- The Buffalo Bills (8-3) are 5.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots (6-5) in Week 13
- Josh Allen has 622 passing yards and eight touchdowns in consecutive wins over Bill Belichick’s club
- Thursday Night Football on Prime Video kicks off from Gillette Stadium on December 1 at 8:25pm ET
Buffalo and New England meet for the first time this year. Last season, the Bills took two of three matchups over their AFC East rivals, including a 47-17 annihilation on NFL Wild Card Weekend. Sean McDermott’s club is coming off a 28-25 victory over the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day while the Patriots fell to the Vikings 33-26.
Patriots vs Bills
|Spread||Money Line||Total Points|
|Buffalo Bills||-5.5 (-110)||-230||Ov 45 (-110)|
|New England Patriots||+5.5 (-110)||+190||Un 45 (-110)|
AFC East rivalry game
Bill Belichick’s football genius only goes so far. While the legendary coach orchestrated a 14-10 win over the Bills on a windy day in December last year, their AFC East rivals certainly had the last laugh. Sean McDermott’s club responded with a 33-21 victory three weeks later and a 47-17 blowout win in the Wild-Card round.
It’s the same story for New England this year. A 6-5 record is impressive on the surface. BUT, their wins have come against the Lions, Browns, Colts, Steelers and a Zach Wilson-led Jets squad. When matching up with playoff teams, they have lost to the Dolphins, Ravens and, most recently, Minnesota..
Bill Belichick was not thrilled when asked about the Hunter Henry catch 😬 pic.twitter.com/EYXxRduEPZ
— NBC Sports Boston's Patriots Coverage (@NBCSPatriots) November 25, 2022
Can Bill stop the Bills?
New England entered its Thanksgiving matchup rated No. 1 in pass defense by Football Outsiders after permitting the league’s fourth-fewest passing yards per game. However, after Kirk Cousins connected with Justin Jefferson nine times for 139 yards and a score in a 33-26 win, it’s fair to wonder if the Patriots can slow down Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs.
Diggs hauled in eight balls for 77 yards and a TD in Buffalo’s 28-25 triumph over the Lions last Thursday, including a 36-yard catch in the final seconds of regulation to set up a game-winning field goal. Perhaps the scariest thought for Belichick is he limited Diggs to just 60 yards in last year’s Wild Card game and still lost by 30 points.
Patriots vs Bills
Buffalo is favored by 5.5 points in Foxborough and the over-under is set at 45 points. Josh Allen has shredded the Pats defense in the last two matchups, passing for 622 yards and eight touchdowns with another 130 yards rushing. If that trend continues, hitting the OVER should not be a problem. But, even after giving up 33 points to the Vikings, New England’s defense still has top-ten per game marks in points allowed, passing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed.
Leslie Frazier’s D is even stingier when it comes to permitting points (18.1 vs 18.4 per game). But they have struggled over the past three weeks, allowing 33 to Minnesota, 23 to Cleveland and 25 to Detroit. Buffalo also lost future Hall-of-Famer Von Miller to a knee injury on Thanksgiving. And while cornerback Tre’Davious White returned in a limited capacity last week, the Bills’ pass defense still ranks in the lower half of the NFL.
With Mac Jones trending upward and both teams’ defenses on a downward trajectory of late, we love the OVER 45 unless high winds are swirling around Gillette Stadium. We also like Josh Allen and the Bills to take care of business against their AFC East foes.
Final Score Prediction: Buffalo 30, Patriots 20
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