2018 NASCAR Monster Energy Playoff Odds: Is Brad Keselowski Underrated?

  • With the Playoffs starting this weekend, who are the favorites to win the season title?
  • Will Kevin Harvick’s dominance at Homestead continue?
  • Can Martin Truex return to form at 1.5 mile tracks?

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series 2018 Playoff started last weekend at the South Point 400. Brad Keselowski won the first leg at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but still has not topped the odds sheet to win the finale.

The next round, at Richmond Raceway, will run this Saturday.

2018 NASCAR Monster Energy Series Championship Odds

From MyBookie, as of 9/20/2018

Driver Odds to Win Championship
Kevin Harvick +300
Kyle Busch +350
Martin Truex Jr +400
Brad Keselowski +500
Kyle Larson +600

Kevin Harvick is a Worthy Favorite

It’s no surprise to see Kevin Harvick as the favorite, given his 2018 haul of wins and historic success on intermediate tracks.

It also doesn’t hurt that the series finale will take place at Homestead, where Harvick has the lowest average finishing position of anyone in the field. Anyone in recent history, if you exclude Brendan Gaughan. You should exclude Brendan Gaughan.

Does Brad Keselowski Offer Value?

If you like a driver with a hot hand, look no further than Brad Keselowski. He’s won each of his last three races, and has five wins at Talladega. He’s got the best finals pedigree of any driver by far, as he’s the only driver on the grid to admit intoxication during a post-championship interview.

The Field

Following Harvick on the odds sheet is Kyle Busch, the #2 in points, wins, and top fives. Busch will be hard to beat in Richmond, where he boasts five wins and an average finish of 7.2 in 26 starts.

He struggled a little in Las Vegas, finishing seventh, but didn’t need even that to clinch the Round of 16.

Martin Truex Jr returns to the Playoffs as the defending champion but without some of the shine that he had last year. He hasn’t had quite the same success as he did last year, particularly not on 1.5 mile tracks, and while he’s amassed a lot of top five finishes (and a third in Las Vegas) he’s doesn’t carry the same air of invincibility.

He absolutely should not be counted out, but going against Harvick and Busch at Homestead will be a tall order for Truex in 2018.

Geoff Johnson

MTS co-founder Geoff Johnson is a lifelong Mets fan, something he can't do anything about. He has a great track record when it comes to wagering on baseball – largely because he's more than willing to bet against the Mets. His career profits are impressive, but not quite as good as his handsome friend Frank Lorenzo. He wishes he hadn't let Frank write his profile.