Best UFC 303 Main Event Betting Picks: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2

  • What: UFC 303 Main Event
  • Who: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2
  • Date: Saturday, June 29, 2024
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
  • How to Watch:  Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)

UFC 303 has a new main event. An injury knocked Conor McGregor out of his scheduled UFC 303 bout against Michael Chandler. With that highly-anticipated contest off the card, the UFC booked a rematch between UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira and former titleholder Jiri Prochazka to headline the June 29 fight card that takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The two first met in November 2023 with Pereira scoring a second-round TKO win to earn the vacant UFC crown. Here is some background on Pereira and Prochazka before we look at the betting breakdown for UFC 303.

Alex Pereira (10-2) is a former UFC middleweight champion. He claimed the UFC light heavyweight crown in his second fight at 205 pounds for the UFC with his win over Prochazka. Pereira defended that belt in April with a first-round knockout win over another ex-UFC champion in Jamahal Hill.

Jiri Prochazka (29-4-1) won UFC gold in June 2022 with a submission victory over Glover Teixeira. Prochazka was forced to surrender that title shortly after winning it due to a severe shoulder injury. His first fight back from that layoff was his loss to Pereira. Prochazka is coming off an April TKO win over Aleksandar Rakic.

Before we look at the best bets for the Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka rematch on the UFC 303 PPV card,  check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.

UFC 303 main event: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2 betting picks

FightersBetOnline ReviewBovadaBetUS ReviewMyBookie Review
Alex Pereira-160-175-165-173
Jiri Prochazka+140+145+135+134

UFC 303: Alex Pereira Betting Breakdown

A former two-division Glory kickboxing championAlex Pereira entered the UFC with elite striking skills. Those abilities, and his history with Israel Adesanya under the Glory banner, earned him a quick title shot in the middleweight division. Pereira did not waste his opportunity, as he knocked out Adesanya to claim the 185-pound title. He gave the title back to Adesanya in his next outing. Pereira then moved up to the more natural weight of 205 pounds, where he claimed that division’s title in two UFC fights.

Pereira’s striking is top-notch. He has power and speed in his strikes. Especially noteworthy are Pereira’s calf kicks, which are devastating in their power but also nearly impossible to check because of how fast he throws those strikes. The champ often goes to the legs, landing 25 percent or more of his total strikes in his past three fights to his opponent’s legs. Those heavy leg strikes, which he throws early and often serve to set up his power strikes to the head.

If Pereira has a weakness, it’s his grappling, but judging from the first meeting between these two, that should be of little concern for Pereira, who has been improving in his grappling as he gets more UFC experience.

Pereira averages 5.10 significant strikes landed per minute with an accuracy of 62 percent. He absorbs 3.65 significant strikes per minute with a defense rate of 50 percent.

Alex Pereira TO BEAT JIRI PROCHAZKA
★★★★★
-160
Bet now

UFC 303: Jiri Prochazka Betting Breakdown

Jiri Prochazka is one of the most entertaining fighters on the current UFC roster. Of his 30 career victories, 26 have come by knockout and three via submission. His only win to have gone the distance came in 2016. All of his losses have come by stoppage (three knockouts and one submission). That information should let one know that Prochazka’s goal when he steps into the cage is to get the finish or be finished in the pursuit of a spectacular win. He is not a point fighter.

Prochazka is a durable fighter who trusts that his chin will stand up to any punishment. With that confidence, he sometimes takes defensive risks. In short, he is sometimes too willing to stand in the pocket and exchange with his opponents. He discovered that approach was dangerous in his first matchup with Pereira.

The knockout loss to Pereira did not diminish Prochazka’s risk-taking approach to fighting. He employs odd movement, but he fights with a low guard. He is incredibly susceptible to calf kicks, which take away his movement. When that happens he tends to dive into his strikes, which makes him a target for fast counters.

Prochazka lands 5.43 significant strikes per minute with a 56 percent landing rate. He gets hit with a fairly high 5.43 significant strikes per minute, and his defensive striking stands at 41 percent.

Jiri Prochazka TO BEAT ALEX PEREIRA
★★★★★
+145
Bet now

UFC 303 Betting Breakdown: Takeaways from Pereira vs. Prochazka 1

In their first meeting, Pereira targeted Prochazka’s lead leg early. The idea was to mess with Prochazka’s balance and to slow his forward movement. The low kicks also got Prochazka focused on his legs, opening up the options for Pereira to attack the body and head of his opponent. Judging from Prochazka’s performance against Rakic, this is not something the former champion has addressed.

While Prochazka has power, Pereira has power and technical skills. His kickboxing background provides him with many more tools and techniques.

Jiri Prochazka TO BEAT ALEX PEREIRA
★★★★★
+135
Bet now
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Best Bets: UFC 303 Main Event – Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2

With little time to prepare for the short-notice rematch between Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka, don’t expect a different result from the first time these men met. Pereira is too technically sound, and Prochazka is too much of a risk-taker to have things work out any differently. The betting pick is for Alex Pereira to beat Jiri Prochazka by knockout at UFC 303.

Alex Pereira TO BEAT JIRI PROCHAZKA
★★★★★
-173
Bet now

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Trent Reinsmith

Trent is a professional sports journalist specializing in UFC, MMA, and esports coverage. His work has been featured in prestigious publications such as USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively. Trent's connection to MMA dates back to the early days when he and his friends pooled their resources to purchase the pay-per-view broadcast of UFC 1. He also has extensive experience in esports, particularly League of Legends and Counter Strike, dating back to the game's launch.