After taking some time off to allow PGA Tour players to compete at the 2020 Summer Olympics, PGA Tour action returns with the 2021 FedEx St. June Invitational. We were not 100% sure going into the tournament how the field would look – with some guys may opt for a weekend off after the Olympics. However, it seems like we are covering a full slate of players in our World Golf Championships – FedEx St. Jude Invitational Betting Preview.
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The golf betting odds to the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational give us a few great betting opportunities – especially since no one in the tournament has odds of less than +1200 to win the event. The event is happening at TPC Southwind (in Memphis, Tennessee) and runs from August 4 to August 7.
The one notable golfer not in the tournament is Jon Rahm – who remains out due to a positive Covid-19 test. Rahm currently sits in fourth on the FedEx Cup Standings – but will lose ground as the three players ahead of him are competing in the event.
Brooks Koepka at +1200 is the Best Bet to Win the Invitational
Brooks Koepka is the favourite entering the tournament – and rightfully deserving of it. Koepka has played TPC Southwind better than anyone over the last six years. Since 2015, Koepka has had four finishes in the top-three at the golf course – including a win at the event in 2019.
— Brooks Koepka (@BKoepka) August 2, 2021
Last year – while defending his title – Koepka opened the tournament shooting a 62 (one off the course record). His power helps him avoid the many hazards and bunkers on the course while also dealing with the challenging long par fours the course is known for.
Koepka, who did not play at the 2020 Summer Olympics – should be fresh and looking to close out the 2020-21 PGA season with at least one more win.
Patrick Cantlay at +2500 Could Move to First in the FedEx Standings
There are a couple of key stats going into this event that point towards Patrick Cantlay winning. The first is Greens in Regulation. TPC Southwind is a challenging course to get to the greens in regulation at 59% compared to 65% across the tour. Cantlay comes into the event as one of the best golfers at getting to the green in regulation at 69.36%. He is also eighth on the Tour in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green.
Cantlay’s played well the two times he has been at the St. Jude Invitational. He finished in 12th in 2019 – thanks to two rounds of 65. He had a strong finish in 2020 – shooting 65 and 67 to end the tournament at -3 (good for a 35th at the event). If Cantlay can build off his final two rounds from 2020 – and reach the greens as effectively as we think, he will be in contention to win the 2021 St. Jude Invitational.
A win would also help him take over the first spot in the FedEx Cup standings – currently led by Collin Morikawa (who is 122 points ahead of Cantlay).
Matthew Fitzpatrick at +3300 Has Played Great Here Before
Another guy we are looking at who has excellent driving accuracy and previously played well at TPC Southwind is Matthew Fitzpatrick. The Englishman ranks 17th in driving accuracy this season at 68.42% and is above average at recovering from the rough if his tee shot is not ideal.
5th top ten of the year on @PGATOUR! Pleased with the consistency but still a little disappointed not to have won yet… suppose it will come.
Saw some big improvements in my game last week and hopefully can take that into the US Open and put together a good one!! pic.twitter.com/4PgUCx4DFJ
— Matt Fitzpatrick (@MattFitz94) June 14, 2021
Fitzpatrick has played some of his best golf in his young PGA career at TPC Southwind. In two appearances at the St. Jude Invitational, he has a fourth and sixth-place finish. He has only one round of par or worse (a 70 in his first round in 2020). He also put up a 64 in 2019 and 2020. At +3300, Fitzpatrick is worth backing to pick up his first win on the PGA Tour.
Biggest Underdog to Bet: Sergio Garcia at +6600
If you are looking for the best value to win the 2021 St. Jude Invitational, we like Sergio Garcia. He is the tenth-ranked golfer in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and ranks third this year in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.
His average driving distance of all drives is 302.5 yards, ranking eighth. If he can play the ball well off the tee – he can position himself for great second shots, allowing him to avoid the many bunkers that make this a challenging course. We saw him do it during the first round of the 2020 tournament, shooting a 67 (good enough for a tie for ninth) and saw him do it in 2008 when he finished fourth overall.
He is worth taking a flyer on in 2021 – or at least consider betting on him to finish in the top-10 of the tournament.
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