Novak Djokovic is the big favorite to clinch another title, but his semi-final opponent Jannik Sinner could be the best bet to spring a Wimbledon surprise.
Who do Bettors Favor?
Checking out the best-rated online sportsbooks it is not a huge surprise to see that Novak Djokovic is the overwhelming favorite to win Wimbledon this year with bettors. He is rated at around -200, while his main rival Carlos Alcaraz is available at between +238 and +275 and Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner are rated as underdogs at +1000 and higher.
|Men's Singles Title
Djokovic Looking Hard to Beat
While the women’s tournament has provided surprises and twists, the men’s Wimbledon event has been relatively predictable and the last four men standing were the top four in the betting going into the tournament, with Novak Djokovic still looking hard to beat.
The Serb’s unbeaten run at Wimbledon now stands at 33, and he has been in solid form throughout as he bids to equal Roger Federer’s eight Wimbledon titles, dropping two sets along the way. He was 1-0 down to Andrey Rublev in the quarter-final, but came through that test in style, winning the next set 6-1 and closing out the next two with familiar efficiency.
His path to the trophy, however, is not an easy one. He will have to get past Jannik Sinner, who pushed him hard at this tournament last year, and most likely overcome the tournament’s top seed, Carlos Alcaraz, in the final. He will start both of those games as favorite, but even so, his odds look too short at this stage for a player in his 37th year.
Alcaraz a Risky Bet
There is a case to be made for Carlos Alcaraz being slightly underestimated among some tennis bettors, perhaps because his clay court excellence encourages comparisons with the great Nadal. His performances on grass and on faster courts in general have been slightly better than he is given credit for and he has reached the semi-final stage this year dropping only two sets.
When it comes to the futures betting market this year, however, he rates as a risky bet given that he must first get past a tricky semi-final opponent and then beat Djokovic. Looking more closely at his form in this event, it is also apparent that he hasn’t been as dominant as the scorelines suggest, and both Nicolas Jarry and Matteo Berrettini had chances to push him harder.
At the age of 20, he is still improving as a player, of course, but much of that improvement is already factored in and at this stage in the tournament he isn’t a great bet.
Sinner Offers Some Value
Jannik Sinner is a huge underdog both in his semi-final against Djokovic and in the futures tournament winners market, but he could offer some value here.
To get to the summit at Wimbledon, he of course has to pull off the toughest challenge of all and overcome Djokovic in their semi-final. The good news for Sinner backers is that there is some evidence to support his claim here, most notably what happened at last year’s tournament.
Facing Djokovic in the quarter-finals, he established a 2-0 lead before eventually losing a five-set classic to the seven-time champion. That performance, however, means that Sinner is only the third player to push Djokovic to five sets during his 33-match unbeaten Wimbledon run, the other two being Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, which puts the Italian in illustrious company.
Like Djokovic, he has also been in good form throughout the tournament, and has also dropped only two sets, and seems to be slightly underestimated by the market, so could be worth backing in both the semi-final match market and the Wimbledon futures betting.
Medvedev Vulnerable in Last Four
Daniil Medvedev dropped only one set on his way to the quarter-finals but was taken to five sets by surprise contender Chris Eubanks in that match, and there are concerns about Medvedev’s ability to match his semi-final opponent Carlos Alcaraz.
On this surface, conventional wisdom suggests that Medvedev has a chance of pushing Alcaraz closer than would be the case on clay or hard court, but the concern for Medvedev fans is that his own game can be vulnerable. He had to dig deep to see off Eubanks in the last eight and was also made to struggle against Marton Fucsovics in the fourth round, and any similar vulnerabilities here would be ruthlessly exposed by Alcaraz.
Fundamentally, the quality of the players he has already beaten is a long way short of the standard that he would need to reach to win this competition, and of the four remaining contenders, he looks the most vulnerable.