Oklahoma Tribe Quickly Distances Itself From Kalshi

Kalshi dropped a bomb on tribal gaming when it announced four more Native American tribes as partners for prediction markets. The announcement came on October 7 and named the following tribes:

• The Alabama-Quassarte Tribal Town (Oklahoma) — PokkeTrades
• The Greenville Rancheria (California) — Greenville
• Kletsel Dehe Wintun Nation (California) — Sovereign Edge
• Alturas Indian Rancheria — (California)

This was a shock to tribal groups up and down the country, many of whom are in bitter fights with the likes of Kalshi, many of which include court cases. It felt like a downright betrayal.

Which it’s perhaps no surprise that one tribe has denied the partnership to begin with. They say it was a false announcement, but read the tea leaves, and it might’ve been pressure to back out. Keep reading and we’ll explain the puzzling case of the Alabama-Quassarte Tribal Town.

Alabama-Quassarte Says There Was Never A Kalshi Deal

A mere six days after Kalshi announced the partnership, Alabama-Quassarte Tribal Town Chief Samuel Marshall Jr. came out and denied it. Seriously, here’s the quote:

“Any suggestion or assertion that the tribe had entered into an agreement with Kalshi or any other prediction market operator was false,” Marshall said.

Not even a “we changed our mind.” It was a straight denial. Then on top of that, they threw some dirt on Kalshi, saying they undermine the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) and Oklahoma tribal compacts by allowing what he called illegal Class III gaming to compete with tribes.

Many other tribes have evoked the IGRA in its fight with Kalshi, too. For those not in the know, it’s a federal law dating back to 1988. It gives tribes federal rights to run casinos on their land and creates three categories for betting. Class III, which was called out by Marshall Jr., is where sports betting falls under. Tribes are allowed this, but it requires a compact with the state — which Kalshi certainly doesn’t have.

It’s a stunning turn of events (in six days only!), one that’s magnified by the original press release. In it, Kalshi quoted Wilson Yargee, the Oklahoma tribe’s chief. That raises some eyebrows, which we’ll get into in the next section.

Was This Really A Mistake?

Should we believe this was a mistake, as the chief mentioned? Our gut feeling is this press release was way too specific to be completely made up.

Kalshi didn’t just put Alabama-Quassarte on the press release. It also announced an actual app called PokkeTrades in conjunction with it. They said the tribe would own it. They explained how the business would work. They even quoted chief Wilson Yargee saying the following:

“Geography has kept many tribes from sharing in the prosperity that gaming created… prediction markets offer an opportunity to reach beyond those limits and build revenue for our people. We will respect every other tribe’s authority on its land, and we expect the same respect for our authority to make this decision.”

That’s not all, though. Michael Stopp, citizen of the Cherokee Nation and VP of Economic Development, Alabama-Quassarte Tribal Town, was also quoted in the release:

“Prediction markets are part of the economic future, and tribes left out of lucrative gaming markets deserve a chance to participate… these markets offer tribes a chance to participate in an emerging industry, especially those whose geography has limited revenue generation. Respect for tribal sovereignty means respecting each nation’s right to evaluate that opportunity and decide what best serves its citizens. Sovereignty cannot mean protecting opportunity for the haves while closing the door on the have-nots.”

Two quotes, that’s almost too specific to be made up out of thin air, don’t ya think? We certainly think so.

Which leaves us with a more realistic possibility: the backlash got so bad for the tribe that they had to back out and deny, deny, and deny some more.

Tribes Are Branding Together Against Kalshi

Here’s another reason we think the tribes backed out: they are being seen as black sheep for working with a prediction market.

Zoom out away from Oklahoma’s own betting market — which allows only casino betting, not sports betting apps. On the national level, tribes are in teaming up to go after Kalshi. In fact, 130 federally recognized tribes and 15 tribal organizations just filed a brief asking the Supreme Court to take up New Jersey’s case against Kalshi.

Their worry is pretty straightforward. If Kalshi can offer sports contracts nationwide under federal commodities law, what happens to all those state gambling laws and tribal gaming compacts? Tribes spent decades negotiating for gaming rights, building casinos, paying exclusivity fees, and operating under IGRA. All that just for Kalshi to get the same exact rights without any of that effort.

You can see why that doesn’t sit well with tribes, right?

For now, Kalshi and other prediction markets are leaning on their own federal approval (by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission) to keep their operations in check statewide. Whether that holds priority over the tribe’s own federal laws is the question here — one that might need to be settled by the Supreme Court. That’s where all signs point that this is headed to.