NFL Week 16 Predictions & Best Bets: Colts’ D strikes again

  • I got shutout, just like the Cowboys, in Week 15.
  • The bankroll has decreased to a little over $300 for the season.
  • I wish I had a Nick Foles to plug-in for Week 16’s best bets.

A second straight 0/3 week has me searching for terra firma. The Seahawks killed my three-team teaser with their OT loss in San Francisco; the Lions somehow let their fourth-quarter lead slip away in Buffalo; and KC chose the wrong time to end their nine-game win streak over the Chargers. C’est la vie.

It’s onto Week 16 and, luckily, the account is still well in the black thanks to all the early-season success.

Here’s the full accounting ahead of Week 16 …

  • “Locks of the Week” 2018 ROI: +$334.76 (based on $100 wagers)
  • Week 15 ROI: -$300.00

Find picks and predictions for every Week 16 game below, followed by the Locks of the Week at the very end. Remember, the Locks are the only games I recommend putting real money on. But if I go 0/3 again, I may be adjusting that advice ahead of Week 17.

Washington vs Tennessee Titans

Time & Date: 4:30 PM ET, Saturday, Dec. 22nd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Washington +10.0 (-110) +420 O 37.0 (-105)
Titans -10.0 (-110) -570 U 37.0 (-115)

Josh Johnson is getting another start for Washington (7-7, 4-3 away) after he “led” the team to a 16-13 upset in Jacksonville last weekend. The Titans (8-6, 5-1 home) are not blowing anyone out this year, and that will continue this weekend in a game that’ll be played in the teens.

Score Prediction: 17-10 Titans

Best Bet: Washington +10.0 (-110)

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Chargers

Time & Date: 8:20 PM ET, Saturday, Dec. 22nd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Ravens +4.5 (-105) +190 O 44.5 (-110)
Chargers -4.5 (-115) -235 U 44.5 (-110)

The Ravens (8-6, 3-4 away) are 4-1 under Lamar Jackson, but he hasn’t faced a defense like the Chargers (11-3, 5-2 home) yet. He’s actually faced five of the worst defenses the NFL has to offer: Cincinnati, Oakland, Atlanta, KC, and Tampa Bay.

This will be a rude awakening for the rookie, while LA does what it needs to do to keep pace with the Chiefs in the race for top spot in the AFC.

Score Prediction: 24-14 Chargers

Best Bet: Under 44.5 (-110)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 23rd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Buccaneers +7.0 (-110) +260 O 45.5 (-110)
Cowboys -7.0 (-110) -320 U 45.5 (-110)

Don’t overthink this one. The Buccaneers (5-9, 1-6 away) can’t win on the road, and the Cowboys (8-6, 6-1 home) are almost automatic at home. I’m not prepared to play a 7.5-point spread, but it’s prime fodder for a teaser. More on that below!

Score Prediction: 23-16 Cowboys

Best Bet: Cowboys’ moneyline (-320)

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 23rd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Bills +13.0 (-115) +650 O 45.0 (-110)
Patriots -13.0 (-105) -900 U 45.0 (-110)

The Bills (5-9, 2-5 away) were extremely unlucky not to cover when these teams met earlier this year, succumbing to two late touchdowns (25-6). That said, they have played five games against current playoff teams and they are 1-4,with three double-digit losses and a seven-point setback to Houston.


The Patriots’ (9-5, 6-0 home) offense is not what it used to be, but this team still has a 13.8-point average margin of victory at home. I’m not prepared to jump off the Tom Brady bandwagon just yet.

Score Prediction: 30-14 Patriots

Best Bet: Patriots -13.0 (-105)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Miami Dolphins

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 23rd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Jaguars +4.5 (-110) +195 O 39.5 (-110)
Dolphins -4.5 (-110) -245 U 39.5 (-110)

If the Jaguars (4-10, 1-5 away) hadn’t quit on the season before last week’s home loss to Washington, there’s a good chance they have now. The Dolphins’ (7-7, 6-1 home) near-perfect record at home is a bit of smoke and mirrors, but they are unquestionably better at Hard Rock Stadium. Ryan Tannehill will outduel Cody Kessler because even Josh Johnson can outduel Cody Kessler.

Score Prediction: 21-15 Dolphins

Best Bet: Dolphins -4.5 (-110)

New York Giants vs Indianapolis Colts

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 23rd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Giants +9.0 (-110) +375 O 47.0 (-105)
Colts -9.0 (-110) -500 U 47.0 (-115)

Even if the Giants (5-9, 3-4 away) get Odell Beckham Jr. back this week, it’s hard to see them scoring more than 14 points against the Colts (8-6, 5-2 home), who are coming off a shutout of Dallas and are giving up just 12.2 PPG in the last five.

Score Prediction: 24-13 Colts

Best Bet: Under 47.0 (-105)

Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 23rd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Texans +2.5 (-110) +115 O 46.0 (-110)
Eagles -2.5 (-110) -135 U 46.0 (-110)

Will the Nick Foles magic continue for the Eagles (7-7, 3-4 away)? Not a strong bet against the Texans (10-4, 5-2 home) and their 7th-ranked defense (per DVOA). Count on JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney being difference makers.


Score Prediction: 23-20 Texans

Best Bet: Texans +2.5 (-110)

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 23rd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Vikings -6.0 (-105) -250 O 43.5 (-110)
Lions +6.0 (-115) +200 U 43.5 (-110)

The post-John Defilippo era got off to a roaring start for the Vikings (7-6-1, 2-4-1 away), who waxed Miami 41-17 last Sunday. Now they get a reeling Lions (5-9, 3-4 home) team that has just one win — over the Cardinals — in the last four weeks. Detroit hasn’t scored more than 17 points in its last four. They were held to just 9 when they played in Minnesota earlier this year.

Score Prediction: 27-17 Vikings

Best Bet: Vikings -6.0 (-105)

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 23rd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Packers OFF OFF OFF
Jets OFF OFF OFF

This game between the Packers (5-8-1, 0-7 away) and Jets (4-10, 2-5 home) is off the board due to the unknown status of Aaron Rodgers.

Score Prediction: N/A

Best Bet: N/A

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 23rd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Bengals +9.0 (-115) +325 O 44.5 (-110)
Browns -9.0 (-105) -450 U 44.5 (-110)

The Bengals (6-8, 2-4 away) have shown surprising grit the last two weeks, playing the Chargers within a touchdown (26-21) and then routing the Raiders (30-16). This line has moved towards the Browns (6-7-1, 4-2-1 home) in part because of the beating they put on Cincy four weeks ago (35-20). But, in truth, there is not more than a touchdown difference between the squads, even with Jeff Driskel leading the Bengals. They are 22nd and 23rd in DVOA.


Score Prediction: 24-21 Browns

Best Bet: Bengals +9.0 (-115)

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 23rd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Falcons -3.5 (-105) -180 O 47.0 (-110)
Panthers +3.5 (-115) +160 U 47.0 (-110)

Cam Newton is not right, and that’s led to the Panthers (6-8, 5-2 home) losing six in a row. The Falcons (5-9, 1-5 away) looked much better with Deion Jones back last week, albeit against a horrible Arizona team. But they’ve still played better football lately, even though they’ve had nothing to play for.

Score Prediction: 27-21 Falcons

Best Bet: Falcons’ -3.5 (-105)

Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals

Time & Date: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 23rd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Rams -13.5 (-115) -1500 O 47.5 (-110)
Cardinals +13.5 (-105) +900 U 47.5 (-110)

What a great time for the reeling Rams (11-3, 6-1 home) to face the abominable Cardinals (3-11, 1-6 home). But laying 13.5 with this team on the road is way too many. They are just 5-7-2 ATS on the year and seriously banged up on offense.

Score Prediction: 28-17 Rams 

Best Bet: Cardinals +13.5 (-105)

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers

Time & Date: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 23rd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Bears -4.0 (-115) -210 O 42.5 (-110)
49ers +4.0 (-105) +175 U 42.5 (-110)

The 49ers (4-10, 4-3 home) proved to be a salty home team in last week’s gutsy 27-24 OT win over archrival Seattle. This is a bad spot for the Bears (10-4, 3-3 away), who just clinched the NFC North and have division rival Minnesota on tap in Week 17. A let down would be eminently understandable.

Score Prediction: 20-17 49ers

Best Bet: 49ers’ moneyline (+175)

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints

Time & Date: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 23rd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Steelers +6.0 (-120) +215 O 53.5 (-110)
Saints -6.0 (EVEN) -260 U 53.5 (-110)

The Steelers (8-5-1, 4-2-1 away) have played up and down to their competition all year, and that will continue against the Saints (12-2, 5-1 home), who are no longer the offensive juggernaut they were a couple months ago.


Score Prediction: 28-27 Saints

Best Bet: Steelers +6.0 (-120)

Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks

Time & Date: 8:20 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 23rd

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Chiefs -3.0 (EVEN) -135 O 53.0 (-110)
Seahawks +3.0 (-120) +115 U 53.0 (-110)

The Seahawks (8-6, 4-2 home) are getting a field goal at home? Even against the mighty Chiefs (11-3, 5-2 away), who are desperate to stay ahead of the Chargers in the AFC West, I’ll take that every day. Plus, the KC offense has not looked the same since the loss of Kareem Hunt, failing to hit 30 points in back-to-back home games.

Score Prediction: 30-27 Seahawks

Best Bet: Seahawks’ moneyline (+115)

Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders

Time & Date: 5:20 PM ET, Monday, Dec. 24th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Broncos -2.5 (-115) -140 O 44.5 (-110)
Raiders +2.5 (-105) +120 U 44.5 (-110)

The Broncos (6-8, 3-4 away) are now playing out the string after their Week 15 loss to Cleveland, something the Raiders (3-11, 2-5 home) had been doing since about Week 3. Oakland should have won in Denver in Week 2 and have actually looked half-decent in their past two home games. Denver is struggling to move the football without Emmanuel Sanders.

Score Prediction: 23-20 Raiders

Best Bet: Raiders’ moneyline (+120)

Locks of the Week

  1. Three-team, seven-point teaser at +120: Colts (-2.0), Vikings (+1.0), Cowboys (PK)
  2. Bengals +9.0 (-115)
  3. Giants vs Colts: Under 47.0 (-110)
AlexanderP

Alexander is the MTS editor-in-chief. Frank, Alex, and Geoff brought him in when they realized that their betting expertise far surpassed their grammatical abilities. He loves overanalyzing college basketball trends. Talking to him during the first weekend of March Madness is like talking to a wall. A very focused wall, but a wall nonetheless.