by
NFL betting is back, which means it’s prime time for everyone. Not just the coaches or players, but for the entire legal sports betting industry, including the operators.
This is the time of year you see sports betting apps launch their most splashy marketing campaigns, usually with famous celebrities. Hard Rock Bet, which is the only app legally allowed in Florida’s betting market, is certainly playing along.
But… there’s new data out on the top-downloaded betting products. Hard Rock is on the list, but maybe not as high as you’d expect. Let’s dig into the data and see where Hard Rock is trending.
App Download Data Shows Who’s Winning Attention Game
We won’t have official numbers out of legal betting states for some time. Most states report revenue figures with a month or two lag. So it’s hard to say which platforms are off to a big start with the return of NCAAF and NFL.
But… we do have download numbers from app stores in the United States and Canada. There was 3 million downloads in and around week 1 of the NFL season. Here’s who got the most downloads:
1. Polymarket — 762,000
2. Kalshi — 592,000
3. DraftKings — 415,000
4. FanDuel — 265,000
5. Sleeper — 239,000
6. bet365 — 104,000
7. Hard Rock — 97,000
8. PrizePicks — 94,000
9. Fanatics — 81,000
10. BetMGM — 64,000
11. Underdog — 47,000
12. Caesars — 40,000
13. Betr — 36,000
14. Rebet — 36,000
15. Novig — 28,000
16. BetRivers — 28,000
17. theScore — 26,000
18. Bally Bet — 22,000
We don’t know about you, but these numbers are startling to us. We have two prediction markets — Kalshi and Polymarket — combining for 45 percent of all downloads this week. This is staggering, but not as staggering as the next figure.
Kalshi reported gangbusters numbers on Sunday, when most NFL games were played. They said they did $2.46 billion in trading volume — a new single-day record on the platform.
What’s more, the success of Kalshi and Polymarket is being done at the behest of FanDuel and DraftKings — the top-two “traditional” sports betting apps across the country. Year over year, FanDuel downloads are down 36 percent. DraftKings is somehow worse with a 46 percent drop.
As you can see, Hard Rock is in seventh. It’s an ok number, but pales in comparison to the top-5. Though, they can hang their hat on beating out the likes of BetMGM or Fanatics — two well-financed sportsbooks who are closer competitors to them than DraftKings and FanDuel.
Prediction markets aren’t just winning on downloads and money. More importantly, they’re winning the attention game, too.
Prediction Market Ads Take Over The Internet
Maybe you’ve heard, or shall we say, seen Sydney Sweeney barring all in a series of new ads. The famed actress is posing semi-nude with only sports objects covering her you know what. Well, it’s all over the internet and has people talking, including left-leaning political pundits bashing the whole marketing campaign for sexualizing women athletes.
Either way, it’s got people talking about Sweeny and the product she’s promoting. No, not a new season of Euphoria. No, not a new movie. But a little-known prediction market called Novig. You can see Novig on the download rankings toward the top. As this campaign goes more and more viral, we fully expect their downloads to shoot up toward the top.
This ad comes on the heels of LeBron James becoming the face of Polymarket. That too sparked backlash from some thinking LeBron was above “betting” ads.
He’s not. No one is when these prediction markets are spending like crazy to grow. But still, nabbing one of the most famous active athletes in the world is a small accomplishment for Polymarket.
Those two ads have gotten the most buzz, and again, that’s a feels like another win for prediction markets. And it’s not like the other traditional sportsbooks aren’t trying, including Hard Rock.
Hard Rock Marketing Campaign Feels Old — And Maybe That’s The Point
So what did Hard Rock counter against Sweeny’s ta-tas? Welp, they trotted out a bunch of Miami sports legends.
Hard Rock is calling this their “After Dark” campaign. It features this rag-tag collection of celebrities and athletes — rapper Fat Joe, University or Miami legendsMichael Irvin and Jimmy Johnson, golfer John Daly, and basketballera Udonis Haslem (Miami Heat) and Joakim Noah (Florida Gators).
Who Hard Rock picked to front their ads sort of makes sense. As the only legal sportsbook product in Florida, the state is their golden-goose market. Pretty much all these frontmen have ties to the state.
But… we can’t help but feel Hard Rock played it safe. It’s not like its product is only offered in the Sunshine State. Not even close. Hard Rock Bet is live in nine other states like Arizona, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and more.
Let’s be real, do you think this Florida-based ad will resonate as much over there? We love Irvin and Jimmy as much as the next guys but no way this can compete with LeBron or an almost-naked Sweeney.
And the early app download and volume numbers seem to prove it so far, don’t they?
Online betting sites 