Steve Starr
- Cincinnati, Kansas City and Philadelphia have the highest regular-season win totals (11.5)
- Chicago (7.5) and Tampa Bay (6.5) look like two of the safest bets to go under this year
- The Chiefs host the Lions on Thursday, September 7 to kick off the 2023 NFL season
While we’re still over two months away from the start of the 2023 NFL season, it’s an excellent time to examine team win totals and get some over/under bets on the board.
Which offseason hype bunnies are overrated? What clubs will exceed expectations? Before we dive in, here’s where you can find the best Super Bowl betting tips and the top betting sites for NFL football in 2023.
Regular Season Wins
| Team | Wins |  |
| Arizona Cardinals | Under 4½ Wins | -125 |
| Over 4½ Wins | -105 | |
| Atlanta Falcons | Over 8½ Wins | -130 |
| Under 8½ Wins | +100 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | Under 10½ Wins | -125 |
| Over 10½ Wins | -105 | |
| Buffalo Bills | Over 10½ Wins | -140 |
| Under 10½ Wins | +110 | |
| Carolina Panthers | Over 7½ Wins | -125 |
| Under 7½ Wins | -105 | |
| Chicago Bears | Over 7½ Wins | -115 |
| Under 7½ Wins | -105 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Under 11½ Wins | -145 |
| Over 11½ Wins | +115 | |
| Cleveland Browns | Under 9½ Wins | -140 |
| Over 9½ Wins | +110 | |
| Dallas Cowboys | Over 9½ Wins | -170 |
| Under 9½ Wins | +140 | |
| Denver Broncos | Under 8½ Wins | -125 |
| Over 8½ Wins | -105 | |
| Detroit Lions | Over 9½ Wins | -140 |
| Under 9½ Wins | +110 | |
| Green Bay Packers | Over 7½ Wins | -130 |
| Under 7½ Wins | +100 | |
| Houston Texans | Under 6½ Wins | -145 |
| Over 6½ Wins | +115 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | Over 6½ Wins | -135 |
| Under 6½ Wins | +105 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Over 9½ Wins | -150 |
| Under 9½ Wins | +120 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | Over 11½ Wins | -140 |
| Under 11½ Wins | +110 | |
| Las Vegas Raiders | Over 6½ Wins | -130 |
| Under 6½ Wins | +100 | |
| Los Angeles Chargers | Over 9½ Wins | -125 |
| Under 9½ Wins | -105 | |
| Los Angeles Rams | Under 6½ Wins | -130 |
| Over 6½ Wins | +100 | |
| Miami Dolphins | Over 9½ Wins | -125 |
| Under 9½ Wins | -105 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | Over 8½ Wins | -130 |
| Under 8½ Wins | +100 | |
| New England Patriots | Over 7½ Wins | -125 |
| Under 7½ Wins | -105 | |
| New Orleans Saints | Under 9 Wins | -120 |
| Over 9 Wins | -110 | |
| New York Giants | Over 7½ Wins | -115 |
| Under 7½ Wins | -115 | |
| New York Jets | Over 9½ Wins | -130 |
| Under 9½ Wins | +100 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Under 11½ Wins | -125 |
| Over 11½ Wins | -105 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Over 8½ Wins | -165 |
| Under 8½ Wins | +135 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | Over 10½ Wins | -150 |
| Under 10½ Wins | +120 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | Over 8½ Wins | -160 |
| Under 8½ Wins | 130 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Under 6½ Wins | -145 |
| Over 6½ Wins | +115 | |
| Tennessee Titans | Under 7½ Wins | -130 |
| Over 7½ Wins | +100 | |
| Washington Commanders | Over 6½ Wins | -130 |
| Under 6½ Wins | +100 |
Atlanta Falcons: Over 8.5 wins (-130)
Atlanta has the second-easiest strength of schedule in the NFL, according to Sharp Football Analysis. While their NFC South rivals in New Orleans have an even softer slate, Saints head coach Dennis Allen has a 18-47 career record.
Unfortunately, the Falcons are rolling with second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder. However, they’re loaded with young talent like Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and No. 8 pick Bijan Robinson. Arthur Smith is going to run the hell out of the ball behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. The Dirty Birds are good for at least 10 wins.
Bijan Robinson's top-5 RBs of all time 👀 pic.twitter.com/mddH9XeBqd
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) June 21, 2023
Chicago Bears: Under 7.5 wins (-105)
Chicago finished with the worst record (3-14) in the NFL in 2022. Many expect Justin Fields to make the leap this year, but why exactly? Matt Eberflus’ club dropped their final ten games, failing to score more than 20 points in each of their last six contests.
They finished with the worst interception rate in the NFL while giving up a sack on 13.3% of dropbacks – the highest rate since the 2002 Texans. There’s little reason to believe Da Bears will improve by five victories with the same coaching staff and quarterback in place.
Take the OVER on Seattle and Dallas
Seattle (8.5) and Dallas (9.5) are undervalued by oddsmakers. While the juice is high on both wagers, each bet seems relatively safe given the overall weakness of the NFC. After acing the draft last year, the Seahawks added premium talent at corner (Devon Witherspoon), receiver (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) and running back (Zach Charbonnet) in April.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys are loaded on both sides of the ball with explosive weapons on offense (Cee Dee Lamb, Tony Pollard) and defense (Micah Parsons). As always in Arlington, the only question is the coaching staff.
The #Seahawks are expected to be a very dynamic offense in 2023. With this collection of weapons, easily the best Geno Smith has had in his pro career, there’s no reason he shouldn’t lead a top-10 unit. https://t.co/6kSfCMWfhu pic.twitter.com/YZsxA2lnYY
— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) June 21, 2023
Bet the UNDER on bad teams
Tampa Bay plans to start an unholy combination of Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask at QB. With the Buccaneers taking their salary cap medicine and perhaps tanking for Caleb Williams, they will easily go under 6.5 wins (-145).
Arizona has the worst roster in the NFL. Expect the Cardinals to sit “Call of Duty” Kyler for all of 2023 while he recovers from a torn ACL and then move to replace him in next year’s draft.
QBs Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask warming up. #Bucs pic.twitter.com/PP6XaNtBPd
— PewterReport 🏴☠️ (@PewterReport) June 13, 2023
Trust two Hall of Fame coaches
Projected for 7.5 and 8.5 victories respectively, New England and Pittsburgh have the lowest win totals amongst teams in their division. While the AFC East and AFC North are loaded, it would be surprising to see either Bill Belichick or Mike Tomlin finish in last.
The Patriots switched offensive coordinators from Matt Patricia to Bill O’Brien. There’s also unrest in Buffalo, “can he stay healthy?” questions around Tua Tagovailoa in Miami, and “is he washed up?” concerns around Rodgers in New York. Regarding the Steelers, they crushed the 2023 NFL Draft and Mike Tomlin has famously never finished under .500 in 16 years as a head coach.
See below the top sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
