Geoff Johnson
In the words of our (hopefully not) immortal Commander in Chief, the props for Super Bowl 52 are tremendous, just tremendous. Really great stuff. While Donald Trump is staying away from the pre-game festivities (or so our odds suggest), we’re diving head first into the best, and weirdest, props available for Patriots vs Eagles, making picks and hopefully finding some betting value along the way.
Bettors need to be aware: the odds/vig for the so-called novelty props are skew heavily in the sportsbooks’ favor, though there are (occasionally) some wonky lines you can get on the right side of.
These odds come courtesy of Bovada, the leader in exotic Super Bowl 52 props. [Want to learn more about Bovada’s sportsbook? Our review analyzes the entire site, from signup bonuses to customer service to mobile betting.]
How many times will Carson Wentz be mentioned during the broadcast?
- OVER 3.5: -160
- UNDER 3.5: +120
They’re gonna talk about Carson Wentz. He’s either going to be on the sideline, or he’s not. Both are worth a mention. The Eagles are either going to look good, or they’re not. Either way, Wentz will get a mention. If the game gets boring (ever seen a game between the New England Patriots and a lesser opponent?) they’ll have to vamp, and cut to either footage of Carson Wentz on the sideline, or talk about how the game might be different if Wentz was playing.
Betting tip: The OVER (3.5) for sure. Boring game.
Will a flea flicker be attempted in the game?
- YES: +350
- NO: -600
Flea flickers are 40% of the secret playbook Bill Belichick keeps locked away in a file marked “For Super Bowl Comebacks Only.”
There were also three flea flickers in the conference championships last weekend. Teams are coming to understand that flea flickers are great in high pressure situations, because it’s unlikely your opponent is expecting them. They create time and therefore space for receivers, and often lead to chunk plays.
Betting tip: YES (+350). Nobody loves a flea flicker like the Pats in a pressure situation.
What color Gatorade will be poured on the winning coach?
- Lime/green/yellow: +225
- Orange: +250
- Red: +300
- Clear/water: +400
- Blue: +700
- Purple: +1000
This one comes up a lot. There are four flavors of Gatorade available in the liquid concentrate form used to make large quantities: lime green, orange, red, and purple. If you include a jug of water, there are five reasonable options. You also have to consider that sometimes the head coach doesn’t get dunked at all, like last year. In that case, it’s a push.
The closest thing to value here is water at +400 or purple at +1000. Everybody hates purple, and that’s why it’s at +1000. Blue isn’t even available from Gatorade, and it has shorter odds. Definitely stay away from blue.
Betting tip: Water/clear (+400), the people’s champ.
How many times will Donald Trump Tweet on February 4th?
- OVER 5: -140
- UNDER 5: EVEN
Trump’s daily average is well over five now, and crept up on 10 at the end of last year. Weekends are typically where you see a lot of volume from the President, and on a big media day (like, say, the Super Bowl) he likes to get in the action and mix it up. Over 5 is the value.
There’s also a political connection between Brady and Trump, and Trump has made a tradition of tweeting at least once during the last two Super Bowls. The President already has a grudge against the halftime performer (Justin Timberlake), which should be good for one, at least.
Betting tip: OVER is the safer option.
Will Donald Trump be mentioned during broadcast?
- YES: +110
- NO: -150
I kind of like YES here, because it’s more likely that the game is a boring defensive struggle or boring Pats blowout than a barn-burner, and if the President calls a boring game a boring game, that’s something the commentator’s box can get 30 seconds out of, no problem.
Betting tip: If you can name a three-hour period of your life that has passed without Trump being mentioned, go ahead and take NO. I’ll take YES (+110).
Will anyone except Tom Brady or Nick Foles take a snap in the game?
- YES: +110
- NO: -150
A fun story: the 2008 Miami Dolphins used the Wildcat to torch the New England Patriots, in Foxborough, for a final score of 38-13. Another fun story: last year, the Patriots used a direct snap to James White to get a two-point conversion that the Falcons just could not stop.
All of this is a way of saying that you’re not just going off the odds someone gets injured or a backup comes in at the tail end of a rout; you’re also looking at the probability of some direct-snap trickery, which is somewhat common in the modern NFL. Who knew all the pre-snap motion stuff that college teams have been doing forever could work in the pros?
Betting tip: Never underestimate the Wildcat. YES (+110) all the way.
Will Tom Brady’s jersey be stolen again?
- YES: +1000
I wish I could get on the other side of this bet. I have faith in law enforcement and the Patriots organization’s ability to prevent this mistake from happening again.
Also: I’m not sure why Brady took off his jersey in the first place. They make those championship t-shirts super-big so they can be worn over pads.
Betting tip: Pick YES (+1000) if you plan on stealing the jersey yourself. If you’re not that light-fingered, stay away.
