- What: UFC 289 pay-per-view
- Main Event: Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana
- Date: Saturday, June 10, 2023
- Location: Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Time: Early Prelims (7:00 p.m. ET) Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET) Main Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+), Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
Amanda Nunes‘ UFC winning streak of more than seven years ended in December 2021 when Juliana Pena submitted the heavily favored Brazilian UFC bantamweight champion at UFC 269. Nunes regained her title in the rematch in July 2022. Nunes defends that title for the first time since that victory in the main event of the UFC 289 ESPN+ streaming pay-per-view card at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Irene Aldana enters the fight as the No. 5 fighter in the official UFC women’s bantamweight rankings. Here is some background on the UFC 289 main event fighters before we discuss the betting breakdown for UFC 289.
Nunes sports a 22-5 record. The 34-year-old, who also holds the UFC women’s featherweight title, first won the 135-pound belt in July 2016. She picked off Miesha Tate, Ronda Rousey, Cris Cyborg, Holly Holm, and Germaine de Randamie during her first title run before losing to Pena.
Aldana is a replacement fighter on this card. She stepped in when Pena was injured during training camp. The 35-year-old Mexican fighter is 14-6 and riding a two-fight winning streak ahead of UFC 289 with knockout wins over Yana Kunitskaya and Macy Chiasson.
Before we look at the best bets for the main event of the UFC 289 PPV card between Amanda Nunes and Irene Aldana, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC 289 main event: Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana betting picks
|To Win UFC 289 Main Event|
Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana betting breakdown
Amanda Nunes learned a lesson in her loss to Juliana Pena, and that is don’t take any opponent for granted and don’t assume that what that fighter did in the past will be any indication of how they will perform against you in a title fight. Pena utilized a game plan that Nunes was not ready for in that first fight. She corrected that in the rematch and cruised to a decision win, picking up all five rounds on each of the judge’s scorecards.
Irene Aldana is not a unknown. She has been with the UFC since 2016. Her record with the promotion is 7-4, with three knockouts, one submission, and three decisions. All of her UFC losses have come via decision. In her first UFC headliner, where she lost a decision to Holly Holm in October 2020, Aldana fought poorly. She and her team were unable to deal with and adjust to the aggressive manner in which Holm started the fight. She has since had two bounce-back wins, but expect Nunes, who is no stranger to aggression, to push things from the start of this fight and make Aldana uncomfortable. In the Holm fight, Aldana only landed 37 percent of her significant strikes and gave up five takedowns. Expect Nunes to use her striking and takedowns to keep Aldana from establishing any type of rhythm in this contest.
Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana statistical breakdown
The champion gives up an inch in height and reach to the challenger at UFC 289. Throughout their respective UFC careers, Aldana has been the more active striker, averaging 5.39 significant strikes per minute to Nunes’ 4.40. However, Nunes is more accurate, landing 51 percent of her significant strike attempts to Aldana’s 39 percent. Nunes also gets hit less than Aldana, at 2.75 significant strikes absorbed per minute compared to Aldana’s 5.71.
As for grappling stats, those favor the champion. Nunes averages 2.61 takedowns per 15 minutes to Aldana’s 0.20, and she has a superior submission average at 0.8 per 15 minutes compared to the challenger’s 0.3. Both fighters have strong takedown defense numbers, with Nunes halting 82 percent of takedowns attempted against her and Aldana checking in with an 81 percent takedown defense rate.
Best UFC 289 main event bets
The easy betting pick in the main event of UFC 289 is to go with Amanda Nunes to win and retain her title. There is some betting value in picking Aldana to claim an upset victory by knockout, but if one decides to make that wager, it should not be a large one. As for the final outcome of this contest, that’s a much harder pick. Depending on the prop bet odds, there is value in picking Nunes to win by knockout or submission, and I’d be inclined to lay small wagers on those finishes, but I think the best bet for UFC 289 is to pick Nunes to win via decision.
Best UFC 289 main event betting pick: Amanda Nunes to beat Irene Aldana via decision.
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