- With four weeks left in the NFL regular season four teams are clear Super Bowl favorites
- The LA Rams and New Orleans Saints are co-favorites to win it all
- Value is present on teams that are hot at the right time of year
We’ve hit the home stretch in the NFL regular season, and NFC powers New Orleans and Los Angeles remain as Super Bowl favorites. The top two squads in the AFC, Kansas City and New England, are receiving strong support too. If you like anybody else, the odds are intriguing.
While the four favorites (who are likely to receive byes) have been the best thus far and have been the chalk for much of the season, the last couple weeks have raised the question about whether they were great early, and are coming back to the pack now. Meanwhile, Dallas, Seattle, Houston, Denver and Baltimore are hot.
Let’s examine updated prices and look for betting opportunities. The odds below are from BetOnline.
Odds to Win Super Bowl 53
|Team||Odds to Win Super Bowl 53 from BetOnline|
|Los Angeles Rams||+350|
|New Orleans Saints||+350|
|New England Patriots||+500|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+600|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+1200|
|Green Bay Packers||+25000|
|New York Giants||+25000|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+25000|
NFC Heavyweights: Rams and Saints
Since early in the year Los Angeles and New Orleans have been the betting favorites. With high powered offenses, creative coaches, and MVP candidates on board, what’s not to like?
The Rams only loss came at New Orleans, but LA is a game clear of the Saints and therefore control their own destiny to be the NFC’s top seed. If they get by the Bears this week, and Philly next Sunday, Los Angeles should not have difficulty with Arizona or San Francisco the last two weeks of the year. That said, despite winning in lopsided fashion five times in the season’s first seven weeks, recent games have been tighter, and the defense continues to yield close to 30 points each week. How long can the Rams streak of success last?
As for the Saints, they had won 10 straight before abruptly falling to Dallas 13-10 last week. What happened? They have played some tight road games this year (overtime win over Atlanta, one point victory at Baltimore). Their next two games are away from the Dome. If they don’t earn home field advantage throughout the playoffs, could they run into a problem?
AFC Powerhouses: Chiefs and Patriots
Since early in the year Kansas City has been the AFC favorite. Patrick Mahomes is having an MVP-type season, and the offense leads the NFL in scoring. That said, the Chargers are just one game back, so any slip-up could lead to losing the division. The last two weeks for the Chiefs have included a loss, and tight win over mediocre Oakland.
The Patriots are doing what they typically do. Getting stronger as the year moves along. They are going to win the AFC East, but a bye is no lock. While New England has won eight of nine, they aren’t dominating most opponents. That said, bet against Brady and Belichick at your own peril.
The Chargers are the fifth choice, but 12/1 is a square price. Some numbers crunchers see them as no different than New England. They can still catch Kansas City in the AFC West, and last weeks win at Pittsburgh was impressive.
If you are looking for an AFC price, what about Denver? Because Pittsburgh and Baltimore have difficult slates down the stretch, a team currently at 6-6 has a decent shot to make the bracket. The Broncos have won three straight and face the Niners, Browns and Raiders over the next three weeks. It feels likely that they will be 9-7 and host a Chargers team they’ve already beat once this year.
In the NFC, though Minnesota and Philadelphia faced off in the Championship Game last year and are both still very much alive, neither has the look. Meanwhile Seattle has run off three straight wins, has the fourth highest point differential in the conference, and should beat Arizona and San Francisco over the final month. That puts them at 9-5 with home games remaining against Minnesota and Kansas City. Nine wins might be good enough and 10 almost certainly is. If they get in, nobody wants to face Russell Wilson.