Iga Swiatek is once again the favorite to win a Grand Slam event, but Elena Rybakina looks like a better pick ahead of the Wimbledon women’s singles tournament.
Who do Bettors Favor?
Checking out the best-rated online sportsbooks it is clear that bettors favor world number one Iga Swiatek, but not by the usual wide margin. Swiatek is best-priced at +300, while former champion Elena Rybakina and Swiatek’s main challenger this year, Aryna Sabalenka, are at around +500. Petra Kvitova heads the chasing pack at +1200, followed by Ons Jabeur and Cori Gauff at +1600.
WTA Wimbledon Betting Briefing
The oldest of the Grand Slam events, Wimbledon is for many tennis fans the highlight of the season, and certainly the most distinctive of the major events. This is mainly due to the fact that grass is the least common of the three main surfaces, and the WTA grass court season is around four weeks long, squeezed into the gap between the end of the French Open and Wimbledon.
Grass court tennis presents a different challenge to players from clay and hard court tennis. The natural variations in the surface make it relatively unpredictable, particularly if it becomes overly dry or wet, while grass is also the fastest surface, with the lowest bounce, so it offers plenty of reward for big servers. Precision strokes are also harder at Wimbledon than at any other Grand Slam event, so players known as shot-makers can also have an advantage, though the best players can often thrive on any surface.
WTA Wimbledon Favorites
Iga Swiatek has the potential to dominate women’s tennis in the same style as Serena Williams, Steffi Graff, Chris Evert and Martina Navratilova, but if there is a weakness in her game, it is grass-court tennis.
When considering the very best players, it can be a mistake to assume that they can’t succeed on any surface, and it would not be a huge surprise to see Swiatek win Wimbledon at some point in her WTA career, having already won it at Junior Grand Slam level. But I don’t think it will be this year.
Swiatek’s problem on grass is that she hasn’t mastered moving on the surface, and for a player who is all about speed across the court and lightning-fast groundstrokes, that severely limits her effectiveness, as does her relatively underpowered serve. Factor in the food poisoning that forced her to withdraw from the Bad Homburg semi-final and even at odds of +300 she doesn’t look like a good bet.
Her two rivals as favorites for Wimbledon are Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka. Sabalenka has beaten Swiatek this season, and has improved greatly on clay, so could yet unlock the secrets of grass court tennis, but she has yet to reach the final of a grass court event, and was not impressive in Berlin.
Instead, the best bet is to stick with Rybakina. She wasn’t that impressive in Berlin but she usually needs a match or two to adjust when switching surfaces and grass is definitely her most effective surface, as her serve is a weapon that few players can handle. Her path to the semi-finals looks relatively straightforward and she should be a much shorter price than Sabalenka.
WTA Wimbledon Contenders
Outside of the three favorites, the Wimbledon betting markets suggest there are three main contenders: Petra Kvitova, Cori Gauff, and Ons Jabeur.
Kvitova is a two-time Wimbledon champion, although has not been beyond the fourth round since 2014 and has not made the final of a Grand Slam since 2019. She has been having an excellent season, but there are better, younger players in this event, and it is asking a lot for her to rise to Wimbledon winning level at this point in her career.
Gauff is one of those rising stars, but grass is not her best surface and tends to put her on the defensive, so of the contenders, Ons Jabeur looks the best option. The popular Tunisian was not that impressive in Eastbourne or Berlin, but she is an extremely effective grass court player, with a variety of strokes and a hunger for Grand Slam success that should once again take her deep into this competition.
Another improving player worth a look is Karolina Muchova. She has a Wimbledon quarter-final to her name and is coming into top form, pushing Iga Swiatek close in the French Open final. She hasn’t played a warm-up tournament, so there is a slight risk here, but her price offers plenty of compensation.
Jelena Ostapenko would be a popular Wimbledon winner but probably lacks the consistency on this surface to make her a serious winning threat, and there are question marks over some of the other bigger priced contenders on this surface, but Barbora Krejcikova could be worth adding to your betting list.
Krejcikova’s record on grass is not great, but she reached a grass court final for the first time in her career in Birmingham a couple of weeks ago, and has twice won the doubles tournament, while her tactical acumen and strong net play should be well suited to the surface.
Best Online Sportsbooks to Bet on Wimbledon