AlexanderP
- Thursday Night Football sees the Eagles trying to rebound on the road on a short week against the division rival Giants.
- Will Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs continue to shock the world by beating the Patriots in New England?
- Get my three Locks of the Week and score predictions for all 15 games in Week 6.
After Week 5, my Locks of the Week are back in black, but not by much …
| Locks of the Week 2018 ROI: | $16.07 (based on $100 wagers) |
| Week 5 ROI: | $24.24 |
What could have been a 3-0 record was undone by the Eagles just not looking like the Eagles of old at home versus Minnesota.
Now Doug Pederson and company have to figure out some solutions quick as Philly visits the Giants on TNF to kickoff Week 6.
Do I dare go back to the Eagles’ well? Below, find predictions and best bets for every Week 6 game, followed by the Locks of the Week at the tail end. As always, the Locks of the Week are the only ones that I would recommend to a friend. As I say every week: quality over quantity is the key to successful NFL betting.
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
Time & Date: 8:20 PM ET, Thursday, Oct. 11th
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -3.0 (-115) | -165 | O 44.0 (-115) |
| Giants | +3.0 (-105) | +145 | U 44.0 (-105) |
You won’t find this one in the Locks of the Week and I’m not buying stock in Philadelphia right now. But I’m selling even harder on the Giants. They were thoroughly outplayed in Carolina last week, despite the final score (33-31) suggesting otherwise. They are deadlast in Pro Football Focus’ ELO ranking and Odell Beckham Jr and Saquon Barkley are being wasted due to a geriatric QB and gossamer offensive line.
Score Prediction: 23-17 Eagles
Best Bet: Eagles -3.0 (-115)
Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans
Despite a 2-3 record and the seventh-ranked defense (per DVOA), the Bills are still 32nd (i.e. last) in overall DVOA, a testament to just how brutal this offense is. The Texans, meanwhile, are showing signs of life. Two straight OT wins were closer than they should have been. Houston is moving the ball with ease but failing to convert in the red zone. That’s apt to normalize, and this game is apt to be a blowout, in the vein of Buffalo’s two road losses to date (47-3 at Baltimore; 22-0 at Green Bay).
Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Oct. 14th
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | +9.5 (-113) | OFF | O 40.5 (-110) |
| Texans | -9.5 (-107) | OFF | U 40.5 (-110) |
Score Prediction: 28-9 Texans
Best Bet: Texans -9.5 (-107)
Seattle Seahawks vs Oakland Raiders (London, England)
Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Oct. 14th
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | -3.0 (-105) | -150 | O 48.0 (-110) |
| Raiders | +3.0 (-115) | +`130 | U 48.0 (-110) |
Two teams with distinct home-field advantages are flying across the Atlantic for this one. Seattle’s biggest weakness is the O-line’s inability to protect Russell Wilson (18 sacks surrendered). Oakland has no semblance of a pass rush to take advantage of that, ranking deadlast in the NFL with six sacks. The Raiders aren’t any better against the run (127.2 YPG allowed at 4.9 YPC) which has become Seattle’s bread and butter.
The Seahawks are going to run it down Oakland’s throat and then hit a couple shots downfield, while the defense does enough against a mistake-prone Derek Carr (11 INTs). The Marshawn Lynch revenge factor won’t be a factor.
Score Prediction: 27-17 Seahawks
Best Bet: Seahawks -3.0 (-105)
Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins
Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Oct. 14th
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | -3.0 (-125) | -170 | O 42.0 (-110) |
| Dolphins | +3.0 (+105) | +150 | U 42.0 (-110) |
The Dolphins’ 3-0 start was a mirage. They’re 30th in total offense, 22nd in total defense, and getting unsustainable production on special teams. Against the three plus-.500 teams he’s faced this year (Titans, Patriots, Bengals) Ryan Tannehill has a 65.1 passer rating. The Bears’ top-ranked defense (per DVOA) is going to eat up Miami’s banged-up offensive line.
Miami’s strength on defense is against the pass. New England showed how the Dolphins’ undersized defensive line can be powered over (175 rushing yards at 4.4 YPC), and that’s exactly the type of game Chicago wants to play.
Score Prediction: 23-17 Bears
Best Bet: Bears -3.0 (-125)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Oct. 14th
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | +2.5 (-110) | +110 | O 53.0 (-110) |
| Bengals | -2.5 (-110) | -130 | U 53.0 (-110) |
The Bengals are not as good as their 4-1 record would suggest. The Steelers are 2-2-1 but actually ranked ahead of Cincinnati in DVOA (10th vs 11th).
The Steelers have also won six straight in the series. The road to the AFC North title still goes through PIttsburgh.
Score Prediction: 31-24 Steelers
Best Bet: Steelers’ moneyline (+110)
Indianapolis Colts vs New York Jets
Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Oct. 14th
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | +2.5 (-110) | +120 | O 45.0 (-110) |
| Jets | -2.5 (-110) | -140 | U 45.0 (-110) |
The Jets were able to obliterate the Broncos at home last week (34-16) because they controlled the line of scrimmage, piling up over 320 rushing yards. Amazingly, the Indianapolis defense is actually better than Denver’s. New York’s 29th-ranked offense won’t approach 30 points again. However, I still like this game to hit the OVER.
If there’s one thing I’m confident in, it’s Andrew Luck’s ability to put a few points on the board, regardless of what’s around him. No TY Hilton? No Jack Doyle? No worries, the Colts were able to put up 28 last week in New England and will score 20-plus again here.
Score Prediction: 27-26 Jets
Best Bet: Over 45.0 (-110)
Carolina Panthers vs Washington
Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Oct. 14th
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | +1.0 (-105) | EVEN | O 45.0 (-110) |
| Washington | -1.0 (-115) | -120 | U 45.0 (-110) |
The Panthers have hit 30 points in two straight, but both were at home. This is still a fairly limited, run-first offense that needs Cam Newton to be Superman to reach those lofty heights on the road. Washington’s offense is similarly limited, sitting 21st in yards per game and 24th in scoring (20.8 PPG). Expect a low-scoring affair.
Score Prediction: 23-20 Washington
Best Bet: Under 45.0 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals vs Minnesota Vikings
Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Oct. 14th
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | +10.5 (-115) | +375 | O 43.0 (-110) |
| Vikings | -10.5 (-105) | -550 | U 43.0 (-110) |
The Vikings aren’t blowing anyone out this year, not like last year, and the Arizona defense is plenty feisty, ranking 8th in DVOA and 11th in scoring (22.4 PPG). The offense has looked better with Josh Rosen under center, averaging 22.5 PPG in his two starts (though that includes a defensive TD) compared to 6.7 PPG in three games with Sam Bradford.
Score Prediction: 24-17 Vikings
Best Bet: Cardinals +10.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Chargers vs Cleveland Browns
Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Oct. 14th
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | -1.0 (-115) | OFF | O 44.5 (-110) |
| Browns | +1.0 (-105) | OFF | U 44.5 (-110) |
Winners of two of their last three, the Browns are not going away. Baker Mayfield is providing competent QB play for the first time in a decade, but the real reason they have staying power is their second-ranked defense. It’s holding opponents to 15.6 PPG at home, where the Browns are not-so-coincidentally undefeated (2-0-1).
Between Philip Rivers playing some of the best football of his storied career and Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler emerging as the best backfield duo in the AFC, the Charger offense is firing on all cylinders. But it’s still a question mark on the road: LA’s two road games to date were a 31-20 win over lowly Buffalo and a 35-23 loss to the juggernaut Rams. Strange as this may sound, I’ll take the proven commodity here, which is Cleveland at home.
Score Prediction: 27-23 Browns
Best Bet: Browns +1.0 (-105)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons
Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Oct. 14th
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | +3.5 (-115) | +155 | O 57.5 (-110) |
| Falcons | -3.5 (-105) | -175 | U 57.5 (-110) |
Neither of these teams can stop anyone. The rank last and second-last in scoring defense with Atlanta giving up 32.6 PPG and Tampa conceding 34.8 PPG.
Atlanta’s offense, particularly at home, has been borderline unstoppable (34.7 PPG). Tampa’s offense was prolific for a few weeks, but now turns to the fickle Jameis Winston. As little faith as I have in Winston, I have even less in the decimated Atlanta defense suddenly staunching the flow of points that has inundated Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
All signs point to the OVER.
Score Prediction: 35-28 Atlanta
Best Bet: Over 57.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos
Time & Date: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, Oct. 14th
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | -7.0 (-105) | -310 | O 52.5 (-110) |
| Broncos | +7.0 (-115) | +255 | U 52.5 (-110) |
The Vance Joseph era is going to be shortlived in Denver. A quick 2-0 start has given way to three straight losses and nothing is going right on either side of the ball. That’s a bad time to welcome the undefeated Rams to town, even if LA is banged up at receiver and the Broncos’ have a pronounced home-field advantage.
I don’t know if the Rams will cover the seven without their full complement of weapons on the outside — the defense has its holes — but I do feel supremely confident in Sean McVay leaving another tough road environment with a win, just like he did in Week 5 in Seattle (33-31).
Score Prediction: 28-23 Rams
Best Bet: Rams’ moneyline (-310)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys
Time & Date: 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, Oct. 14th
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | -3.0 (-105) | -150 | O 40.5 (-110) |
| Cowboys | +3.0 (-115) | +130 | U 40.5 (-110) |
Giving three points to a decent Dallas team at home is generous for a low-scoring bunch like the Jaguars. The Cowboys may not be able to move the ball through the air much — because they have the worst receiving corps in the NFL and the Jags have the best secondary — but Ezekiel Elliott will get some yardage on the ground while Dallas’ underrated defense gives Blake Bortles plenty of problems.
The absence of Leonard Fournette is starting to show in Jacksonville, with the team gaining just 101 yards on the ground last week against KC’s porous defense. Yes, they were playing catch-up and throwing it more than usual, but they’re also missing their bell-cow.
Score Prediction: 20-19 Cowboys
Best Bet: Cowboys +3.0 (-115)
Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans
Time & Date: 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, Oct. 14th
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | -3.0 (EVEN) | -150 | O 41.0 (-110) |
| Titans | +3.0 (-120) | +130 | U 41.0 (-110) |
The Titans’ 13-12 Week 5 loss to Buffalo is baffling, until you remember that this Tennessee team has long played up/down to its competition. The Ravens, meanwhile, were just held to nine points in almost five quarters in Cleveland. Joe Flacco is looking more like the Joe Flacco of 2017, and the Titans have the pieces on defense to make that continue.
Take the Titans, who are 2-0 at home with wins over Houston and Philadelphia, to win the game on the field.
Score Prediction: 20-17 Titans
Best Bet: Titans’ moneyline (+130)
Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots
Time & Date: 5:20 PM ET, Sunday, Oct. 14th
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | +3.5 (+110) | +160 | O 59.5 (-105) |
| Patriots | -3.5 (-130) | -180 | U 59.5 (-115) |
It’s the new kid on the block versus the old guard. While the New England defense has been markedly improved the last two weeks with Trey Flowers (and others) back, this KC offense just put up 424 total yards on Jacksonville.
The defense bled yards again (502 yards against vs JAX), which is hugely concerning, but it also generated a decent amount of pressure and caused enough chaos to hold the Jaguars to just 14 points. It doesn’t take much on defense for KC to win these days, and Andy Reid is one of the few coaches in the NFL who won’t be massively out-strategized by Bill Belichick. I love the value on the KC moneyline.
Score Prediction: 35-31 Chiefs
Best Bet: Chiefs’ moneyline (+160)
San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers
Time & Date: 5:15 PM ET, Monday, Oct. 15th
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | +9.5 (-110) | +350 | O 46.5 (-110) |
| Packers | -9.5 (-110) | -450 | U 46.5 (-110) |
The 49ers are going to be lucky to win more than one game with CJ Beathard at QB. The defense is still terrible, and now the offense has joined them in the lower rungs. That said, there’s something very wrong with this Green Bay team, and it starts with the coaching. The play calling and personnel decisions are baffling. (More Aaron Jones, please!).
Until those are resolved, I’m not taking any big spreads with the Packers, even if they feel like a lock to win.
Score Prediction: 24-16 Packers
Best Bet: Packers’ moneyline (-450)
Week 6 Locks
- Three-team parlay: Vikings (-550), Rams (-310), Packers (-450) at -110
- Colts vs Jets: OVER 45.0 (-110)
- Seahawks -3.0 (-105)
