NFL Divisional Playoff Odds – Expect the Unexpected?

“Expect the unexpected” is the early theme to the NFL postseason. Wild Card Weekend gave us the meltdown in Cincinnati and the shank in Minnesota.

The Steelers/Bengals game featured several brawls and had an uncomfortable feel, overall. It concluded with back-to-back personal fouls which allowed the Steelers to win the game on a last second chip-shot field goal. Meanwhile, the Vikings had their way with the Seahawks most of the day until Russell Wilson led an exciting fourth-quarter comeback. In the end, Minnesota still had an opportunity to win, but saw its own last-second chip-shot field goal sail wide left.

The drama and excitement leaves us wondering what can possibly happen next?

All four favorites (Green Bay closed -1) found a way to survive and advance through the madness of last week. This sets up a competitive divisional round featuring the best eight teams in football. There is no clear Super Bowl favorite and all of this week’s point spreads are a touchdown or less. This is a wide open field and anything can happen next.

The odds for each match-up are below but these wacky playoffs deserve more than just the usual lines. Let’s take a look at the likelihood of the unlikely continuing. Will there be another last-second field goal shank? Will Peyton Manning get benched? Will someone streak the field? It’s all covered, plus an updated glance at the coaching carousel!

NFL Divisional Playoff Odds:

Odds of winning in the Divisional Playoffs:

  • Kansas City (+5): 2/1
    New England: 11/25
  • Green Bay (+7): 5/2
    Arizona: 17/50
  • Seattle (+2.5): 23/20
    Carolina: 77/100
  • Pittsburgh (+6.5): 23/10
    Denver: 37/100

Or, in descending order:

  • Arizona: 17/50
  • Denver: 37/100
  • New England: 11/25
  • Carolina: 77/100
  • Seattle: 23/20
  • Kansas City: 2/1
  • Green Bay: 5/2

Odds a game is decided on a last-second field goal: 3/2

If there is a last-second, game-deciding field goal attempt, odds that it is …

  • made: 1/2
  • missed: 2/1

Odds a game goes to overtime: 4/1

Odds a game is played in the snow:

  • Pittsburgh at Denver: 7/1
  • Kansas City at New England: 8/1 (Rain: 3/2)
  • Seattle at Carolina: 100/1

Odds that Peyton Manning …

  • plays the full game: 1/2
  • gets pulled for poor performance: 3/1
  • exits due to injury: 10/1

Odds a Steelers coach gets a penalty for going on the field: 25/1

Odds a game erupts into a brawl:

  • Seattle/Carolina: 10/1
  • Pittsburgh/Denver: 12/1
  • Kansas City/New England: 15/1
  • Green Bay/Arizona: 18/1

Odds a fan streaks the field during a game:

  • Kansas City/New England: 40/1
  • Pittsburgh/Denver: 50/1
  • Seattle/Carolina: 80/1
  • Green Bay/Arizona: 100/1

Odds to be the next team to fire its coach:

  • Detroit Lions (Jim Caldwell): 3/7
  • Cincinnati Bengals (Marvin Lewis): 4/1
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (Gus Bradley): 19/1
  • San Diego Chargers (Mike McCoy): 30/1
  • Dallas Cowboys (Jason Garrett): 50/1

Odds to be the next team to hire its coach:

  • Philadelphia Eagles: 3/2
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7/3
  • Tennessee Titans: 20/1

(Photo credit: By Mike Morbeck [CC BY-SA 2.0 (], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)

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