Anti-Sports Betting Politician In Texas Down In Polls

We’re weeks away from midterms. It’s very much the final push. This is when we see political ads hitting overdrive. In the same token, everyone has a poll to predict this or that outcome.

Texas is a key battleground state. It’s usually a “red” state with conservatives cleaning up the ballots. 2026 is proving to be less of a guarantee, however.

For one, there is James Talarico. He’s one of the Democrats brightest new stars and he’s in a dead heat with Ken Paxton for senate in Texas.

This rise of Democrats (or fall in Republicans) is also trickling into the lieutenant governor race between incumbent Dan Patrick (Republican) and Vikki Goodwin (Democrat). And this race has special meaning for legal sports betting advocates. Keep reading and we’ll explain the latest polls, and possible ramifications.

Patrick Trails In Newest Poll

We said polls were everywhere, don’t we? One coming out of the University of Texas at Austin caught our attention. In it, Goodwin is currently leading Patrick 49 to 46 percent.

It’s a little startling cause of Patrick’s pedigree. He’s held the role for three terms and is deeply, deeply entrenched into the state’s right-wing politics.

At the same time, that’s just one poll result — the majority of other polls still have him ahead. Plus, the lead in UT poll is within the margin of error, and neither candidate reached 50 percent. So yeah, we wouldn’t take those poll results to the bank.

Especially when Kalshi still has Patrick as the clear-cut favorite. As of October 15, traders on the prediction market gave Patrick roughly a 73% chance of winning. So for all the excitement this new poll might create among people who want him gone, the money still favors him sticking around.

There’s another result worth mentioning from the same survey: Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Governor Greg Abbott 49 to 48 percent. Again, a tiny lead (with the margin of error), and again, just one poll.

Republicans haven’t lost a statewide Texas election since 1994, mind you. Even having to fight this hard to keep these offices would be a change for the red party, though. But a welcome change for Texas sports betting hopefuls, as we’ll get into next.

Patrick Has Been A Nightmare For Betting Supporters

Those hoping to legalize sports betting in Texas have a very obvious rooting interest in the lieutenant governor gig. The reasons are obvious: Patrick is the person most responsible for keeping legalized betting out of the Lone Star State.

Where do we even start with Patrick? His role essentially makes him the de facto leader of the Texas Senate. A powerful position, one he’s used to keep betting proposal after proposal off the Senate floor.

We actually saw how much that matters in 2023. The Texas House passed a sports betting constitutional amendment with 101 votes, clearing the two-thirds requirement needed in that chamber to send it toward a statewide referendum. All gravy, until Patrick refused to take it up in the Senate.

By 2025, Patrick’s position hadn’t budged one bit. Rep. Sam Harless filed another sports betting proposal, and Sen. Juan “Chuy” Hinojosa introduced its companion, SJR 65. That Senate measure went to committee in March, but never made it out.

During this same legislative year, casino advocates got absolutely nowhere. This despite the Las Vegas Sands — the new owners of the Dallas Mavericks — spending millions on lobbying and elections. Apparently, there are some things even casino money can’t buy in Texas.

More recently, Patrick has turned his attention to prediction markets. In March, he instructed senators to examine the “gambling loopholes” allowing those platforms to operate in the state. There’s some irony for you — Kalshi traders are backing Patrick to win while he’s exploring ways to restrict their industry. For anyone hoping he was warming up to betting, that move threw cold water on that.

A fourth term would leave Patrick overseeing the Senate during the 2027 and 2029 legislative sessions. Texas only holds those sessions every other year (not yearly like most other states). Unless Patrick magically changes his tune, that means any realistic chances of legalized betting in Texas would have to wait until 2031 at the earliest.

No, Patrick isn’t the only Republican standing against legalization, but he’s perhaps the most influential against it. As long as he’s around, betting initiatives likely die a painful death inside the state.

Goodwin Would At Least Let Texans Have Their Say

If Goodwin pulls off the massive upset against Patrick, then legal betting chances shoot straight up.

She’s publicly backed letting Texans vote on casinos and sports betting. In a September 2025 interview with FOX 7 Austin, she framed the issue around personal freedom and personal responsibility — very Texan of her, eh?

That would be a complete 180 from watching proposals die without even a Senate vote or discussion. But Goodwin couldn’t legalize betting by herself, either. Supporters would still need two-thirds of both legislative chambers to approve a constitutional amendment, followed by approval from Texas voters. Those Republican lawmakers opposed to gambling don’t all disappear just because Patrick loses his job.

Still, there’s a difference between having to win over lawmakers and having the person running the Senate refuse to take up your proposal altogether. Goodwin offers betting supporters a glimmer of hope that, frankly, has never existed in the state.