- The Buffalo Bills are 5-point home favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals
- Joe Burrow is 13-2 against-the-spread in his career as an underdog of at least three points
- Sunday’s AFC Divisional Round matchup kicks off from Orchard Park, New York at 3:00pm ET on CBS
After barely escaping Wild Card weekend with narrow victories over division opponents, the Bengals and Bills will face off this Sunday in an emotionally-charged rematch of their cancelled Week 17 game. While both teams are on long, multi-game win streaks, they each share a fair number of question marks and concerns heading into the Divisional Round.
Bills vs Bengals
|Spread||Money Line||Total Points|
|Cincinnati Bengals||+5 (-110)||+200||Ov 48 (-115)|
|Buffalo Bills||-5 (-110)||-240||Un 48 (-105)|
Shaky wins on Wild Card weekend
Josh Allen turned the ball over three times (two interceptions and one fumble) in Buffalo’s 34-31 win over Miami. He’s now tossed 16 picks and lost six fumbles in 17 games this year. The Bills also finished the regular season with the third-most giveaways (27) in the NFL.
Cincinnati needed a 98-yard fumble return touchdown to survive the Ravens 24-17 on Sunday night. Baltimore held the Bengals to 4.3 yards per play and 234 yards of total offense in the game. While Joe Burrow should fare better against a non-division opponent, he’ll be playing behind a beat-up offensive line that has lost three starters in the past couple weeks.
Who’s the 2nd best QB in the NFL right now?
Joe Burrow or Josh Allen? pic.twitter.com/fHjlcKuFks
— Luke Sawhook 🪚🪝 (@lukesawhook) January 17, 2023
Riding long win streaks
Sunday will mark the sixth-ever playoff game between teams on 8+ game win streaks. Cincinnati has captured nine straight while Buffalo has won eight in a row. The Divisional Round game will be the first official head-to-head meeting between Josh Allen and Joe Burrow after their Week 17 matchup was cancelled following Damar Hamlin’s traumatic injury.
If the Bills are victorious, they’ll likely face the Chiefs in a neutral-site game in Atlanta while the Bengals would travel to Kansas City. Both Allen and Burrow have defeated Patrick Mahomes this season and each would love a shot to topple the soon-to-be two-time NFL MVP in the AFC Championship next Sunday.
Buffalo vs Cincinnati
Buffalo is a five-point favorite in Orchard Park and the over-under is set at 48 points. The Bengals have covered in eight straight games as an underdog, including the playoffs. However, Cincy’s beat-up offensive line needs to give Burrow enough time to connect with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins downfield. Meanwhile, the Bills are the only team to be favored in every game this year. They’re just 3-7-1 against the spread in their past 11 games.
Despite missing Hall of Fame pass rusher Von Miller for much of the season, Sean McDermott’s club allowed the second-fewest points per game (17.9) in the NFL. Lou Anarumo oversees a top-five unit (20.1 ppg) for Cincinnati and is known for his second-half adjustments after stifling Mahomes in the 2022 AFC Championship Game.
Every Divisional Round QB in the AFC is a top-10 pick and under 30 years old 😮
Patrick Mahomes 27 10th
Josh Allen 26 7th
Joe Burrow 26 1st
Trevor Lawrence 23 1st pic.twitter.com/urGutirT0j
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) January 18, 2023
Most analysts believe this game will come down to whether Buffalo can mitigate mistakes and whether the Bengals can protect their QB. While this game is sure to come down to the wire, we’ll take Joe Burrow over Josh Allen every day of the week.
Final Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Bills 26
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