The 2022 Wimbledon finalist is underrated in the Wimbledon futures betting markets but Ons Jabeur looks like a good pick for Grand Slam glory this week.
Who do Bettors Favor?
Checking out the best-rated online sportsbooks we can see that bettors favor Aryna Sabalenka to win Wimbledon for the first time. The Australian Open champion is rated as a +140 chance with some bookmakers, while Ons Jabeur, her semi-final opponent, is the second favorite. Elina Svitolina and Marketa Vondrousova, who meet in the other semi-final, are both rated as outsiders.
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Sabalenka Aiming for Top Spot
Aryna Sabalenka has been the main challenger to Iga Swiatek this season so far and she is one win away from replacing the French Open champion at the top of the WTA rankings.
Going into this season, she was widely regarded as a dominant hard-court player, but her ability on other surfaces was in question, as was her consistency. But she has answered those criticisms in fine style, landing her first Grand Slam title in Australia, and going to the semi-final in Paris, and she has been demonstrating at Wimbledon that she can be just as dangerous on grass.
On her way to her second Wimbledon semi-final, she has dropped only one set and disposed of both Ekaterina Alexandrova and Madison Keys – both winners this season – with little difficulty, and she has the ability to blow anyone away, providing she continues to keep the error count low. But she is up against a wily competitor in Ons Jabeur in her semi-final.
Underrated Jabeur Can Prove a Point
Bookmakers and some tennis fans continue to underestimate Ons Jabeur but at some point, she is surely going to land her first Grand Slam, and she has a good opportunity in 2023.
Jabeur reached the final last season, only to be beaten by Elena Rybakina, so the fact that she beat Rybakina in this year’s semi-final could prove to be of huge significance. Before that win, she had beaten Bianca Andreescu and two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova, so on paper at least, her form is even more impressive than Sabalenka’s.
She has a 1-3 win-loss deficit to overturn against Sabalenka, including a defeat in the 2021 Wimbledon quarter-finals, but Jabeur has also improved since then, gaining greater control over her array of shots and developing a more judicious approach to strategy.
It will be important for her not to be blown away in the early stages against Sabalenka, but if she can stay in the match, her grass court skills, battling qualities and sharp strategic approach give her a great chance of beating the favorite. And with a good recent record against Elina Svitolina and strong grass court credentials against Marketa Vondrousova, she will be confident of beating either in the final.
Vondrousova Offers Little Value in Futures Market
Marketa Vondrousova has had a remarkable Wimbledon and goes into her semi-final against Elina Svitolina as a clear favorite to win that game, but she doesn’t offer much value in the Futures betting.
Her path to the semi-final has been difficult, and yet she has successfully overcome four seeded players: Jessica Pegula, Donna Vekic, Veronica Kudermetova and Marie Bouzkova, showing great resilience in the process, not least when she rallied from 4-1 down against Pegula in the deciding set.
She certainly has the power of serve and strength of groundstroke to trouble most opponents, but will she have the guile and patience to match Svitolina if the match goes to a third set, as three of her last four games have done. She may come through that test but the current odds overrate her chances significantly and she doesn’t make much appeal either in the futures or the semi-final markets.
Svitolina Can Make Final
Having given birth just nine months ago, the return of Elina Svitolina to the top table of WTA tennis has been remarkable, but given her pedigree as a former world-ranked number three, it is perhaps not that surprising. She has certainly gained the support of the Wimbledon crowd who cheered her all the way in her quarter-final victory over Iga Swiatek.
Her style of play has a lot to do with that popularity, and her control and elegant strokeplay will be a marked contrast to the power brought by her semi-final opponent, who will start as favorite.
She has lost her last two matches against Marketa Vondrousova, but neither of those was on grass and she holds a 3-2 head-to-head lead overall. She would be a big underdog against either Sabalenka or Jabeur in the showpiece matchup, but she looks a good pick to make the final.