Geno and the Giants: Odds Smith is a Future Star? They’re Low

You know what’s great about the NFL offseason? It’s just months upon months of speculation, yet it still dominates headlines as if it were breaking news. Based on reaction, you’d think when Ben McAdoo suggested Geno Smith “could be” the successor to Eli Manning, he had all but anointed the team’s next franchise quarterback.

Here’s a little hint for fans across the board: when your team brings on a new player, whomever that may be, they’re going to say positive things about him. No organization signs a guy, then when asked if he could one day start says, “No way in hell. Have you seen him play? He’s terrible. We just needed to fill a roster spot and knew this guy would aggravate our fans.”

As a Bears fan who was told Mark Sanchez was brought in for his “experience playing in big markets,” I understand how to polish a turd. So maybe riled up New Yorkers should peel back a bit on McAdoo’s comments and save that outrage for literally every other encounter during their day. For now, just enjoy the humor of the situation. I mean, twice now, the Giants have pilfered players from the garbage New York team, including the guy who couldn’t hack it on a Jets squad that drafted Christian Hackenberg. It’s pretty funny.

But in case any Giants fans are actually worried about Smith impacting the team, put your mind at ease. We’ve got the odds of that happening right here.

Geno Smith Odds 

Odds of Smith getting in another locker room fight: 7/1

The original Geno Smith incident reportedly took place over a debt, and this season Smith is earning the league minimum for a four-year pro. Perhaps he could find himself needing extra scratch again? But with his reputation as a crappy borrower preceding him, it’s unlikely anyone throws him a bone. If he’s going to get in a fight, it’ll have to come as a result of his personality.

But let’s assume for a minute that Smith does find himself in another locker-room dust up …

Odds which Giants player punches Smith first

  • Janoris Jenkins: 9/1
  • Brandon Marshall: 15/1
  • Jason Pierre-Paul: 18/1
  • Weston Richburg: 25/1
  • IK Enemkpali: 200/1
  • Eli Manning: 400/1

When it comes to tossing sucky-bombs, they’re supposed to come from unexpected places. But if we’re trying to pinpoint a likely source, Jenkins, Marshall, Pierre-Paul and Richburg have all shown they can come unhinged. Enemkpali isn’t even on the Giants roster, but they could always sign the disgruntled end if they want to release Smith, yet don’t have the courage to just cut him.

O/U how long will Geno Smith be with the Giants: Jan 1, 2018

Like it or not, Smith is a better backup option than Josh Johnson, Ryan Nassib, or anyone else the Giants have brought through the QB room lately. Unless they can draft a quarterback they’re comfortable with as a backup from day-one, then Smith is probably going to stay on the roster for his entire one-year deal.

O/U on how many Jet fans in the tri-state area laughed at the Smith signing: 1 million

A lot of that laughter quickly turned to tears when Jet fans realized that Smith is a better option under center than anyone currently on their own roster.

O/U snaps Smith plays in the 2017 regular season: 13.5

If Giants fans are really worried about having Smith on the sidelines, at least take solace in knowing he’ll never see the field. Manning has started 211 consecutive regular season games, so his backups only get action late in blowouts. This offense is not blowing anyone out next year, and the defense is too good to let the reverse happen.

Odds Smith starts the first Giants game after Manning leaves team/retires: 25/1

Even though Manning is on a pretty steady decline, he has a certain protection called “won two Super Bowls.” So his carcass will still be under center in 2019 in the final year of his contract. If the Giants haven’t found a better replacement than a 30-year-old Geno Smith by then, they will have earned a run as the laughing stock of New York.


Keith Allison (Geno Smith) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons.

Boris

Hockey may be a wildly unpopular sport in the U.S., but where no one is paying attention, there’s a ton of value for Boris to mine. An avid NHL fan of over 20 years, Malloy made his first bet against a friend during the 2001 Stanley Cup Finals (going against Ray Bourque) and has been hooked ever since. He has yet to pay off that debt of $2, but he’s made plenty back since. In between worrying about the league’s next lockout, he regularly contributes to MTS and is also fluent in football, basketball, baseball and French (sort of).