Kalshi Funding And Promoting Florida Governor Hopeful

Ron DeSantis will be departing as Florida governor early next year. He’s hit his term limits and is not eligible to run in the 2026 governor race.

His exit is notable for the legal sports betting industry. It’s he who signed a 30-year compact with Hard Rock to be its sole partner in Florida sports betting. Hard Rock is owned by the Seminole tribe based out of the state, and no other sports betting app is allowed aside from them.

Not only did he bring sports betting to the state, but he’s also been non-committal about the rise of prediction markets. Platforms like Kalshi openly work in the Sunshine State, and some say that’s undercutting the compact with Hard Rock.

“The question is: Is something like Kalshi, is that clashing with the laws of the state of Florida? Or is it separate?” said DeSantis earlier this year. “So we’re kind of trying to get our mind around that.”

So DeSantis raised the question, but he hasn’t been openly hostile toward the industry either. Maybe that’s out of genuine curiosity, or maybe he’s toeing the party line — the Trump administration has strongly embraced the new industry — but either way, he’s let Kalshi and other markets operate freely.

Well, Kalshi wants it to stay that way when a new governor enters the fold in 2027. The Florida governor race is down to two — Byron Donalds (Republican) and David Jolly (Democrat). You may think Florida is a red state and Donalds has the race won already, but Jolly is a former Republican and is on the moderate side of things. It’s shaping up to be a close race with a lot of time left.

Kalshi has a vested interest in who wins, and perhaps controversially so. Keep reading, and we’ll tell you who they’re backing to win in Florida.

Kalshi Wants Donalds To Win

Byron Donalds is Kalshi’s preferred pick. And we’re not talking just that he’s the odds-on favorite to win in an event contract on the site (he is), but they literally want him to win.

Get this, Kalshi has donated $25,000 to Donalds’ political committee. That makes a recent post from the company a little more interesting. After Donalds’ odds to win the Republican primary hit 95 percent, Kalshi blasted out on its social account that he had reached a “NEW ALL-TIME HIGH.”

Donalds certainly didn’t mind the publicity. He reposted Kalshi’s announcement on X with a simple “wow.” If you think it’s weird that Kalshi is simultaneously funding the guy and promoting him on social, then you’re not alone. Donald’s team, though, has deflected the worries.

“The post was simply stating reality — that Byron Donalds is dominating the primary field on his way to winning the general election in November,” Donalds communications director Gates McGavick told the Miami Herald.

Kalshi says there’s nothing nefarious going on either. Spokesperson Dani Lever said the company posts about all candidates when their odds move, including Donalds’ Republican opponents James Fishback and Jay Collins.

Still, you can see where things get a little murky, right? Kalshi isn’t just hosting a market where people wager on who becomes Florida governor. The company itself has financially backed one of the people in that market. That creates a conflict of interest, no?

“People could be betting on the very political race that they themselves have made a huge wager on, in terms of their own investment,” said Michael Beckel of Issue One. “That’s not information that most bettors on prediction markets like Kalshi may even have access to or know about.”

Donalds Isn’t Kalshi’s Only Florida Investment

To be fair to Kalshi, Donalds isn’t the only Florida candidate they’re backing. Kalshi has been spreading money around Florida politics far and wide — not just on the governorship.

Attorney General James Uthmeier’s political committee received $50,000 from the company, while his campaign got another $3,000. Kalshi also gave $25,000 apiece to Florida’s Republican House and Senate campaign committees, plus another $25,000 to a committee run by House Speaker Danny Perez and $5,000 to one tied to future Speaker Mike Redondo.

That’s a lot of checks going to people with influence over Florida policy. Beckel put it pretty bluntly, saying prediction markets are looking for “friends in high places” at a time when their regulatory future is still being decided in Florida, and across the country.

Kalshi Is Spending Outside Florida Too

Don’t mistake all this spending for Kalshi suddenly becoming some Republican super PAC, though. The company is putting money into races outside Florida — and on both sides of the political aisle.

Take California, for example. Kalshi has donated roughly $40,000 to Democrat Xavier Becerra’s campaign for governor. And wouldn’t you know it, Becerra is also leading Kalshi’s prediction market on who will win that contest.

California is an especially interesting place for Kalshi to start making political friends. Like Florida, it’s a huge gambling market where prediction markets are rubbing up against powerful tribal gaming interests and lawmakers trying to decide whether that’s fair game or not (the state of California hasn’t launched a lawsuit, but the tribes have).

So again, to be fair to Kalshi, they’re not trying to just buy up Republican support. No, no, it’s a bipartisan effort so far. Smart, right? With prediction markets fighting for their place in state after state, having allies in governors’ mansions and statehouses sure doesn’t hurt.