Bengals Upset the Bills: NFL Divisional Round Picks

  • The Buffalo Bills are 5-point home favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals 
  • Joe Burrow is 13-2 against-the-spread in his career as an underdog of at least three points
  • Sunday’s AFC Divisional Round matchup kicks off from Orchard Park, New York at 3:00pm ET on CBS

After barely escaping Wild Card weekend with narrow victories over division opponents, the Bengals and Bills will face off this Sunday in an emotionally-charged rematch of their cancelled Week 17 game. While both teams are on long, multi-game win streaks, they each share a fair number of question marks and concerns heading into the Divisional Round.

Before we check the odds on this matchup between AFC juggernauts, here’s where you can find the best Super Bowl betting tips and the top betting sites for NFL football in 2023.

Bills vs Bengals

BetOnline ReviewSpreadMoney LineTotal Points
Cincinnati Bengals+5 (-110)+200Ov 48 (-115)
Buffalo Bills-5 (-110)-240Un 48 (-105)

Shaky wins on Wild Card weekend

Josh Allen turned the ball over three times (two interceptions and one fumble) in Buffalo’s 34-31 win over Miami. He’s now tossed 16 picks and lost six fumbles in 17 games this year. The Bills also finished the regular season with the third-most giveaways (27) in the NFL.

Cincinnati needed a 98-yard fumble return touchdown to survive the Ravens 24-17 on Sunday night. Baltimore held the Bengals to 4.3 yards per play and 234 yards of total offense in the game. While Joe Burrow should fare better against a non-division opponent, he’ll be playing behind a beat-up offensive line that has lost three starters in the past couple weeks.

Riding long win streaks

Sunday will mark the sixth-ever playoff game between teams on 8+ game win streaks. Cincinnati has captured nine straight while Buffalo has won eight in a row. The Divisional Round game will be the first official head-to-head meeting between Josh Allen and Joe Burrow after their Week 17 matchup was cancelled following Damar Hamlin’s traumatic injury.

If the Bills are victorious, they’ll likely face the Chiefs in a neutral-site game in Atlanta while the Bengals would travel to Kansas City. Both Allen and Burrow have defeated Patrick Mahomes this season and each would love a shot to topple the soon-to-be two-time NFL MVP in the AFC Championship next Sunday.

Buffalo BillsTo Cover Spread
★★★★★
-5
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Cincinnati BengalsTo Win
★★★★★
+200
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Buffalo vs Cincinnati

Buffalo is a five-point favorite in Orchard Park and the over-under is set at 48 points. The Bengals have covered in eight straight games as an underdog, including the playoffs. However, Cincy’s beat-up offensive line needs to give Burrow enough time to connect with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins downfield. Meanwhile, the Bills are the only team to be favored in every game this year. They’re just 3-7-1 against the spread in their past 11 games.

Despite missing Hall of Fame pass rusher Von Miller for much of the season, Sean McDermott’s club allowed the second-fewest points per game (17.9) in the NFL. Lou Anarumo oversees a top-five unit (20.1 ppg) for Cincinnati and is known for his second-half adjustments after stifling Mahomes in the 2022 AFC Championship Game.

Best Bet

Most analysts believe this game will come down to whether Buffalo can mitigate mistakes and whether the Bengals can protect their QB. While this game is sure to come down to the wire, we’ll take Joe Burrow over Josh Allen every day of the week.

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Bills 26 

Bills vs Bengals-110
★★★★★
OVER 48
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Steve Starr

Steve is one of the many Americans who spends Sunday watching football on the couch and gorging on heart-clogging eats. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.

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