April 2026] Betting favorites went 7-2 on the recent UFC 327 fight card. Two fights had even odds on fight night and one contest ended in a draw.
    • [March 2026] Betting favorites went 8-4 on the UFC 326 card.

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