Best UFC Vegas 74 Co-Main Event Bets: Pick Caceres to beat Pineda

  • What: UFC Vegas 74 fight card
  • Co-Main Event: Alex Caceres vs. Daniel Pineda
  • Date: Saturday, June 3, 2023
  • Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Time: Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET) Main Card (9:00 p.m. ET)
  • How to Watch: ESPN+ and ESPN

The UFC Vegas 74 fight card takes place on June 3 at UFC Apex. The card, also known as UFC on ESPN 46, features a flyweight main event. In that scrap, Kai Kara-France, who is the No. 3 fighter in the official UFC flyweight rankings, faces No. 7 ranked Amir Albazi. The evening’s co-main event is a featherweight bout between Alex Caceres and Daniel Pineda. Here is some background on the evening’s co-headliners before we discuss the betting breakdown for the UFC Vegas 74 fight card.

Caceres has been with the UFC since 2011. He has a career record of 20-13-0-1, with four knockouts, seven submissions, and nine decision victories. Currently the No. 15 fighter in the official UC featherweight rankings, Caceres is coming off a December TKO win over Julian Erosa. Caceres is 6-1, dating back to July 2019.

Pineda is in his second stint with the UFC. He went 3-4 between January 2012 and March 2014. Since coming back to the UFC in 2020, Pineda has a record of 2-1-0-1. He is coming off a March submission win over Tucker Lutz. Pineda’s career mark is 28-14-0-2. He has nine knockouts, 19 submissions, and zero decision victories.

Before we look at the best bets for the co-main event of the UFC Vegas 74 card between Alex Caceres and Daniel Pineda, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.

UFC Vegas 74 co-main event: Alex Caceres vs. Daniel Pineda betting picks

FightersBetOnline ReviewBovadaBetUS ReviewGTBets Review
Alex Caceres-163-165-165-165
Daniel Pineda+143+135+135+135

Alex Caceres vs. Daniel Pineda betting breakdown

Alex Caceres was on the best run of his UFC career when he faced Sodiq Yusuff in March 2022. He was riding a five-fight winning streak heading into that fight. Caceres’ winning ways ended in that fight when the judges awarded Yusuff a unanimous decision. Caceres bounced back from that defeat with his first knockout win via strikes since 2010 when he stopped Julian Erosa in the first round of their December matchup.

Caceres is a well-rounded fighter, and he seems to have finally put all his tools together into an effective package. At 34, Caceres has come into his own as a true mixed martial artist, and he is also surging with confidence. A flashy striker with a good ground game, Caceres can compete wherever he needs to inside the octagon.

Pineda is a tough fighter. He uses powerful leg strikes to slow his opponents and has strong submission skills. What he lacks is striking defense. He spends far too much time with his guard around his midsection, which opens him up to head strikes, and with Caceres focusing most of his striking in that area, Pineda will get hit by Caceres. Pineda will also going to struggle to get to Caceres with his kicks, because Caceres is fast on his feet and has a height advantage over Pineda.

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Alex Caceres vs. Daniel Pineda statistical breakdown

Caceres is the taller and rangier fighter. He brings a three-inch height advantage and a four-inch reach advantage into his bout opposite Pineda, which is not insignificant when it comes to the styles of these two competitors. Caceres’ physical advantages will play a role in that he will be able to hit Pineda and move out of distance before Pineda can counter. That will be especially true if Pineda relies on his usual leg-kick-heavy approach.

Caceres outlands Pineda in significant strikes 4.16 to 3.32 and gets hit less often at 2.92 significant strikes absorbed per minute vs. 3.03 for Pineda. Caceres striking defense is also much better at 64 percent to his foe’s 48 percent.

As for the grappling stats, Pineda is more apt to use his takedowns and go for submissions, but he only focuses on wrestling or grappling once he has exhausted his striking attacks or gets hurt on the feet. With that, this should be a striking battle above all, and that favors Caceres.

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Best UFC Vegas 74 Bets

On paper, it appears as if this will be a striking battle. With that, the best bet for the co-main event of UFC Vegas 74 is for an Alex Caceres victory. With Pineda’s background in jiu-jitsu, I think he will be able to fend off any submission attempts from Caceres, so a submission finish is not likely, and with Caceres being more of a technical striker than a knockout artist, I don’t see the fight ending via knockout either. If one is looking to wager on the outcome of the UFC Vegas 74 co-main event, there is value in betting on Alex Caceres to win via decision.

Best UFC Vegas 74 betting pick: Alex Caceres to beat Daniel Pineda via decision.

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Trent Reinsmith

Trent covers UFC and MMA for MTS. He has written for USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively among others. He has been involved with MMA since he and some friends threw some money together to purchase the pay-per-view of UFC 1, and the rest is history.

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