Best Bets to go Over and Under on 2023 NFL Team Win Totals

  • Cincinnati, Kansas City and Philadelphia have the highest regular-season win totals (11.5)   
  • Chicago (7.5) and Tampa Bay (6.5) look like two of the safest bets to go under this year  
  • The Chiefs host the Lions on Thursday, September 7 to kick off the 2023 NFL season

While we’re still over two months away from the start of the 2023 NFL season, it’s an excellent time to examine team win totals and get some over/under bets on the board.

Which offseason hype bunnies are overrated? What clubs will exceed expectations? Before we dive in, here’s where you can find the best Super Bowl betting tips and the top betting sites for NFL football in 2023.

Regular Season Wins

TeamWinsBovada
Arizona CardinalsUnder 4½ Wins-125
Over 4½ Wins-105
Atlanta FalconsOver 8½ Wins-130
Under 8½ Wins+100
Baltimore RavensUnder 10½ Wins-125
Over 10½ Wins-105
Buffalo BillsOver 10½ Wins-140
Under 10½ Wins+110
Carolina PanthersOver 7½ Wins-125
Under 7½ Wins-105
Chicago BearsOver 7½ Wins-115
Under 7½ Wins-105
Cincinnati BengalsUnder 11½ Wins-145
Over 11½ Wins+115
Cleveland BrownsUnder 9½ Wins-140
Over 9½ Wins+110
Dallas CowboysOver 9½ Wins-170
Under 9½ Wins+140
Denver BroncosUnder 8½ Wins-125
Over 8½ Wins-105
Detroit LionsOver 9½ Wins-140
Under 9½ Wins+110
Green Bay PackersOver 7½ Wins-130
Under 7½ Wins+100
Houston TexansUnder 6½ Wins-145
Over 6½ Wins+115
Indianapolis ColtsOver 6½ Wins-135
Under 6½ Wins+105
Jacksonville JaguarsOver 9½ Wins-150
Under 9½ Wins+120
Kansas City ChiefsOver 11½ Wins-140
Under 11½ Wins+110
Las Vegas RaidersOver 6½ Wins-130
Under 6½ Wins+100
Los Angeles ChargersOver 9½ Wins-125
Under 9½ Wins-105
Los Angeles RamsUnder 6½ Wins-130
Over 6½ Wins+100
Miami DolphinsOver 9½ Wins-125
Under 9½ Wins-105
Minnesota VikingsOver 8½ Wins-130
Under 8½ Wins+100
New England PatriotsOver 7½ Wins-125
Under 7½ Wins-105
New Orleans SaintsUnder 9 Wins-120
Over 9 Wins-110
New York GiantsOver 7½ Wins-115
Under 7½ Wins-115
New York JetsOver 9½ Wins-130
Under 9½ Wins+100
Philadelphia EaglesUnder 11½ Wins-125
Over 11½ Wins-105
Pittsburgh SteelersOver 8½ Wins-165
Under 8½ Wins+135
San Francisco 49ersOver 10½ Wins-150
Under 10½ Wins+120
Seattle SeahawksOver 8½ Wins-160
Under 8½ Wins130
Tampa Bay BuccaneersUnder 6½ Wins-145
Over 6½ Wins+115
Tennessee TitansUnder 7½ Wins-130
Over 7½ Wins+100
Washington CommandersOver 6½ Wins-130
Under 6½ Wins+100

Atlanta Falcons: Over 8.5 wins (-130)

Atlanta has the second-easiest strength of schedule in the NFL, according to Sharp Football Analysis. While their NFC South rivals in New Orleans have an even softer slate, Saints head coach Dennis Allen has a 18-47 career record.

Unfortunately, the Falcons are rolling with second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder. However, they’re loaded with young talent like Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and No. 8 pick Bijan Robinson. Arthur Smith is going to run the hell out of the ball behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. The Dirty Birds are good for at least 10 wins.

Chicago Bears: Under 7.5 wins (-105)

Chicago finished with the worst record (3-14) in the NFL in 2022. Many expect Justin Fields to make the leap this year, but why exactly? Matt Eberflus’ club dropped their final ten games, failing to score more than 20 points in each of their last six contests.

They finished with the worst interception rate in the NFL while giving up a sack on 13.3% of dropbacks – the highest rate since the 2002 Texans. There’s little reason to believe Da Bears will improve by five victories with the same coaching staff and quarterback in place.

Atlanta FalconsOver 8.5 Wins
★★★★★
-130
Bet now
Chicago BearsUnder 7.5 Wins
★★★★★
-105
Bet now

Take the OVER on Seattle and Dallas

Seattle (8.5) and Dallas (9.5) are undervalued by oddsmakers. While the juice is high on both wagers, each bet seems relatively safe given the overall weakness of the NFC. After acing the draft last year, the Seahawks added premium talent at corner (Devon Witherspoon), receiver (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) and running back (Zach Charbonnet) in April.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are loaded on both sides of the ball with explosive weapons on offense (Cee Dee Lamb, Tony Pollard) and defense (Micah Parsons). As always in Arlington, the only question is the coaching staff.

Bet the UNDER on bad teams

Tampa Bay plans to start an unholy combination of Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask at QB. With the Buccaneers taking their salary cap medicine and perhaps tanking for Caleb Williams, they will easily go under 6.5 wins (-145).

Arizona has the worst roster in the NFL. Expect the Cardinals to sit “Call of Duty” Kyler for all of 2023 while he recovers from a torn ACL and then move to replace him in next year’s draft.

Trust two Hall of Fame coaches

Projected for 7.5 and 8.5 victories respectively, New England and Pittsburgh have the lowest win totals amongst teams in their division. While the AFC East and AFC North are loaded, it would be surprising to see either Bill Belichick or Mike Tomlin finish in last.

The Patriots switched offensive coordinators from Matt Patricia to Bill O’Brien. There’s also unrest in Buffalo, “can he stay healthy?” questions around Tua Tagovailoa in Miami, and “is he washed up?” concerns around Rodgers in New York. Regarding the Steelers, they crushed the 2023 NFL Draft and Mike Tomlin has famously never finished under .500 in 16 years as a head coach.

Tampa Bay BuccaneersUnder 6.5 wins
★★★★★
-145
Bet now

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Steve is the quintessential American sports enthusiast. He has mastered the art of Sundays, devoting them to football, and barbecue parties. He proudly wears the hats of a good father, husband and a great dog owner. Aside from his decades of contributing to different top-tier sports publications, Steve has also found his niche on Twitter, where he publishes funny and relatable sports-related insights. When he's not busy tweeting, Steve loves to watch each game unfold live. He possesses an innate talent for finding humor in the sports world, appreciating both the thrilling moments and the comedic mishaps that make each event unique.

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