Novak Djokovic is a short-priced favorite to win at Wimbledon for the eighth time, but he looks a good pick to equal Roger Federer’s record.
Who do Bettors Favor?
Checking out the best-rated online sportsbooks it’s clear that Novak Djokovic is the favorite with bettors to win Wimbledon for an eighth time. The 2021 and 2022 winner is rated as a -175 shot to win, ahead of Carlos Alcaraz, who is the +350 second favorite. Those two are well clear in the betting from Jannik Sinner, Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev.
|Wimbledon Men's Singles|
ATP Wimbledon Betting Briefing
Wimbledon is the oldest of the four Grand Slam events, and in some ways considered the most prestigious, although it is also the most unique of the big tournaments. The clay court season may be relatively short, but the entirety of the ATP grass court season is crammed into four weeks, leading up to Wimbledon and ending when that tournament is concluded.
The quirks of grass court tennis mean that not every player is able to produce their best on the surface, and that has led to a handful of top players dominating the event. Pete Sampras was the dominant player of the 1990s, while Roger Federer won five in a row between 2003 and 2007, and it is Federer’s all-time record of eight titles that Novak Djokovic is aiming to match this year.
ATP Wimbledon Favorites
Novak Djokovic’s Wimbledon dominance has not quite been as extensive as that he has imposed on the Australian Open, but he has won the last four in a row and even when he hasn’t been at his best, he has proven to be near impossible to beat on the grass courts in London.
Carlos Alcaraz is the main challenger to Djokovic’s crown on the ATP Tour, but while he would be attractively priced at these odds on any other surface, grass does not usually bring out the best in him. He did recently win a grass court competition at Queen’s, but winning there did not involve facing any of the top 15 ranked players, and he had his vulnerable moments even against lower opposition.
He may be a short price, therefore, but Djokovic looks a far better wager than his closest rival and even at the current odds, could still represent value.
ATP Wimbledon Contenders
Djokovic’s chances are further enhanced by the poor form of the main contenders among the chasing pack of possible winners. Alexander Zverev was beaten in Halle last week by Alexander Bublik and anyone picking him to win this event is taking it on trust that he can return to his best form. Jannik Sinner also looks a risky betting option, after his retirement in the same tournament last week.
Of those prominent in the betting, Daniil Medvedev is a more viable proposition. He has yet to make a mark at Wimbledon, but he has the game to succeed there, and looks particularly dangerous in fast conditions. His form has been poor, however, as he has lost three of his last five and repeatedly struggled in recent grass court events, so as with Zverev, anyone picking Medvedev is doing so on trust.
Nick Kyrgios will provide plenty of entertainment and did reach the final last year, but he has hardly played for several months and it is asking a lot for such a mercurial player to shake off the rust and rediscover his best form on the Wimbledon stage. There are also doubts over Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has yet to get past Round Four at Wimbledon and who has been out of form in matches leading up to this, while Holger Rune has never really convinced on this surface.
Taylor Fritz, on the other hand, looks like a solid grass court contender, with a hefty serve and the ability to cope with the lightning-fast Wimbledon courts. He hasn’t been at his best in two grass court events so far this summer, but the quarter-final place he reached at Wimbledon last year remains his best Grand Slam performance so far. He has yet to show that he can match the very best in Djokovic, but if the draw opened up and Djokovic had a bad day, Fritz could be a good option.
Sebastian Korda could also be a serious contender. He had some excellent wins on his way to the semi-final at Queen’s and didn’t drop a single set against Frances Tiafoe or Cameron Norrie, so with more improvement to come, could go deep into the tournament. And although Tiafoe was disappointing at Queen’s, he did win the Stuttgart tournament, so could be another potential pick for the shortlist, along with Andrey Rublev, who got to the final in Halle and who has good stats on grass courts.