Dee Friedman
As longtime readers of MTS will tell you, we like to do things early around here. When it comes to the NFL, each week we preview all the game action about ten days in advance. Why? Because, like any organism, we’re trying to carve out a niche! Last week, we gave you an early Week 10 preview. As promised, below is the update to that preview, incorporating up-to-date lines now that the Week 9 action has wrapped up.
Week 10 in the NFL kicks off with an AFC East battle between the Bills and Jets. The early Sunday games are devoid of a marquee contest, but the Vikings at Raiders, Giants at Pats, and Chiefs at Broncos are all solid late afternoon clashes, and Arizona at Seattle is a very attractive Sunday night game that will go a long way to deciding the NFC West.
The week wraps on Monday night with the Bengals playing their second of three straight Primetime games, this time hosting Houston.
Let’s look at the full slate.
Thursday
Buffalo (4-4) at New York Jets (5-3) – Spread: Jets -2.5
The 110th all-time meeting between Buffalo and New York is the first of two games this year with the squads also squaring off in Week 17 at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Buffalo holds a 58-51 mark and has won three straight. But this will be the first matchup since Bills coach Rex Ryan moved from the Jets franchise, which he guided for the last six years.
Buffalo begins a three-game trip with this game. The Bills are 2-1 on the road and 2-1 against the spread with a blowout victory in Miami, a one-point triumph at Tennessee, and a narrow loss to the Jags (in London). Buffalo will visit New England and Kansas City over the next couple of weeks. The Bills dominated the Dolphins for a second time on Sunday.
The Jets are 3-1 at home straight up and 2-2 against the number. They blew out the Browns and Redskins while falling to Philadelphia. The Jets handled Jacksonville 28-23 in New York last weekend, a victory in the record book but a loss for bettors.
Sunday
Miami (3-5) at Philadelphia (4-4) – Spread: Eagles -7
Dolphins offensive coordinator Bill Lazor came to Miami from Philadelphia and things aren’t going well so far. If Chip Kelly is still employed by the Eagles at the end of the season, Lazor may return whence he came.
The Fins will be on the road for a third straight week after getting blown out in New England and Buffalo. Miami won at Washington and Tennessee earlier in the year but lost on the road to Jacksonville, good for a 2-3 mark both SU and ATS so far.
The Eagles lost their home opener to Dallas, 20-10, but beat the Saints, 39-17, and Giants, 27-7. Philly has won three straight in this series and has not lost to the Dolphins at home since 1993. The Eagles beat the Cowboys in overtime on Sunday Night Football in their last outing (33-27).
Detroit (1-7) at Green Bay (6-2) – Spread: Packers -13
The Packers have won 24 straight home games against Detroit dating back to 1991. This season, Green Bay is 4-0 at home and 3-1 ATS, with ten-point wins over Seattle and Kansas City, a two-touchdown win over the Rams, and a tighter-than-it-sounds 27-20 win against the Chargers. Green Bay has dropped back-to-back road tests at Denver and Carolina, though.
The Lions are coming off of a bye but are 0-4 on the road (covering just once). This will be the first true road game for the Lions since Week 4’s 13-10 setback in Seattle. The Lions fell in London to Kansas City, 45-10, in Week 8.
Dallas (2-6) at Tampa Bay (3-5) – Spread: Bucs -1
The first of two straight on the road for the Cowboys, this could be their last game without QB Tony Romo. Dallas has played decently on the road this year, though they have just one win. They beat Philadelphia, 20-10, and lost at the Saints, 26-20, and Giants, 27-20. As mentioned above, Dallas fell to Philadelphia in overtime last weekend (33-27).
The Bucs are playing a second straight home game against an NFC East opponent after falling 32-18 to the Giants in Week 9. Tampa is 1-3 at home (straight up and against the spread) after going 0-8 SU last year.
Carolina (8-0) at Tennessee (2-6) – Spread: Panthers -4.5
Tennessee will be at home for the first time since dismissing coach Ken Whisenhunt. Though the Titans are 0-4 in Nashville, three of those have been tight (Indianapolis, Buffalo, and Atlanta). They also sport a lopsided loss to Miami on their home resume. With interim coach Mike Mullarkey on the sideline, and quarterback Marcus Mariota back from an injury, Tennessee won at New Orleans on Sunday (34-28 in OT).
The Panthers are 3-0 straight up and against the number on the road, but they haven’t played outside of Charlotte in a month; they won at Jacksonville, 20-9, Tampa Bay, 37-23, and Seattle, 27-23, before the long homestand. In Charlotte, they’ve taken care of the Eagles, Colts, and Packers.
Chicago (3-5) at St. Louis (4-4) – Spread: Rams -8
The Bears have a short week to prepare after beating the Chargers on Monday Night Football in Week 9. The win moved Chicago to 2-2 away from home and 3-1 ATS. They have won four of the last five in this series.
St. Louis has been excellent in three of four home games, destroying the Browns and 49ers, edging out Seattle, but losing a tight one to Pittsburgh. The Rams fell at Minnesota on a last second field goal on Sunday (21-18), dropping their ATS record to 4-4 on the year. But they’re a solid 3-1 against the number in Missouri.
New Orleans (4-5) at Washington (3-5) – Spread: Pick’Em
The Saints are on the road after splitting home games against the Giants and Titans in their last two. New Orleans is 1-3 outside the Superdome and 2-2 against the spread, winning at Indianapolis, 27-21, in their last road test.
After losing their home opener to Miami, Washington has been solid in DC, beating St. Louis, 24-10, Philly, 23-20, and Tampa Bay, 31-30. This matchup is sandwiched between two uber-tough games for the squad, which lost at New England in Week 9 and travels to Carolina in Week 11.
Cleveland (2-7) at Pittsburgh (5-4) – Spread: Steelers -4.5
This is the second straight divisional road game for the Browns, who lost at Cincinnati on Thursday in Week 9. The Browns have won just three of the last 23 meetings with Pittsburgh and have lost 11 straight at Heinz Field. They did manage a split with the Steelers last year, though. Cleveland is 1-4 on the road, losing to the Jets, Chargers, and Rams, and winning in Baltimore.
Pittsburgh is at home for a third straight week after falling to the Bengals in Week 8 and beating the Raiders in Week 9. The Steelers are without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger this week and have a bye next Sunday. Pittsburgh is 3-2 at home and 2-2-1 ATS.
Jacksonville (2-6) at Baltimore (2-6) – Spread: Ravens -5.5
After falling in New York against the Jets on Sunday (28-23), the Jags are back on the road. They get three home games in a fairly easy four-game stretch starting in Week 11. Jacksonville won its first four games in Baltimore but has now lost six straight dating back to 2000. The Jags are winless on the road but have covered twice in four games.
The Ravens are playing the second of three straight home games with a bye mixed in. Baltimore beat the Chargers, 29-26, in Week 8, had Week 9 off, and welcome the Rams in Week 11. The Ravens are 1-2 at home and 0-3 ATS.
Minnesota (6-2) at Oakland (4-4) – Spread: TBA – Teddy Bridgewater questionable
The Vikings, 2-2 on the road (3-1 ATS), are in the midst of a crazy schedule, facing possible playoff teams in six straight games. In the early part of the schedule, Minny lost at San Francisco, dropped a close game in Denver, and won at Detroit and Chicago. They also edged the Rams in OT on Sunday.
This will be the Raiders’ lone home game during a four week stretch. The resurgent squad is 2-2 in Oakland both SU and ATS, losing to the Bengals and Broncos while beating the Ravens and Jets. They lost a shootout in Pittsburgh (38-35) on Sunday.
Kansas City (3-5) at Denver (7-1) – Spread: Broncos -7
The 112th meeting between the Chiefs and Broncos could tie the all-time series; Kansas City has 56 wins to Denver’s 55. The Broncos have done well to even the series recently, winning seven straight against KC and 12 of the last 14 in Denver.
The Chiefs enter the game off of a bye, which followed a 45-10 victory over Detroit in London. But KC is 1-3 on the road straight up and against the spread with a victory over Houston and losses to Green Bay, Cincinnati, and Minnesota.
The Broncos dominated Green Bay at home in Week 8 to move to 3-0 at home and 2-1 against the number. (They have also beaten Baltimore, 19-13, and Minnesota, 23-20.) The Broncos suffered their first loss of the year at Indianapolis last weekend (27-24), watching a second-half comeback fall just short.
Arizona (6-2) at Seattle (4-4) – Spread: Seahawks -3
In a massive NFC West clash, the Cardinals head to Seattle off of a Week 9 bye. The team rallied for a 34-20 win in Cleveland in Week 8 to move to 3-1 on the road. (Arizona also won handily in Chicago and Detroit but fell in Pittsburgh.) This will be the first of back-to-back Primetime contests for the Cards, whose Week 11 tilt with Cincy was flexed to Sunday Night Football.
Seattle is returning from a week off, as well. The Seahawks are 2-1 at home and 1-2 against the spread, shutting out the Bears, 26-0, and beating the Lions, 13-10, but falling to Carolina, 27-23. The Seahawks have won two straight and four of five in this rivalry, but they currently trail the Cards by two games in the division race.
Monday
Houston (3-5) at Cincinnati (8-0) – Spread: Bengals -12
The Texans return from a bye sporting a 3-5 record and, yet, are right in the mix in the dreadful AFC South. Houston is 1-3 on the road SU and ATS with the lone victory coming at Jacksonville. Their other wins came at home over Tennessee and Tampa Bay.
The Bengals beat Cleveland, 31-10, on Thursday night in Week 9 to stay perfect. Four of Cincy’s eight wins have come at home, where the team is also undefeated ATS (3-0-1). The Bengals have already beaten the Chargers, 24-19, Chiefs, 36-21, and Seahawks (27-24 in comeback fashion) at Paul Brown Stadium.
(Photo credit: emeybee (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons.)
