- The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams play in Super Bowl 53 on Sunday (Feb. 3rd).
- There are hundreds of creative ways to bet on the game.
- These are our 10 favorite props on this year’s game.
More than just a game, the Super Bowl features A-list entertainment, lots going on in the city of Atlanta, and most importantly, creative ways to bet on the game.
No sporting event offers more types of bets than the Super Bowl. From the length of the national anthem, to who will score the first points, and whether the price of Bitcoin will go up or down during the game, if you want to bet on it, you can.
Prop bets, once more of a talking point than a serious way to wager, have come full circle. Sharp bettors pounce on prices the second they come out looking for the smallest advantages over the book, and sometimes make bets at multiple sportsbooks looking for middles.
We have scoured the full list of props to find 10 that are worth your consideration. If you read our Super Bowl preview, you will understand a few of these lean towards the Rams, since that is our prediction for the game itself.
Without further ado, our favorite props for Super Bowl 53.
Total Patriots first-quarter touchdowns: 0.5 O/U
The Bet at Bovada: Under 0.5 (+125)
The Pats are favorites in a game projected to have 56.5 points, so easy money on the over, right? Not so fast, New England has three total first-quarter points in their last eight Super Bowls. They will want to start this game the same way they started the last two: with time-consuming drives. We like the value on a slow start for New England, even if you like them to eventually get it going.
Will there be a missed extra point?
The Bet at Bovada: No (-350)
Read the fine print. This wager does not include two-point conversations. So will there be a missed kick following a TD? Greg Zuerlein is 40-41 (97.6%) on XP attempts this year, including playoffs; Stephen Gostkowski is 58-59 (98.3%). Neither one has missed an extra-point attempt indoors. The -350 odds on the “no” have a 78% implied probability. If the 98% combined success rate holds in the Super Bowl, there is an 85% chance that the two kickers go 6/6 on XPs, and an 83.3% chance they go 7/7.
We like no a lot. It is the definition of value.
Total rushing yards in the Game: 253.5 O/U
The Bet at Bovada: Over 253.5 (-125)
We think of the NFL as a passing league these days. However, in the Pats’ two playoff games this season, they have run for 155 and 176 yards. Meanwhile, the Rams use more 11 personnel than any team in the league. New England struggles against that alignment. This game has a decent chance to be less about the QBs and more about the ground game.
Longest rush of the game for Jared Goff: 6.5 yards O/U
The Bet at Bovada: Over 6.5 (-125)
Over the final five games of the regular season, when the Rams knew they were playoff bound, Goff got only eight total carries. He rushed six times in their first playoff game, and three in the NFC title game, managing a carry of more than 6.5 yards in each of them. Based on the season as a whole, this is the right O/U. We believe the magnitude of the game and too many weapons for the Pats to spy Goff will lead to at least one longer carry.
Number of receptions for Patriots RB James White: 6.5 O/U
The Bet at Bovada: Under 6.5 (+110)
We are getting better than even money on a bet that would have won in seven of 18 games this year. Sure, he had 15 grabs in the playoff win over the Chargers, but he only managed four against Kansas City. In 10 games since the end of October, White had more than six catches twice. He’s a weapon, but is not used as frequently as you may think.
Longest reception for Rams WR Josh Reynolds: 19.5 yards O/U
The Bet at Bovada: Over 19.5 (-120)
When we first saw this prop, the under seemed like a good under bet. Reynolds had just 29 grabs during the regular season, and five in two playoff games. However, Reynolds is getting more and more looks; he had four catches during the first month of the year, but has been targeted 54 times in the last eight games. He has a 20-yard catch (or longer) in four of his last five games. The defense never focuses on Reynolds, and that means he only needs to beat one-on-one coverage once to make this over a winner.
Will there be a safety scored?
The Bet at Bovada: Yes (+550)
Safeties have been scored seven times in 52 Super Bowls, or in 13% of games. That aligns pretty well with how often they are scored in all other games (about 14%). These odds are in line with those percentages, and this is a fun one to try to make a big score on. Also, if you think it will be a close game, the chances of an intentional safety towards the end go up. A small wager on this gives you four quarters of fun, just don’t bet it too big.
Total tackles for Aaron Donald: 4.5 O/U
The Bet at Bovada: Under 4.5 (-120)
There is an argument that Donald is the best player in this game. He is a star, but he is not a nose tackle or linebacker. He doesn’t get 10 tackles a game. He creates havoc for the quarterback. Donald has four tackles in two playoff games. In the last 11 games, Donald has more than four stops just twice. About 35% of Donald’s tackles are sacks. Unless you think he’s going to get to Tom Brady frequently, under 4.5 feels like a strong play.
Number of times broadcast mentions Sean McVay’s age: 1.5 O/U
The Bet at Bovada: Over 1.5 (-190)
There is no doubt his age (33) will be mentioned early on. So the question is whether it gets a second mention. His age is part of the storyline and, if the game is close late, it seems likely the two coaches will be compared. There could even be a graphic to discuss the old genius versus the new one. Plus, if the Rams win, McVay will become the youngest Super Bowl-winning coach in history, a record currently held by Mike Tomlin (36). How could that not come up?
Also, Jim Nance is calling the game and he loves storylines. Where is the alternative line for three or four mentions?
Will there be a penalty for roughing the passer?
The Bet at Bovada: No (+110)
A lot was made early in the season about rule changes that increased roughing the passer penalties. More recently, soft roughing the passer flags have been discussed, and that may lead to officials being careful in the Super Bowl. The bottom line is that they occurred 114 times this year, or in 45% of games. Last season, 105 roughing the passer calls were made. Getting positive juice on this bet puts it in the value category.